关于双重时序AR-MA模型的相关结构及与ARMA模型的比较

本文在文［４］的基础上讨论了双重时序ＡＲ（１）－ＭＡ（ｑ）模型的相关结构，在不假定白噪声序列为正态的情况下，证明了安鸿志［２］关于模型的相关结构的猜想是正确的，具体地构造了ＡＲ（１）－ＭＡ（３）模型的相关结构，并与ＡＲＭＡ模型进行了初步的比较，给出了一些抛砖引玉的讨论．     

狭义相对论效应──运动时钟变慢的计算机模拟演示实验

利用精炼的C语言进行程序设计，定量模拟狭义相结论的运动时钟变慢，并对处于两种不同时空观的时钟运行进行对比，使得时间膨胀效应变得直观。     

AN ESTIMATE ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND MOMENTS OF THE LAST EXIT TIME OF AN ELLIPTIC DIFFUSION PROCESS

Let LB be the last exit time from a compact set B of an elliptic diffusion process X. A moderate estimate for the distribution of LB is obtained, and the sufficient and necessary condition for Ex(LBk)<∞is proved.     

The Spirit Is Willing: Nonlinearity, Bifurcations, and Mental Control

In recent years there has been considerable interest in the construction of nonlinear models of the dynamics of human behavior. In this exploratory article we argue that attempts at controlling problematic thoughts, emotions, or behaviors can lead to nonlinearity in mental/behavioral dynamics. We illustrate our model by fitting threshold autoregression models to self-recorded time series of the daily highs in intensity of anxiety and obsessive ruminations, kept by an individual in therapy for this problem. In our discussion, we raise the possibility that bifurcations that occur in this nonlinear model may offer insight into mental control paradoxes.     

Global Optimal Image Reconstruction from Blurred Noisy Data by a Bayesian Approach

In this paper, a procedure is presented which allows the optimal reconstruction of images from blurred noisy data. The procedure relies on a general Bayesian approach, which makes proper use of all the available information. Special attention is devoted to the informative content of the edges; thus, a preprocessing phase is included, with the aim of estimating the jump sizes in the gray level. The optimization phase follows; existence and uniqueness of the solution is secured. The procedure is tested against simple simulated data and real data.     

Validation and verification of social processes within agent-based computational organization models

The use of simulation modeling in computational analysis of organizations is becoming a prominent approach in social science research. However, relying on simulations to gain intuition about social phenomena has significant implications. While simulations may give rise to interesting macro-level phenomena, and sometimes even mimic empirical data, the underlying micro and macro level processes may be far from realistic. Yet, this realism may be important to infer results that are relevant to existing theories of social systems and to policy making. Therefore, it is important to assess not only predictive capability but also explanation accuracy of formal models in terms of the degree of realism reflected by the embedded processes. This paper presents a process-centric perspective for the validation and verification (V&V) of agent-based computational organization models. Following an overview of the role of V&V within the life cycle of a simulation study, emergent issues in agent-based organization model V&V are outlined. The notion of social contract that facilitates capturing micro level processes among agents is introduced to enable reasoning about the integrity and consistency of agent-based organization designs. Social contracts are shown to enable modular compositional verification of interaction dynamics among peer agents. Two types of consistency are introduced: horizontal and vertical consistency. It is argued that such local consistency analysis is necessary, but insufficient to validate emergent macro processes within multi-agent organizations. As such, new formal validation metrics are introduced to substantiate the operational validity of emergent macro-level behavior. Levent Yilmaz is Assistant Professor of Computer Science and Engineering in the College of Engineering at Auburn University and co-founder of the Auburn Modeling and Simulation Laboratory of the M&SNet. Dr. Yilmaz received his Ph.D. and M.S. degrees from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech). His research interests are on advancing the theory and methodology of simulation modeling, agent-directed simulation (to explore dynamics of socio-technical systems, organizations, and human/team behavior), and education in simulation modeling. Dr. Yilmaz is a member of ACM, IEEE Computer Society, Society for Computer Simulation International, and Upsilon Pi Epsilon. URL: http://www.eng.auburn.edu/~yilmaz     

慢速饮酒血液中酒精含量的数学模型

描述的是在一定时间内慢慢地匀速喝完一定数量酒的问题,并建立了相应的数学模型.同时也建立了快速饮酒的数学模型,以及证明了在各次饮酒后的某时刻酒精含量的可叠加性.     

Incubation period in the 2,2,4,4‐tetramethyl‐1‐piperidinyloxy‐mediated thermal autopolymerization of styrene: Kinetics and simulations

Mechanisms and simulations of the induction period and the initial polymerization stages in the nitroxide‐mediated autopolymerization of styrene are discussed. At 120–125 °C and moderate 2,2,4,4‐tetramethyl‐1‐piperidinyloxy (TEMPO) concentrations (0.02–0.08 M), the main source of radicals is the hydrogen abstraction of the Mayo dimer by TEMPO [with the kinetic constant of hydrogen abstraction (k_h)]. At higher TEMPO concentrations ([N?] > 0.1 M), this reaction is still dominant, but radical generation by the direct attack against styrene by TEMPO, with kinetic constant of addition k_ad, also becomes relevant. From previous experimental data and simulations, initial estimates of k_h ≈ 1 and k_ad ≈ 6 × 10^?7 L mol^?1 s^?1 are obtained at 125 °C. From the induction period to the polymerization regime, there is an abrupt change in the dominant mechanism generating radicals because of the sudden decrease in the nitroxide radicals. Under induction‐period conditions, the simulations confirm the validity of the quasi‐steady‐state assumption (QSSA) for the Mayo dimer in this regime; however, after the induction period, the QSSA for the dimer is not valid, and this brings into question the scientific basis of the well‐known expression k_th[M]³ (where [M] is the monomer concentration and k_th is the kinetic constant of autoinitiation) for the autoinitiation rate in styrene polymerization. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 44: 6962‐6979, 2006     

Electrical properties of polypyrrole/p‐InP structure

The polypyrrole/p‐InP structure has been fabricated by the electrochemical polymerization of the organic polypyrrole onto the p‐InP substrate. The current–voltage (I–V), capacitance–voltage (C–V), and capacitance–frequency (C–f) characteristics of the PPy/p‐InP structure have been determined at room temperature. The structure showed nonideal I–V behavior with the ideality factor and the barrier height 1.48 and 0.69 eV respectively. C–f measurements of the structure have been carried out using the Schottky capacitance spectroscopy technique and it has been seen that there is a good agreement between the experimental and theoretical values. Also, it has been seen that capacitance almost show a plateau up to a certain value of frequency, after which, the capacitance decreases. The higher values of capacitance at low frequencies were attributed to the excess capacitance resulting from the interface states in equilibrium with the p‐InP that can follow the a.c. signal. The interface state density N_ss and relaxation time τ of the structure were determined from C–f characteristics. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 44: 1572–1579, 2006     

Spatiotemporal and Thermal Analysis of VCSEL for Short-range Gigabit Optical Links

High-speed Optoelectronic Modules using Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Lasers (VCSEL) coupled to Multi Mode Fibers (MMF) are a performing and low-cost solution for 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10 GbE) in short-distance optical links. A complete model of the spatiotemporal behavior of multimode VCSELs, through static and dynamic response, noise, thermal effects, and its coupling to MMF has been investigated. Relative Intensity Noise shows modal dependence and can be affected by spatial filtering due to coupling and fiber propagation. Simulations permit to evaluate critical parameters, such as modulation formats, launching conditions, and operating temperature for global bandwidth and eye diagram optimization up to 10 Gb/s. Simulation results are compared to measurements on prototype optoelectronic modules.