考虑设施中断情景的震后救援初期应急物流网络优化设计

在震后救援初期,构建合理的应急物流网络,对于快速有效供应应急物资、减轻灾情具有重大价值。在传统可靠性选址问题与应急设施选址-分配问题的基础上,考虑震后救援初期的阶段性特征、设施中断情景、多品种模糊需求、设施能力限制等因素,建立了一个适用于震后救援初期的应急设施选址-分配模型。通过三角模糊数的期望值公式将模糊需求去模糊化。在此基础上,考虑模型特点,设计了一种整数编码的混合遗传算法。最后,以5·12汶川地震为背景,构造算例进行数值仿真。验证了所提模型和算法。结果表明:考虑设施中断情景后,即使系统中的部分设施失效,整个网络仍能较好运行,且优化结果更具可靠性和稳健性。     

以颗粒物理原理认识地震——地震成因、地震前兆和地震预测

本文以地壳和地幔的基本构造和己有观测事实为依据,运用颗粒物理原理,将地壳和地幔作为大尺度离散态颗粒物质体系处理,重新认识地震孕育过程,前兆产生机制及规律,探求地震预测方法和途径.主要结果是:建立了地壳与地幔构成和运动的颗粒模型;提出了引发地震的大地构造力的形成机制,以及地震前兆信息产生和传播规律;说明了地震前兆信息的主要特征及其与地震发生之间的关联,阐述了探测有效地震前兆信息的方法原理;用颗粒流动的阻塞-解阻塞转变原理解释了深源地震发生机制;对以前难以理解的若干地震学现象进行了解释,并讨论了地震的可预测性。由于地壳和地幔的离散结构特征,对于地震孕育的准静力学过程,连续介质理论不再适用.以颗粒物理原理研究地震成因、地震前兆和地震预测,所获得的新认识与传统连续介质地震学观点有本质区别。     

On the recent seismic activity in North-Eastern Aegean Sea including the Mw5.8 earthquake on 8 January 2013

In the last week of November 2012, we announced that a strong electrotelluric disturbance, which we judged to be a Seismic Electric Signal (SES) activity, was recorded at station Assiros located in Northern Greece. This disturbance was actually followed by an M_w5.8 earthquake on 8 January 2013 in North-Eastern Aegean Sea. Here we show that, by analyzing this SES activity and employing the natural time analysis of subsequent seismicity, we estimated the epicentral location, magnitude and occurrence time which are reasonably compatible with those of the M_w5.8 event.     

2011年3月10日盈江5.8级地震诱发砂土液化灾害特征研究

2011年3月10日中缅边境附近的云南省德宏傣族景颇族自治州盈江县发生Ms5.8级地震,震源深度10km,造成25人死亡, 250人受伤, 13万人口受灾,众多构(建)筑物损毁,砂土液化广泛发育,约19km长的盈江河堤开裂。5.8级地震诱发如此大的次生灾害是近年来少有的。通过对本次地震地质背景和地质灾害调查分析,初步认识到:(1)本次地震是2011年初盈江4级震群继续增强活动的结果,近年来盈江地区地震群总体上呈现沿苏典断裂带从北至南逐渐迁移的趋势,本次地震是这一趋势的延续,位于苏典断裂南端,主余震显示本次地震破裂为苏典断裂与大盈江断裂的共轭破裂; (2)砂土液化是本次盈江地震震损严重的主要原因之一,在地表产生喷沙冒水、砂土体侧向滑动、地面开裂和下沉等次生地质灾害,对房屋、江堤、道路、水利设施和电线杆等构(建)筑物造成了较大破坏作用; (3)砂土液化主要发育在大盈江全新世粉细砂冲积层分布区,严重液化区主要为盈江的老河道,构(建)筑物损毁程度与液化区范围和强度有较好的对应关系,而晚更新世砂砾地层作为盈江的二级阶地不仅地势高、防洪能力强,其地基基础承载力高,抗砂土液化能力强,是盈江盆地内工程地质条件较好的地块,未发现砂土液化且构(建)筑震损轻微,可作为当地城镇未来规划发展的首选区域。     

The Effect of Catalogue Lead Time on Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasting with Application to New Zealand Data

‘Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale’ (EEPAS) is a catalogue-based model to forecast earthquakes within the coming months, years and decades, depending on magnitude. EEPAS has been shown to perform well in seismically active regions like New Zealand (NZ). It is based on the observation that seismicity increases prior to major earthquakes. This increase follows predictive scaling relations. For larger target earthquakes, the precursor time is longer and precursory seismicity may have occurred prior to the start of the catalogue. Here, we derive a formula for the completeness of precursory earthquake contributions to a target earthquake as a function of its magnitude and lead time, where the lead time is the length of time from the start of the catalogue to its time of occurrence. We develop two new versions of EEPAS and apply them to NZ data. The Fixed Lead time EEPAS (FLEEPAS) model is used to examine the effect of the lead time on forecasting, and the Fixed Lead time Compensated EEPAS (FLCEEPAS) model compensates for incompleteness of precursory earthquake contributions. FLEEPAS reveals a space-time trade-off of precursory seismicity that requires further investigation. Both models improve forecasting performance at short lead times, although the improvement is achieved in different ways.     

梁桥在地震力冲击作用下简化的安全评估方法(英文)

提出了梁桥受桥板地震力冲击作用下一种评估抗震安全系数的简化能量法。将桥（包括内桥墩）与桥台（包括其基础）分别作为一个单自由度质量系统，基于冲击时两个质量系统的能量交换，可以得到岸墩桥台的基底剪力，然后与桥台的抗力（作用于桥台的侧向土压力基底摩擦力之和）相对比，可以得到桥台受桥板地震力冲击下的抗剪安全系数。该方法简单方便，并与有限元非线性动力分析结果相吻合。     

引入惯性力影响的海底埋设管线的抗震设计方法

在现有海底管线抗震规范的基础上，根据海底铺设环境的实际情况，在考虑管线惯性力影响的情况下，提出了管土动力响应的新的力学模型，侧重分析引入惯性力与土壤滑移的影响，结合实际工程参数，对考虑惯性力后的动力学方程进行了仿真计算，比较了引入和不引入惯性力两种抗震设计方法的结果，这对海底管线的抗震设计有一定的参考和实际应用价值。     

Statistical and Criticality Analysis of the Lower Ionosphere Prior to the 30 October 2020 Samos (Greece) Earthquake (M6.9), Based on VLF Electromagnetic Propagation Data as Recorded by a New VLF/LF Receiver Installed in Athens (Greece)

In this work we present the statistical and criticality analysis of the very low frequency (VLF) sub-ionospheric propagation data recorded by a VLF/LF radio receiver which has recently been established at the University of West Attica in Athens (Greece). We investigate a very recent, strong (M6.9), and shallow earthquake (EQ) that occurred on 30 October 2020, very close to the northern coast of the island of Samos (Greece). We focus on the reception data from two VLF transmitters, located in Turkey and Israel, on the basis that the EQ’s epicenter was located within or very close to the 5th Fresnel zone, respectively, of the corresponding sub-ionospheric propagation path. Firstly, we employed in our study the conventional analyses known as the nighttime fluctuation method (NFM) and the terminator time method (TTM), aiming to reveal any statistical anomalies prior to the EQ’s occurrence. These analyses revealed statistical anomalies in the studied sub-ionospheric propagation paths within ~2 weeks and a few days before the EQ’s occurrence. Secondly, we performed criticality analysis using two well-established complex systems’ time series analysis methods—the natural time (NT) analysis method, and the method of critical fluctuations (MCF). The NT analysis method was applied to the VLF propagation quantities of the NFM, revealing criticality indications over a period of ~2 weeks prior to the Samos EQ, whereas MCF was applied to the raw receiver amplitude data, uncovering the time excerpts of the analyzed time series that present criticality which were closest before the Samos EQ. Interestingly, power-law indications were also found shortly after the EQ’s occurrence. However, it is shown that these do not correspond to criticality related to EQ preparation processes. Finally, it is noted that no other complex space-sourced or geophysical phenomenon that could disturb the lower ionosphere did occur during the studied time period or close after, corroborating the view that our results prior to the Samos EQ are likely related to this mainshock.     

抗震结构弹塑性变形能力可靠度时域随机算法

采用杆系-层模型，将计算结构静力可靠度的改进的JC法、常规有限元法及时程分析法相结合，建立了抗震结构弹塑性变形能力可靠度时域随机算法。本文方法可充分考虑结构参数及地震作用的随机性以及地震作用与静载的共同影响；可对结构侧向变形能力作地震全过程弹塑性时变可靠度分析。采用本文方法及MC模拟算法分析了一榀三层铪框架侧向变形能力弹塑性时变可靠度，结果表明了本文方法的合理性与有效性。     

水库诱震机制新理论的探索──断层带弱化与岩体软化效应诱震理论

针对走滑断层诱发的水库地震，建立了尖点突变模型，提出了发震的充要力学条件判据及地震释放能量的简单表达式。以突变理论分析为依据，建立了水库诱震机制的新假说，简称为断层带弱化与岩体软化效应诱震理论，较合理地解释了水库地震与岩性、构造、水位的关系及水库地震序列ｂ值的特征。本文的讨论从整体上深化了对水库诱震机制的认识。