On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

A model study for the steady state error of numerical approximations of inviscid flow equations on Cartesian grid

The widely used locally adaptive Cartesian grid methods involve a series of abruptly refined interfaces. In this paper we consider the influence of the refined interfaces on the steady state errors for second‐order three‐point difference approximations of flow equations. Since the various characteristic components of the Euler equations should behave similarly on such grids with regard to refinement‐induced errors, it is sufficient enough to conduct the analysis on a scalar model problem. The error we consider is a global error, different to local truncation error, and reflects the interaction between multiple interfaces. The steady state error will be compared to the errors on smooth refinement grids and on uniform grids. The conclusion seems to support the numerical findings of Yamaleev and Carpenter (J. Comput. Phys. 2002; 181: 280–316) that refinement does not necessarily reduce the numerical error. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tribute to Endre Csáki and Pál Révész

Summary This article provides a glimpse of some of the highlights of the joint work of Endre Csáki and Pál Révész since 1979. The topics of this short exploration of the rich stochastic milieu of this inspiring collaboration revolve around Brownian motion, random walks and their long excursions, local times and additive functionals, iterated processes, almost sure local and global central limit theorems, integral functionals of geometric stochastic processes, favourite sites--favourite values and jump sizes for random walk and Brownian motion, random walking in a random scenery, and large void zones and occupation times for coalescing random walks.     

合作联盟资源集成计划一种新方法

合作联盟里，资源集成计划往往是联盟成员群体谈判博弈的结果。本以两人博弈为例，对联盟的资源集成计划给出一个谈判博弈模型，能够较好地模仿和反映合作联盟资源整合计划的制订过程。     

期货经纪公司保证金的一种确定方法

本文基于马尔可夫链在存储论中的应用，结合Ergodic定理，得到确定期货经纪公司保证金的Ergodic模型，即一个双目标规划问题，然后应用乘积最大化准则，将该模型转化为单目标规划问题来求解。该方法考虑期货经纪公司承担的风险和对投资者的吸引程度，为保证金的确定提供新的思路。     

Bounds to optimal burn‐in and optimal work size

Burn‐in is a widely used method to improve the quality of products or systems after they have been produced. In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the optimal burn‐in time and optimal work size maximizing the long‐run average amount of work saved per time unit in the computer applications. Assuming that the underlying lifetime distribution of the computer has an initially decreasing or/and eventually increasing failure rate function, an upper bound for the optimal burn‐in time is derived for each fixed work size and a uniform (with respect to the burn‐in time) upper bound for the optimal work size is also obtained. Furthermore, it is shown that a non‐trivial lower bound for the optimal burn‐in time can be derived if the underlying lifetime distribution has a large initial failure rate. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linear absorbing boundary conditions for surface water wave propagation

Summary The meaning of linear absorbing boundary conditions for periodic water waves in elliptical approaches is discussed. It is found that the direction of propagation of the waves must be known for reliable boundary conditions and that the energy dissipation of waves running parallel to a boundary in general cannot be modelled in the framework of a linear theory. Work presented at the Euromech Colloquium 240 on ?Dispersive waves in dissipative fluids?, Bologna, August 30–September 2, 1988.     

Thermal expansion of a rig

Summary We have estimated and measured the daily thermal expansion of an oceanographic platform. This has been found negligible as far as the calibration of a satellite altimeter is concerned.     

Letter: Differential Invariants of the Kerr Vacuum

The norms associated with the gradients of the two non-differential invariants of the Kerr vacuum are examined. Whereas both locally single out the horizons, their global behavior is more interesting. Both reflect the background angular momentum as the volume of space allowing a timelike gradient decreases with increasing angular momentum becoming zero in the degenerate and naked cases. These results extend directly to the Kerr-Newman geometry.     

The polarization property and irradiance distribution of incoherent and coherent Gaussian beam combinations

Based on the beam coherence-polarization (BCP) matrix, the polarization property of coherent and incoherent Gaussian beam combinations is studied in detail. The general expressions for the degree of polarization P of the resulting beam in case of incoherent and coherent combinations are derived. It is shown that P is dependent on the incoherent or coherent combination, propagation distance, separation, azimuth of the polarization plane and numbers of beamlets in general. The irradiance distribution of the resulting beam for the coherent cases depends on the azimuth of the polarization plane of beamlets. However, for the incoherent case it does not.