模糊AHP在电网企业员工岗前培训评估中的应用

电网企业技术密集、人员众多、架构庞大,员工岗前培训与企业健康持续发展密不可分.培训工作中最突出的问题在于对培训效果缺乏合理的评估,从而无法了解企业投资的效果,以及培训对组织的贡献.以柯氏培训四级评估模型为基础,采用模糊AHP规范化整个评估过程.最后以电力企业进行的培训项目为例验证分析,证明所提算法的有效性.     

稳健残差控制图的构建及在金融时序中的应用

对于呈现自相关和波动族聚性并存的受控过程,通常采用残差控制图对其进行监控。但异常点的存在会对自相关或波动族聚性模型的拟合产生重要影响,使得基于该模型的残差并非独立同分布导致常规残差控制图监控失效。为解决这类问题,本文提出稳健残差控制图。即建立稳健的ARMA模型解决自相关问题从而得到无自相关的残差序列,用稳健的GARCH模型来构建控制图的上下限。模拟和实证研究表明,本文提出的稳健残差控制图具有很好的抗异常点能力并能更好的对金融时间序列的异常现象进行监控。     

Option Pricing and Hedging under a Markov Switching Lévy Process Model

In this paper,we consider a Markov switching Lévy process model in which the underlying risky assets are driven by the stochastic exponential of Markov switching Lévy process and then apply the model to option pricing and hedging.In this model,the market interest rate,the volatility of the underlying risky assets and the N-state compensator,depend on unobservable states of the economy which are modeled by a continuous-time Hidden Markov process.We use the MEMM(minimal entropy martingale measure) as the equivalent martingale measure.The option price using this model is obtained by the Fourier transform method.We obtain a closed-form solution for the hedge ratio by applying the local risk minimizing hedging.     

Semiparametric Bayesian inference for mean-covariance regression models

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian semiparametric mean-covariance regression model with known covariance structures. A mixture model is used to describe the potential non-normal distribution of the regression errors. Moreover, an empirical likelihood adjusted mixture of Dirichlet process model is constructed to produce distributions with given mean and variance constraints. We illustrate through simulation studies that the proposed method provides better estimations in some non-normal cases. We also demonstrate the implementation of our method by analyzing the data set from a sleep deprivation study.     

Optimization of multiwalled carbon nanotubes reinforced hollow‐fiber solid–liquid‐phase microextraction for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in environmental water samples using experimental design

A novel design of hollow‐fiber liquid‐phase microextraction containing multiwalled carbon nanotubes as a solid sorbent, which is immobilized in the pore and lumen of hollow fiber by the sol–gel technique, was developed for the pre‐concentration and determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in environmental water samples. The proposed method utilized both solid‐ and liquid‐phase microextraction media. Parameters that affect the extraction of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were optimized in two successive steps as follows. Firstly, a methodology based on a quarter factorial design was used to choose the significant variables. Then, these significant factors were optimized utilizing central composite design. Under the optimized condition (extraction time = 25 min, amount of multiwalled carbon nanotubes = 78 mg, sample volume = 8 mL, and desorption time = 5 min), the calibration curves showed high linearity (R ² = 0.99) in the range of 0.01–500 ng/mL and the limits of detection were in the range of 0.007–1.47 ng/mL. The obtained extraction recoveries for 10 ng/mL of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons standard solution were in the range of 85–92%. Replicating the experiment under these conditions five times gave relative standard deviations lower than 6%. Finally, the method was successfully applied for pre‐concentration and determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in environmental water samples.     

Understanding Molecular Dynamics with Stochastic Processes via Real or Virtual Dynamics

Molecular dynamics with the stochastic process provides a convenient way to compute structural and thermodynamic properties of chemical, biological, and materials systems. It is demonstrated that the virtual dynamics case that we proposed for the Langevin equation[J. Chem. Phys. 147 , 184104 (2017)] in principle exists in other types of stochastic thermostats as well. The recommended "middle" scheme[J. Chem. Phys. 147 , 034109 (2017)] of the Andersen thermostat is investigated as an example. As shown by both analytic and numerical results, while the real and virtual dynamics cases approach the same plateau of the characteristic correlation time in the high collision frequency limit, the accuracy and efficiency of sampling are relatively insensitive to the value of the collision frequency in a broad range. After we compare the behaviors of the Andersen thermostat to those of Langevin dynamics, a heuristic schematic representation is proposed for understanding efficient stochastic thermostatting processes with molecular dynamics.     

Activation of Cellulose Assisted by CO2 for the Preparation of a Superhydrophobic Nanocoating

There is increasing demand for superhydrophobic materials, which can be used for separating oil and water efficiently. To avoid secondary pollution, it is desirable to prepare such materials with green technology. Here, we present an environmentally benign method for fabricating superhydrophobic materials by using organic base based solvents in which cellulose can be dissolved and activated. The dissolved cellulose could be chemically modified with a silanization reagent, and the solvent could be recycled after CO₂ was removed. The obtained cellulose nanocoating exhibited excellent hydrophobic effects. By spraying it on filter paper (water contact angle (WCA)=165°) for oil and water separation, the separation efficiency of more than 95 % was achieved; ultrasonication of an ordinary sponge in its dispersion (WCA=163°), meant it could be used as an oil absorber. It can also absorb a certain amount of bisphenol A (BPA), with the concentration decreasing by 66 % from the original concentration (0.1 mm ). Besides the high separation efficiency, it is resistant to a wide range of pH solutions, which means that it could be used in harsh environments. More importantly, the process is cost‐effective, the solvent can be recycled, and the whole process is green. Thus, the activation method provides a green route for the preparation of other cellulose‐based materials.     

Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measure with a heavy tailed loss

Recently Haezendonck–Goovaerts (H–G) risk measure has received much attention in (re)insurance and portfolio management. Some nonparametric inferences have been proposed in the literature. When the loss variable does not have enough moments, which depends on the involved Young function, the nonparametric estimator in Ahn and Shyamalkumar (2014) has a nonnormal limit, which challenges interval estimation. Motivated by the fact that many loss variables in insurance and finance could have a heavier tail such as an infinite variance, this paper proposes a new estimator which estimates the tail by extreme value theory and the middle part nonparametrically. It turns out that the proposed new estimator always has a normal limit regardless of the tail heaviness of the loss variable. Hence an interval with asymptotically correct confidence level can be obtained easily either by the normal approximation method via estimating the asymptotic variance or by a bootstrap method. A simulation study and real data analysis confirm the effectiveness of the proposed new inference procedure for estimating the H–G risk measure.     

Fuzzy logic modifications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a measurement methodology based on pair-wise comparisons that relies on judgment to derive priority scales. During its implementation, one constructs hierarchies, then makes judgments or performs measurements on pairs of elements with respect to a criterion to derive preference scales, which are then synthesized throughout the structure to select the preferred alternative.One of the areas where the AHP finds application is in the subjective phases of risk assessment (RA), where it is used to structure and prioritize diverse risk factors, including the judgments of experts. Since fuzzy logic (FL) has been shown to be an effective tool for accommodating human experts and their communication of linguistic variables, there has been research aimed at modeling the fuzziness in the AHP (FAHP), and recently the focus of some of that modeling has been with respect to RA.The literature discusses more than one FAHP model, which raises the question as to which are the prominent models and what are their characteristics. In response to this question, we examine three of the most influential FAHP models. The article proceeds as follows. It begins with a brief overview of the AHP and its limitations when confronted with a fuzzy environment. This is followed by a discussion of FL modifications of the AHP. A RA-based likelihood score example is used throughout. The article ends with a commentary on the findings.     

On a single discrete scale for preventive maintenance with two shock processes affecting a complex system

A new approach to optimal maintenance of systems (networks) is suggested. It is applied to systems subject to two external independent shock processes. A system ‘consists’ of two parts, and each shock process affects only its own part. A new notion of bivariate signature is suggested and used for obtaining survival characteristics of a system and further optimization of the preventive maintenance actions. The preventive maintenance optimization is considered in the univariate discrete scale that counts the overall numbers of shocks of both types. An example of a transportation network is considered. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.