A class of random field memory models for mortality forecasting

This article proposes a parsimonious alternative approach for modeling the stochastic dynamics of mortality rates. Instead of the commonly used factor-based decomposition framework, we consider modeling mortality improvements using a random field specification with a given causal structure. Such a class of models introduces dependencies among adjacent cohorts aiming at capturing, among others, the cohort effects and cross generations correlations. It also describes the conditional heteroskedasticity of mortality. The proposed model is a generalization of the now widely used AR-ARCH models for random processes. For such a class of models, we propose an estimation procedure for the parameters. Formally, we use the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) and show its statistical consistency and the asymptotic normality of the estimated parameters. The framework being general, we investigate and illustrate a simple variant, called the three-level memory model, in order to fully understand and assess the effectiveness of the approach for modeling mortality dynamics.     

Achieving Enhanced Photochromic Properties of Diarylethene through Host-Guest Interaction in Aqueous Solution

Diarylethene (DTE) has been widely used in fluorescence probes, molecular logic gates, optical data-storage devices owing to the excellent photochromic property, while constructing high-performance photochromic DTE in aqueous media remains a big challenge. Herein we present several host-guest systems formed between cucurbit[n]uril (CB[n], n=7, 8, 10) and two water-soluble DTE derivatives 1 and 2 . It was found that host-guest interactions not only affect the photophysical properties of photochromic guests, but also make great differences on the photoreaction process. Different host-guest binding behaviors also lead to different effects on the photochromic properties of guests. In the presence of CB[n], both 1 and 2 showed enhanced emission and higher fluorescence quenching ratio at photostationary state. Besides, CB[10] ⋅1 exhibited faster response rate in cyclization reaction and better photofatigue resistance than free 1 in aqueous solution, while the supramolecular assembly of (CB[8])_n ⋅ ( 2 )_n showed slower response rate in both directions of the reversible photoreaction. Besides, the photofatigue resistance of 2 can be greatly improved through binding with CB[7]. Our results suggest that host-guest interactions could be an efficient way to improve photochromic properties of DTE in aqueous solution.     

Approximation by an iterative method of a low‐Mach model with temperature dependent viscosity

In this work, we prove the existence and the uniqueness of the strong solution of a low‐Mach model, for which the dynamic viscosity of the fluid is a given function of its temperature. The method is based on the convergence study of a sequence towards the solution, for which the rates are also given. The originality of the approach is to consider the system in terms of the temperature and the velocity, leading to a nonlinear temperature equation and the development of some specific tools and results.     

An investigation of Forex market efficiency based on detrended fluctuation analysis: A case study for Iran

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that asset prices fully reflect all available information. As a result, speculators cannot predict the future behavior of asset prices and earn excess profits at least after adjusting for risk. Although initial tests of the EMH were performed on stock market data, the EMH was soon applied to other markets including foreign exchange (FX). This study uses the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) technique to test 01:12:2005–18:04:2010 Iranian Rial/US Dollar exchange rate time series data to see if it can be explained by the weak form of the EMH. Moreover, to determine changes in the degree of inefficiency over time, the whole period has been divided into four subperiods. The study shows that the Iranian Forex market (the Rial/Dollar case) is weak-form inefficient over the whole period and in each of the subperiods. However, the degree of inefficiency is not constant over time. The findings suggest that profitable risk-adjusted trades could be made using past data.     

High-speed deposition of RE123 film with large current capacity by hot-wall type PLD system

We have studied a hot-wall heating system to produce GdBa₂Cu₃O_y (GdBCO) films with large critical currents (I_c) at a high production rate by a pulsed-laser-deposition (PLD) method. GdBCO films fabricated at a production rate of 30 m/h under the optimized conditions, especially a distance of 95 mm between the target and the substrate (T–S), exhibited high critical current densities (J_c) of about 3 MA/cm² and I_c over 300 A at a thickness of 1–2 μm. Furthermore, long GdBCO tapes prepared by repeated depositions at each tape-passing speed of 80 m/h showed uniform I_c distribution along the longitudinal direction, because the hot-wall system enabled to stabilize temperature within a few degrees at 800 °C. A 170 m long tape with I_c over 600 A was successfully fabricated at a production rate of 16 m/h using a laser power of 360 W.     

Preparation and Characterization of Quaternized Chitosan Under Microwave Irradiation

For the first time, N-(2-hydroxyl) propyl-3-trimethyl ammonium chitosan chloride (HTCC) was prepared through a fast, easy and efficient method with the assistance of microwave irradiation, and the quaternized chitosan was also degraded via the microwave irradiation. A comparative study was performed by using the conventional heating method to prepare HTCC. The structure and property of the quaternized chitosan obtained by these two methods were characterized by GPC, XRD, FTIR, NMR, TG and elemental analysis. It was shown that quaternized chitosan was successfully prepared within 50 min via microwave irradiation method, while a much longer time of 6–7 h was needed with the conventional heating method. The substitutions both occurred on the C2 position of chitosan with the two different methods, and their HTCC products had weight average similar molecular weight (Mw), structure and thermal stability. The HTCC prepared by the microwave irradiation method had a little lower degree of substitution (DS) than those prepared via conventional heating with the same mole ratio (6:1) of the intermediate to chitosan. The degradation study showed that the Mw of HTCC decreased rapidly from 4.6 × 10⁵ to 1.1 × 10⁵ in 1 h under microwave irradiation, while it only decreased from 4.6 × 10⁵ to 2.1 × 10⁵in 1 h through conventional heating degradation. These results revealed that microwave irradiation is a more efficient and environment-friendly way to obtain the water-soluble chitosan derivatives and their degraded products.     

Multicomponent Domino [4+1+1] Carbocyclization Providing an Efficient and Regioselective Strategy to Fluoren-9-ones

Concise and efficient three‐component domino [4+1+1] carbocyclization to highly substituted fluoren‐9‐one derivatives promoted by K₂CO₃ has been developed under microwave irradiation conditions. The direct bis‐cyanation and aryl amination residing in fluoren‐9‐one framework were achieved in a one‐pot operation. The reaction proceeds at fast rates and can be finished within 30 min, which makes workup convenient to give good to excellent chemical yields.     

Solvent-Free C-Benzoylation and N-Benzoylation Reactions Using Microwave Heating

An ecofriendly and efficient microwave-irradiated solvent-free benzoylation method was developed. The procedure for C-benzoylation used 50 mol% AlCl₃ as a Lewis acid catalyst at 130 °C and was completed in 10 min. The isolated yield was between 71% and 100%. N-benzoylation was conducted in a catalyst-free environment at 130 °C in 10 min. The isolated yield was between 80% and 100%.