Sequential estimation in regression models using analogues of trimmed means

A sequential procedure is proposed for constructing a fixed-size confidence region for the parameters of a linear regression model. The procedure is based on certain regression analogues of trimmed means, as formulated by Welsh (1987,Ann. Statist.,15, 20–36), rather than least squares estimates. For error distributions with continuous, symmetric density and some moment higher than fourth finite, if the design points of the model are bounded, then the procedure is both asymptotically consistent and asymptotically efficient as the size of the region approaches zero.Research supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grants DMS 85-03321 and 88-02556 and by the Air Force under Grant AFOSR-87-0041.     

Functional inference in semiparametric models using the piggyback bootstrap

This paper introduces the “piggyback bootstrap.” Like the weighted bootstrap, this bootstrap procedure can be used to generate random draws that approximate the joint sampling distribution of the parametric and nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators in various semiparametric models, but the dimension of the maximization problem for each bootstrapped likelihood is smaller. This reduction results in significant computational savings in comparison to the weighted bootstrap. The procedure can be stated quite simply. First obtain a valid random draw for the parametric component of the model. Then take the draw for the nonparametric component to be the maximizer of the weighted bootstrap likelihood with the parametric component fixed at the parametric draw. We prove the procedure is valid for a class of semiparametric models that includes frailty regression models airsing in survival analysis and biased sampling models that have application to vaccine efficacy trials. Bootstrap confidence sets from the piggyback, and weighted bootstraps are compared for biased sampling data from simulated vaccine efficacy trials.     

Fixed Width Confidence Region for the Mean of a Multivariate Normal Distribution

Srivastava gave an asymptotically efficient and consistent sequential procedure to obtain a fixed-width confidence region for the mean vector of any p-dimensional random vector with finite second moments. For normally distributed random vectors, Srivastava and Bhargava showed that the specified coverage probability is attained independent of the width, the mean vector, and the covariance matrix by taking a finite number of observations over and above T prescribed by the sequential rule. However, the problem of showing that E(T−n₀) is bounded, where n₀ is the sample size required if the covariance matrix were known, has not been available. In this paper, we not only show that it is bounded but obtain sharper estimates of E(T) on the lines of Woodroofe. We also give an asymptotic expansion of the coverage probability. Similar results have recently been obtained by Nagao under the assumption that the covariance matrix Σ=∑^k_i=1 σ_iA_i and ∑^k_i=1 A_i=I, where A_i's are known matrices. We obtain the results of this paper under the sole assumption that the largest latent root of Σ is simple.     

On Sequential Fixed-Size Confidence Regions for the Mean Vector

In order to construct a fixed-size confidence region for the mean vector of an unknown distribution functionF, a new purely sequential sampling strategy is proposed first. For this new procedure, under some regularity conditions onF, the coverage probability is shown (Theorem 2.1) to be at least (1−α)−Bα²d²+o(d²) asd→0, where (1−α) is the preassigned level of confidence,Bis an appropriate functional ofF, and 2dis the preassigned diameter of the proposed spherical confidence region for the mean vector ofF. An accelerated version of the stopping rule is also provided with the analogous second-order characteristics (Theorem 3.1). In the special case of ap-dimensional normal random variable, analogous purely sequential and accelerated sequential procedures as well as a three-stage procedure are briefly introduced together with their asymptotic second-order characteristics.     

左删失右截断数据的分位数的固定宽度序贯置信区间估计

基于左截断右删失数据下的乘积限估计构造了分位数固定宽度序贯置信区间及其估计，研究了序贯置信区间估计的渐近性质。作为副产品，获得了分位数估计近邻点的Bahadur表示定理。这个表示定理是推导分位数固定宽度序贯置信区间估计渐近性质的重要基础。同时，在文中，进行了一些计算机模拟试验，证明了左截断右删失数据下分位数估计的序贯方法是效的和精确的。     

子母弹抛散盲区半径评定方法研究

研究了导弹抛散盲区半径的评定方法，所谓盲区半径Rm，指的是以虚拟落点为圆心，子弹无法打到的圆域的半径，给出了几种不同的方法去评估盲区半径；首先，对于弹着点与圆心之间距离（即半径）的分布函数F（d），将Rm看作是分布函数F(d）的一个p分位点εp ，就可以利用矩法和极大似然法得到Rm(即εp）的点估计；此外，将盲区半径指标Rm看成是一个随机变量，每次弹着点的最小半径作为样本值，通过直观的方法得到Rm的3种点估计，对于这些估计，给出它们的分布或近似分布，用经典方法可得到盲区半径的置信上限，最后给出了一个例子。     

识别准则及其应用

针对模糊综合评判中使用最大属性准则可能得到不合理的结论 ,提出置信度准则作为新的识别准则 ,实例说明其更加合理 .并引入评分准则作为推广 .     

纵向数据下部分非线性模型的广义经验似然推断

本文研究了纵向数据下部分非线性模型中未知参数的置信域的构造.利用经验似然方法,构造了非线性函数中未知参数的广义对数经验似然比统计量,证明了其渐近于卡方分布.同时,得到了未知参数的最大经验似然估计,并证明了其渐近正态性.     

Applicability domain: towards a more formal definition$

Abstract

In recent years the applicability domain (AD) of a prediction system has become an important concern in (Q)SAR modelling, especially in the context of human safety assessment. Today AD is an active research topic, and many methods have been designed to estimate the adequacy of a model and the confidence in its outcome for a given prediction task. Unfortunately, the wide spectrum of techniques developed for this purpose is based on various definitions of the concept of AD, often taking into account different types of information. This variety of methodologies confuses the end users and makes the comparison of the AD for different models almost impossible. In this article, we demonstrate that AD is not a monolithic concept and can be broken down into three well-defined sub-domains assessing confidence at the model, prediction and decision levels, respectively. By leveraging this separation of concerns we have an opportunity to clarify, formalize and extend the definition of AD. We propose a framework that captures this new vision with the aim to initiate a global effort to converge towards a common AD definition within the (Q)SAR community.     

Measuring and Controlling Bias for Some Bayesian Inferences and the Relation to Frequentist Criteria

A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in favor. Based upon the principle of evidence, it is shown how to measure and control these biases for both hypothesis assessment and estimation problems. Optimality results are established for the principle of evidence as the basis of the approach to these problems. A close relationship is established between measuring bias in Bayesian inferences and frequentist properties that hold for any proper prior. This leads to a possible resolution to an apparent conflict between these approaches to statistical reasoning. Frequentism is seen as establishing figures of merit for a statistical study, while Bayes determines the inferences based upon statistical evidence.