弹性需求下城市公交网络服务的优化

对具有弹性需求的城市公交网络系统进行了票价结构与发车频率组合的优化。考虑到公交定价和发车频率会影响乘客需求以及乘客对路径的选择行为,将这一问题描述为一个双层规划问题,上层是寻求社会福利最大的优化问题;下层考虑了乘客的出行选择行为,为弹性需求下乘客在城市公交网络上流量分布的随机用户平衡分配模型。鉴于双层规划问题的非凸性,运用模拟退火算法对模型进行求解,并给出一个仿真算例说明提出的模型和算法的合理性。     

部分权重信息下对方案有互补偏好的多属性决策法

研究了只有部分权重信息且对方案的偏好信息以模糊互补判断矩阵形式给出的多属性决策问题.首先,基于模糊互补判断矩阵的主观偏好信息,利用转换函数将客观决策信息一致化,建立一个目标规划模型,通过求解该模型得到属性权重,从而利用加性加权法获得各方案的综合属性值,并以此对方案进行排序或择优.提出了一种基于目标规划的多属性决策方法.该方法具有操作简便和易于上机实现的特点.最后,通过实例说明模型及方法的可行性和有效性.     

Mining axiomatic fuzzy set association rules for classification problems

In this paper, we propose a novel method to mine association rules for classification problems namely AFSRC (AFS association rules for classification) realized in the framework of the axiomatic fuzzy set (AFS) theory. This model provides a simple and efficient rule generation mechanism. It can also retain meaningful rules for imbalanced classes by fuzzifying the concept of the class support of a rule. In addition, AFSRC can handle different data types occurring simultaneously. Furthermore, the new model can produce membership functions automatically by processing available data. An extensive suite of experiments are reported which offer a comprehensive comparison of the performance of the method with the performance of some other methods available in the literature. The experimental result shows that AFSRC outperforms most of other methods when being quantified in terms of accuracy and interpretability. AFSRC forms a classifier with high accuracy and more interpretable rule base of smaller size while retaining a sound balance between these two characteristics.     

Cost/risk balanced management of scarce resources using stochastic programming

We consider the situation when a scarce renewable resource should be periodically distributed between different users by a Resource Management Authority (RMA). The replenishment of this resource as well as users demand is subject to considerable uncertainty. We develop cost optimization and risk management models that can assist the RMA in its decision about striking the balance between the level of target delivery to the users and the level of risk that this delivery will not be met. These models are based on utilization and further development of the general methodology of stochastic programming for scenario optimization, taking into account appropriate risk management approaches. By a scenario optimization model we obtain a target barycentric value with respect to selected decision variables. A successive reoptimization of deterministic model for the worst case scenarios allows the reduction of the risk of negative consequences derived from unmet resources demand. Our reference case study is the distribution of scarce water resources. We show results of some numerical experiments in real physical systems.     

Real options valuation of forest plantation investments in Brazil

In this paper, we consider investments in eucalyptus plantations in Brazil. For such projects, we discuss real options valuation in the place conventional methods such as IRR or NPV, possibly with CAPM. Traditionally, real options valuation assumes complete markets and neglects market imperfections. Yet, market frictions, such as transaction costs, interest rate spreads, and restricted short positions, can play an important role. We extend real options valuation to allow incomplete and imperfect markets. The value is obtained as a competitive price, given markets of competing investment opportunities, such as real and financial assets. Under perfect and complete markets, such valuation method is consistent with conventional real options theory. Stochastic programming and standard software is used for valuation of eucalyptus plantations. We estimate the underlying interdependent diffusion processes of stock market, interest rates, exchange rates and pulpwood price, and derive novel expressions of stochastic integrals to be employed in scenario generation for discrete time stochastic programming.     

Effects of imprecise weighting in hierarchical preference programming

Preference programming is a general term for multi-criteria decision analytical approaches allowing incomplete preference information. In the PAIRS method, interval judgments are assigned to weight ratios between attributes to model imprecision in multi-attribute value trees. This paper studies the effects of a hierarchical model structure on the overall imprecision, as the form of the hierarchy also affects the form of imprecision that can be assigned to the model. The aim is to find out good procedural practices for reducing overall imprecision descending inherently from the model structure. The study provides simulation results about the ability of various weighting schemes to identify dominated alternatives, which are discussed with respect to other issues related to the weighting process. According to the results, a hierarchical model is structurally somewhat more unable to identify dominances than a corresponding nonhierarchical model, but its cognitive advantages often cancel out this. The results also suggest paying reasonable attention to the precision of the lower level judgments and to identifying possible correlations between the criteria.     

Relevance and truthfulness in information correction and fusion

A general approach to information correction and fusion for belief functions is proposed, where not only may the information items be irrelevant, but sources may lie as well. We introduce a new correction scheme, which takes into account uncertain metaknowledge on the source’s relevance and truthfulness and that generalizes Shafer’s discounting operation. We then show how to reinterpret all connectives of Boolean logic in terms of source behavior assumptions with respect to relevance and truthfulness. We are led to generalize the unnormalized Dempster’s rule to all Boolean connectives, while taking into account the uncertainties pertaining to assumptions concerning the behavior of sources. Eventually, we further extend this approach to an even more general setting, where source behavior assumptions do not have to be restricted to relevance and truthfulness. We also establish the commutativity property between correction and fusion processes, when the behaviors of the sources are independent.     

A dynamic system model for solving convex nonlinear optimization problems

This paper proposes a feedback neural network model for solving convex nonlinear programming (CNLP) problems. Under the condition that the objective function is convex and all constraint functions are strictly convex or that the objective function is strictly convex and the constraint function is convex, the proposed neural network is proved to be stable in the sense of Lyapunov and globally convergent to an exact optimal solution of the original problem. The validity and transient behavior of the neural network are demonstrated by using some examples.     

Handling equality constraints in evolutionary optimization

Over the last few decades several methods have been proposed for handling functional constraints while solving optimization problems using evolutionary algorithms (EAs). However, the presence of equality constraints makes the feasible space very small compared to the entire search space. As a consequence, the handling of equality constraints has long been a difficult issue for evolutionary optimization methods. This paper presents a Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm (HEA) for solving optimization problems with both equality and inequality constraints. In HEA, we propose a new local search technique with special emphasis on equality constraints. The basic concept of the new technique is to reach a point on the equality constraint from the current position of an individual solution, and then explore on the constraint landscape. We believe this new concept will influence the future research direction for constrained optimization using population based algorithms. The proposed algorithm is tested on a set of standard benchmark problems. The results show that the proposed technique works very well on those benchmark problems.     

Robust ranking and portfolio optimization

The portfolio optimization problem has attracted researchers from many disciplines to resolve the issue of poor out-of-sample performance due to estimation errors in the expected returns. A practical method for portfolio construction is to use assets’ ordering information, expressed in the form of preferences over the stocks, instead of the exact expected returns. Due to the fact that the ranking itself is often described with uncertainty, we introduce a generic robust ranking model and apply it to portfolio optimization. In this problem, there are n objects whose ranking is in a discrete uncertainty set. We want to find a weight vector that maximizes some generic objective function for the worst realization of the ranking. This robust ranking problem is a mixed integer minimax problem and is very difficult to solve in general. To solve this robust ranking problem, we apply the constraint generation method, where constraints are efficiently generated by solving a network flow problem. For empirical tests, we use post-earnings-announcement drifts to obtain ranking uncertainty sets for the stocks in the DJIA index. We demonstrate that our robust portfolios produce smaller risk compared to their non-robust counterparts.