基于证据推理的混合型多指标群组决策方法

针对决策方案的属性值为语言评价等级和区间灰数的灰色多指标群组决策问题,提出一种基于证据推理的灰色多指标群组决策方法.首先,根据语言评价信息的概率分布和效用值等价原理确定定性指标和定量指标的信用结构,进而得到群体等级信用结构决策矩阵,然后,依据证据推理方法,对群组评价信息进行合成,求出各方案在各等级的信任度,最后,利用期望方差排序方法确定整个方案集的排序.具体算例表明方法合理有效.     

Quality assessment of Cortex Phellodendri by high‐performance liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray ionization mass spectrometry

A simple method based on liquid chromatography coupled with diode array detection and electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (LC‐DAD‐ESI‐MS) was developed for the quality assessment of Cortex Phellodendri (CP), which was mainly derived from two species of Phellodendron chinense Schneid and Phellodendron amurense Rupr. Total 41 compounds, including 14 phenols, 24 alkaloids and three liminoidal triterpenes were identified or tentatively characterized from the 75% methanol extract of CP samples by online ESI‐MSⁿ fragmentation and UV spectra analysis. Among them, two phenols and six alkaloids were simultaneously quantified using HPLC‐DAD method. The validated HPLC‐DAD method showed a good linearity, precision, repeatability and accuracy for the quantification of eight marker compounds. Furthermore, the plausible fragmentation pathway of the representative compounds were proposed in the present study. The differences of the chemical constituents content and the comprehensive HPLC profiles between the two CP species using LC‐DAD‐ESI‐MS method are reported for the first time, indicating that the CP drugs from different resources should be used separately in the clinic. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chromatographic determination,decline dynamic and risk assessment of sulfoxaflor in Asian pear and oriental melon

The dissipation pattern of sulfoxaflor in Asian pear cultivated in an open field conditions and in oriental melon grown under plastic house conditions was each studied in two different locations. Residues in field‐treated samples were determined using liquid chromatography coupled with an ultraviolet detector and confirmed by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. A calibration curve for sulfoxaflor was linear over the concentration range 0.1–5.0 mg/L, with a coefficient of determination of 0.9999. The limits of detection and quantification (LOQ) were 0.007 and 0.02 mg/kg, respectively. Recoveries at three fortification levels (LOQ, 10 × LOQ and maximum residue limit) ranged from 70.5 to 86.2%, with a relative standard deviation ≤5.8%. The dissipation half‐lives were 10.8 and 7.9 days in pear and 5.4 and 5.9 days in oriental melon, at sites 1 and 2, respectively. Based on a pre‐harvest residue limit curve, it was predicted that, if the residues at 10 days before harvest in Asian pear are <0.54/0.61 mg/kg and those in oriental melon are <1.43/1.26 mg/kg, then the residue level will be below the maximum residue limit at harvest. Risk assessment at zero days showed a percentage acceptable daily intake of 10.80% in Asian pear and 1.77 and 1.55% in oriental melon, for sites 1 and 2, respectively. These values indicate that the fruits are safe for consumption.     

约束修正失效评定曲线及内压管道失效分析

用A2参数描述裂纹尖端约束效应,考虑裂纹尖端约束水平对断裂阻力的影响,对R6失效评定曲线进行修正。以X80钢为例,根据不同约束水平试件测试得到的JR–△a曲线,给出了与裂纹尖端约束相关的失效评定曲线。在使用有限元对带裂纹内压管道进行弹塑性分析的基础上,利用失效评定曲线对失效载荷进行预测;与试验结果比较表明:采用约束修正失效评定曲线,在对存在缺陷的构件进行安全性评定、寿命评估、失效概率计算时,考虑约束效应对断裂韧度的影响可以更充分地发挥构件的强度潜力。     

永泰县城峰镇旗山小区后山滑坡现场应急调查及处置分析

2010年5月20日,受连续降雨影响,福建省永泰县城峰镇旗山小区后山发现有滑坡地质灾害隐患,后山中下部产生多条35~80m长拉裂缝,坡脚崩塌不断,潜在滑坡规模约8×10⁴m³,存在继续下滑的危险,情况十分危急,威胁坡脚居民2565人的生命和约5.38亿元财产。本文在对灾害现场进行详细地质调查的基础上,结合现场测绘、监测等手段,对该滑坡体的基本特征进行了较深入的调查研究,对滑坡发生及成灾原因进行了初步分析。结果表明,滑坡区地形条件及岩土体特征是滑坡发生的基本条件,连续降雨的饱水加载作用以及雨水沿节理裂隙结构面的下渗软化作用是诱发滑坡发生的直接原因。同时,根据滑坡险情特征,提出了应处置建议及应急卸载措施。最后,根据监测结果信息化指导应急卸载工作,确保了施工安全及受灾群众的生命财产安全。本次成功排险,对指导福建海沿地区地质灾害应急处置工作提供了科学依据。     

Evaluation of Transparent Optical Network Performance in Presence of Incoherent Homodyne Crosstalk

A simple method to evaluate the performance of transparent optical networks (TON) that takes into account the incoherent homodyne crosstalk, signal distortion, inter-symbol interference (ISI), amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) noise, and arbitrary optical and electrical filters is proposed. This method combines the effect of the incoherent homodyne crosstalk with an exhaustive Gaussian approximation for the influence of ASE noise, signal distortion, and ISI. It is shown that the incoherent homodyne crosstalk penalty depends on the ASE noise accumulated in the TON, ISI, and extinction ratio. The proposed method estimates are compared with experimental results published by other authors. Good agreement is observed for one, two, and four incoherent homodyne crosstalk signals, revealing that the proposed method provides accurate estimates even when the methods based on a Gaussian approximation for the incoherent homodyne crosstalk fail. The proposed method is used to assess the performance of a TON composed by optical add-drop multiplexers based on arrayed waveguide gratings. Results reveal that incoherent homodyne crosstalk, ASE noise, and ISI impair the TON performance and, therefore, none can be neglected in the TON design.     

因子分析在京杭大运河水质评价中的应用

用主成分分析的方法找出影响京杭大运河淮安段水质的主因子,求出因子得分函数,计算各样本的因子得分及水质综合评分,据此对京杭大运河淮安段各监测断面的水质进行评价.     

Quantile regression for modelling distributions of profit and loss

Quantile regression is applied in two retail credit risk assessment exercises exemplifying the power of the technique to account for the diverse distributions that arise in the financial service industry. The first application is to predict loss given default for secured loans, in particular retail mortgages. This is an asymmetric process since where the security (such as a property) value exceeds the loan balance the banks cannot retain the profit, whereas when the security does not cover the value of the defaulting loan then the bank realises a loss. In the light of this asymmetry it becomes apparent that estimating the low tail of the house value is much more relevant for estimating likely losses than estimates of the average value where in most cases no loss is realised. In our application quantile regression is used to estimate the distribution of property values realised on repossession that is then used to calculate loss given default estimates. An illustration is given for a mortgage portfolio from a European mortgage lender. A second application is to revenue modelling. While credit issuing organisations have access to large databases, they also build models to assess the likely effects of new strategies for which, by definition, there is no existing data. Certain strategies are aimed at increasing the revenue stream or decreasing the risk in specific market segments. Using a simple artificial revenue model, quantile regression is applied to elucidate the details of subsets of accounts, such as the least profitable, as predicted from their covariates. The application uses standard linear and kernel smoothed quantile regression.     

高等级公路路线方案的多目标量化优选

应用最小二乘法准则,并改进了层次分析法判断矩阵的构成,获得考虑专家评价水平的诸影响因素权向量;基于集值统计法和属性数学原理,建立了对高等级公路路线方案量化综合评价优选模型,并给出了计算实例.     

Influence of Data Acquisition Environment on Accuracy of Acoustic Voice Quality Measurements

Accuracy of acoustic voice analysis is influenced by the quality of recording. Lately, articles have suggested that soundcards perform equivalently to specialized professional-grade data acquisition (DA) systems. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of DA environment (DA system and microphone) on acoustic voice quality measurement (VQM) while balancing for gender, age, intersubject and intrasubject variability, and analysis software. More specifically, the relative performance of different hardware environments and the relationship between their technical characteristics and VQM performance was investigated. The discretization error and the effective dynamic range of the different DA environments were measured. We used 3 software systems to record and measure separately 2000 acoustic samples of sustained phonation for fundamental frequency, jitter, and shimmer. Analyses of variance (ANOVA) were performed with these parameters as the dependent variables. The results of the study suggested that professional-grade DA hardware is strongly recommended to provide accurate and valid voice assessment. The fundamental frequency measurement differences across DA environments were highly correlated to the discretization error (r=1.00), whereas jitter and shimmer were highly correlated to the effective dynamic range of the DA environments (r=-0.68 and r=-0.86, respectively).