A general Hsu-Robbins-Erdős Type estimate of tail probabilities of sums of independent identically distributed random variables

Periodica Mathematica Hungarica - Let X 1,X 2,... be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, and put % MATHTYPE!MTEF!2!1!+-%...     

Stability of Markovian structure observed in high frequency foreign exchange data

Contrary to the common sense in economics and financial engineering, price fluctuations at very fine level of motion exhibit various evidences against the efficient market hypothesis. We attempt to investigate this issue by studying extensive amount of foreign currency exchange data for over five years at the finest level of resolution. We specifically focus on the proposed stability in binomial conditional probabilities originally found in much smaller examples of financial time series. In order to handle very large data, we have written an efficient program in C that automatically generates those conditional probabilities. It is found that the stability is maintained for extremely large time duration that covers almost the entire period. Based on the length of conditions for which the conditional probabilities are distinguishable each other, we identify the length of memory being less than 3 movements.     

Optimal Operations Management and Network Planning of a District Heating System with a Combined Heat and Power Plant

District heating plants are becoming more common in European cities. These systems make it possible to furnish users with warm water while locating the production plants in the outskirts having the double benefit of lowering the impact of pollution on the center of the city and achieving better conversion performances. In order to amortize the costs throughout the year, the system often includes a combined heat and power (CHP) plant, to exploit the energy during the summer as well, when the demand for warm water decreases. A linear programming model for the optimal resource management of such a plant is presented and some results for a real case are reported. A distribution network design problem is also addressed and solved by means of mixed integer linear programming.     

人工扰动电离层仿真系统的设计与实现

设计并开发了一种人工扰动电离层仿真系统．建立了数值模型，规划出系统总体构造，在实现过程中引入VC、VF混合编程的概念，以达到两种语言优势互补的目的．文中详细论述了VC、VF混合编程对于数据的处理，生成Fortran的动态链接库，以及在VC中调用生成库的技术．通过仿真模拟，得出了电离层加热过程中电子密度、电子温度等随时间演化的规律，及发射电波频率、功率对加热效果的影响．试用证明，该系统有效地模拟了电离层人工扰动的状态，为在我国实施加热工程提供了可靠的科学依据．     

阿尔芬波加热研究的进展

本文概述了阿尔芬波加热的理论和实验情况。讨论了阿尔芬波加热的基本物理问题,并介绍了某些重要的实验结果。对在大托卡马克上采用阿尔芬波加热的可能性进行了全面论述。     

Estimating household purchase rates for consumer nondurable goods

Understanding the purchase rates of households for frequently purchased packaged goods is an important element in developing effective marketing strategies. Previous researchers have attempted to estimate these rates by assuming that the time between purchases is a random variable that follows some common parametric probability distribution such as the exponential or Weibull distribution. Recent research has shown that for many frequently purchased packaged goods, the interpurchase times cannot be adequately described by these commonly used probability distributions. In this study we demonstrate how household purchase rates can be estimated in a robust manner using a generalized semiparametric approach that obviates the need for specifying a parametric form for the distribution of interpurchase times. The motivation being that often there is no theory of household purchase behaviour that specifies a priori the probability distribution underlying the interpurchase times. Our empirical results indicate that, for the data analysed, the household purchase rates exhibit a regular pattern that cannot be recovered by probability distributions often used in previous research. Further, marketing actions taken by sellers do indeed influence household purchase behaviour.     

热源塔热泵系统夏季工况优化运行实验研究

由于热源塔在冬夏季工况下的换热能力存在较大差异,按冬季工况设计的热源塔热泵系统,在夏季工况下运行时存在换热能力过剩的问题,影响系统性能。为解决上述问题,本文构建了热源塔热泵系统,实验研究了其冬夏季工况的性能差异。在此基础上,对夏季工况下的优化运行进行了实验研究,结果表明,通过调节空气和溶液流量,将热源塔的逼近度和冷幅分别控制在3.5℃和4.3℃,可使得系统性能系数由3.6提升至3.9,并对其节能机理进行了分析。     

HCN laser scattering on the JIPP T-IIU tokamak

A 4-channel HCN laser scattering system has been developed and applied to the JIPP T-IIU tokamak. Main aim of this system is to study microturbulence excited in the plasma, especially in the high power ICRF heating experiment. The observed density fluctuations are in a frequency range of the electron diamagnetic drift wave and have broad frequency spectra. The main part of the wavenumber is found to satisfy the condition of . In the heating experiments, deterioration of the energy confinement time is observed, and the density fluctuation level increases with the increase of the heating power.     

Study of the conditions for the effective energy transfer in a process of acceleration and collision of the thin metal disks with the massive target

Efficiency studies of laser driven thin metal disks acceleration using the first harmonic (λ₁=1.315 μm) of the Prague Asterix Laser System (PALS) and subsequent craters creation produced by collisions of these disks with massive targets are presented. Several different disks made of aluminium and copper foils with diameters of 300 μm and 600 μm and thicknesses of 11 μm (Al) and 3.6 μ m (Cu) were employed. Disks were placed at the distance of either 100 μ m or 300 μm in front of aluminium massive targets. The following irradiation conditions were used: the laser beam energy of 120 J, the focal spot diameter of 200 μm, and the pulse duration of 0.4 ns (FWHM). A three-frame interferometric system was employed to determine electron density distributions in plasma corona. Shape and volume of craters were obtained by crater replica technology and microscopy measurements. The aim of these investigations was to analyse conditions leading to the most effective energy transfer in the process of collision of the accelerated disks with solid targets. The overall efficiency of these processes was characterized by the volume of craters produced in such targets.     

电热泵用于蔬菜温室供热的经济性分析

现代化蔬菜温室是我国都市农业发展中的一个重要组成部分，目前这类温室的冬季加热均以燃煤方式为主．伴随着越加严重的城市环境污染，温室供热系统也面临着改造问题，需要引入清洁供热方式，热泵供热是其中的一种．本文以上海地区现代化蔬菜温室为研究对象，分析了蔬菜温室中使用电热泵供热的运行成本，并与燃煤供热方式进行了对比．就热泵供热系统在温室中的应用前景及可行性、经济性进行了分析，为热泵在温室供热系统中的应用提供了可参考依据．