价格波动对进出初级产品行业的影响

初级产品生产行业有两大特点：一是其初级投资有较大的不可逆转性，二是其产品价格具有较大的随机性（不确定性）。这两点的同时存在，给进入和退出初级产品行业造成壁垒。     

低场脉冲核磁共振测定二醋酸纤维素丝束中油剂

研究了采用低场脉冲核磁共振(NMR)测定二醋酸纤维素丝束油剂的新方法，给出NMR法测定二醋酸纤维素丝束油荆含量的标准曲线。同时对NMR法测量二醋酸纤维素丝束油荆不确定度进行了评估。结果表明，NMR法具有分析速度快、无污染、无损伤和准确度高的优点，适合于二醋酸纤维素丝束油荆的分析。     

Metrological role of neutron activation analysis. IB. Inherent characteristics of relative INAA as a primary ratio method of measurement

This is the second part of a paper which deals with the advantages and disadvantages of relative instrumental neutron activation analysis concerning traceability and uncertainty, and the current scope and possible future extensions of neutron activation analysis as a primary ratio method. The first part of this paper has been published in this Journal [1]. Received: 19 March 2001 Accepted: 2 October 2001     

论测量不确定度

讨论了测量不确定度的基本概念及应用。分析了误差和不确定度两个概念的区别，探讨了不确定度及分量的评定方法。     

Setting up of recovery profiles: A tool to perform the compliance with recovery requirements for residue analysis

The use of the recovery term has presented some confusion in Analytical Chemistry. Recent IUPAC recommendations propose to distinguish between two terms: recovery or recovery factor, ℜ, and apparent recovery, ℜ*. Apparent recovery includes recovery factor and a new recovery term proposed in this paper, named calibration recovery, ℜ^C, which depends of the type of systematic error due to the matrix effect (constant and/or proportional) and is related to the applied calibration methodology. This paper highlights the dependence of the calibration recovery on the sample analyte concentration and, for extension, of the apparent recovery, defines the recovery profile, and makes evident the need to determine a “fit for purpose” analyte concentration interval to comply with a regulated recovery requirements. An approach to estimate the calibration recovery and its associated uncertainty in relation to the above-mentioned dependence is presented. The usefulness of the proposed methodology has been shown in the quantification of a pesticide by GC-ECD for assessing dermal exposure.     

Estimation scheme for level-dependent uncertainty of analytical result: application for determination of 1-hydroxypyrene in urine

The estimation scheme of uncertainty of determination of 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) in urine was developed analysing the main stages of the analytical procedure: (1) preparation of 1-OHP standards, (2) creation of the calibration curve for the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis method with the evaluation of recovery, (3) measuring procedure of aliquot of urine, (4) adjusting the pH of aliquot and hydrolysis with enzyme, (5) solid phase extraction, (6) concentration of the extract, (7) injection of the extract to chromatograph and analysing by the HPLC method, (8) calculation of 1-OHP mass from the calibration curve, (9) calculation of 1-OHP concentration in urine. The evaluation of the uncertainty is based on quantification of individual components. Combined uncertainty was calculated using the law of propagation of uncertainties according to the EURACHEM/CITAC guidelines. Level dependence of the uncertainty arises from the calibration curve. The limits of detection and quantification were found to be equal to 0.03 and 0.1 ng/mL, respectively. The calculated expanded level-dependent uncertainty covers 47–27–25% within the concentration range 0.03–0.1–0.4 ng/mL with the materials and equipment used. These parameters could easily be recalculated according to the proposed scheme if there are some changes in the analysis procedure.     

Quality assurance system for a decomposition method as demonstrated for the Wickbold combustion technique

 A five-step model for a quality assurance system is developed for an internal quality control check. It includes the quality control of the decomposition method and the detection method as steps belonging together. The Wickbold combustion technique as decomposition method in combination with atomic absorption spectrometry was chosen. The vaporization of the elements mercury, arsenic, lead, antimony and selenium is based on combustion in an oxyhydrogen flame. To check the efficiency of the analytical system, the uncertainty of results was calculated on the basis of the "Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement". Received: 13 January 1997 · Accepted: 29 March 1997     

Influence of two grinding methods on the uncertainty of determinations of heavy metals in atomic absorption spectrometry/electrothermal atomisation of plant samples

 Chemical analyses of trace elements are affected by relatively high analytical errors due to the different steps of the laboratory procedures: samples grinding, mineralisation and instrumental measurements. In the present communication, the influence of the grinding phase on the global uncertainty of Pb, Cd, Ni and Cr determinations in plant samples by the classical method of atomic absorption spectrometry/electrothermal atomisation (AAS-ETA) after dry ashing is quantified. Two grinding machines, a planetary mill with balls and jars of agate versus a stainless steel grinder were compared by analysing leaf samples of cucumber, strawberry, kiwivines, apple trees and grapevines from agricultural experimental plots under controlled conditions. Variance components due to the difference between grinding methods and experimental plots were estimated. Further, the simultaneous effects of the grinding methods on all considered metals have been evaluated by analysis of variance. With the stainless steel grinder, on average, higher levels of the considered heavy metals were obtained (up to 67% of the mean values). On average, the increments were similar for metals contained in steel (Ni and Cr) and those not contained (Pb and Cd). The true causes of these differences need further investigation to determine whether the higher metal detection is due to possible contamination, to a different grinding quality or to other reasons. Finally, the grinding methods did not seem to affect the combined uncertainty of the analyses. Received: 3 November 1997 · Accepted: 29 November 1997     

To what extent can an uncertainty calculation be general?

 It is argued that results of uncertainty calculations in chemical analysis should be taken into consideration with some caution owing to their limited generality. The issue of the uncertainty in uncertainty estimation is discussed in two aspects. The first is due to the differences between procedure-oriented and result-oriented uncertainty assessments, and the second is due to the differences between the theoretical calculation of uncertainty and its quantication using the validation (experimental) data. It is shown that the uncertainty calculation for instrumental analytical methods using a regression calibration curve is result-oriented and meaningful only until the next calibration. A scheme for evaluation of the uncertainty in uncertainty calculation by statistical analysis of experimental data is given and illustrated with examples from the author's practice. Some recommendations for the design of corresponding experiments are formulated.     

New tools: Expert systems for uncertainty budgets

An important part of quality assurance in any analytical laboratory is the production of comprehensive results integrating uncertainty measurements. Many testing laboratories face the problem that the expenditure required to evaluate small uncertainties (high precision and high accuracy) is often uneconomic. In most cases an uncertainty of high reliability has to be calculated from only a few data (one calibration, few replications, etc.). This problem can be solved by an expert system. To achieve this the analytical procedure has to be structured into a dialouge and divided into parts. The uncertainty has to be calculated for each part of the procedure. Addition of the individual uncertainties results in the combined and expanded uncertainty. During the dialouge the system should advise the analyst how to get an efficient and effective calculation of uncertainty. All calculations, mathematical and statistical procedures have to be surveyable but running the system should not be too time consuming for economic reasons. Within the scope of the EURECA-project initiated by the Eidgenössische Materialprüfungs- und Forschungsanstalt (EMPA), St. Gallen, Switzerland, expert system software is being developed in cooperation with other research institutes and manufacturers of analytical instruments. Using this software it will be possible to calculate the uncertainty for analytical procedures such as titration, atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) and gas- and liquid chromatography (GC, HPLC).