Estimation in the continuous time mover‐stayer model with an application to bond ratings migration

The usual tool for modelling bond ratings migration is a discrete, time‐homogeneous Markov chain. Such model assumes that all bonds are homogeneous with respect to their movement behaviour among rating categories and that the movement behaviour does not change over time. However, among recognized sources of heterogeneity in ratings migration is age of a bond (time elapsed since issuance). It has been observed that young bonds have a lower propensity to change ratings, and thus to default, than more seasoned bonds. The aim of this paper is to introduce a continuous, time‐non‐homogeneous model for bond ratings migration, which also incorporates a simple form of population heterogeneity. The specific form of heterogeneity postulated by the proposed model appears to be suitable for modelling the effect of age of a bond on its propensity to change ratings. This model, called a mover–stayer model, is an extension of a Markov chain. This paper derives the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of a continuous time mover–stayer model based on a sample of independent continuously monitored histories of the process, and develops the likelihood ratio statistic for discriminating between the Markov chain and the mover–stayer model. The methods are illustrated using a sample of rating histories of young corporate issuers. For these issuers the default probabilities predicted by the Markov chain and mover–stayer models are different. In particular for 1–4 years old bonds the mover–stayer model estimates substantially lower default probabilities from rating C than a Markov chain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heteroclinic orbits between rotating waves of semilinear parabolic equations on the circle

We investigate heteroclinic orbits between equilibria and rotating waves for scalar semilinear parabolic reaction-advection-diffusion equations with periodic boundary conditions. Using zero number properties of the solutions and the phase shift equivariance of the equation, we establish a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a heteroclinic connection between any pair of hyperbolic equilibria or rotating waves.     

Long Abelian ideals

We study Abelian ideals of a Borel subalgebra consisting of long roots. It is shown that methods of Cellini and Papi can be extended to this situation. A uniform expression for the number of long Abelian ideals is given. We also show that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the long Abelian ideals and B-stable commutative subalgebras in the little adjoint representation of the Langlands dual Lie algebra.     

Rank estimation in reduced-rank regression

Reduced rank regression assumes that the coefficient matrix in a multivariate regression model is not of full rank. The unknown rank is traditionally estimated under the assumption of normal responses. We derive an asymptotic test for the rank that only requires the response vector have finite second moments. The test is extended to the nonconstant covariance case. Linear combinations of the components of the predictor vector that are estimated to be significant for modelling the responses are obtained.     

Sound velocity in alumino-silicate liquids determined up to 2550 K from Brillouin spectroscopy: glass transition and crossover temperatures

Hypersonic longitudinal sound velocities in five silicate and alumino-silicate liquids have been measured between 293 and 2550 K by Brillouin spectroscopy. Together with previous observations for four other glasses and liquids of the system SiO₂-Al₂O₃-CaO-MgO, these results are used to discuss changes in hypersonic velocities in three adjacent temperature domains, i.e., below, in, and above the glass transformation range. The temperature dependence of Brillouin velocities is consistent with the observed variations with temperature of viscosity, density, and mean heat capacity for the same three temperature domains. These variations of physical properties of alumino-silicate liquids are qualitatively in agreement with the Inherent Structure Theory for liquids.     

Model spectral function and superconductivity in BaxK1−xBiO3 (x=0.5-0.7)

The Eliashberg spectral density function is constructed for the superconducting compound Ba_xK_1−xBiO₃ with x=0.5, 0.6, 0.7. The functions, besides yielding some prominent structures, show widely spreading spectra that inhibit lattice instability by yielding not too large values of λ(<1.32). The resulting spectral functions show similar shape as other results, where available, and also successfully reproduce the observed critical temperature, isotope exponent, gap ratio and several other parameters.     

Rank one perturbations at infinite coupling in Pontryagin spaces

In this paper we relate the operators in the operator representations of a generalized Nevanlinna function N(z) and of the function −N(z)⁻¹ under the assumption that z=∞ is the only (generalized) pole of nonpositive type. The results are applied to the Q-function for S and H and the Q-function for S and H^∞, where H is a self-adjoint operator in a Pontryagin space with a cyclic element w, H^∞ is the self-adjoint relation obtained from H and w via a rank one perturbation at infinite coupling, and S is the symmetric operator given by S=H∩H^∞.     

More on Kleinewillinghöfer Types of Flat Laguerre Planes

Polster and Steinke [Result. Math., 46 (2004), 103–122] determined the possible Kleinewillingh?fer types of flat Laguerre planes. These types reflect transitivity properties of groups of certain central automorphisms. We exclude three more types from the list given there with respect to Laguerre homotheties. This yields a complete determination of all possible single types with respect to Laguerre homotheties that can occur in flat Laguerre planes. Building on results by M?urer and Hartmann to characterize ovoidal or miquelian Laguerre planes we further characterize certain flat Laguerre planes in terms of their Kleinewillingh?fer types. Received: January 16, 2007. Revised: July 26, 2007.