<Emphasis Type="Italic">I</Emphasis>-projection onto isotonic cones and its applications to maximum likelihood estimation for log-linear models

A frequently occurring problem is to find a probability vector,p∈D, which minimizes theI-divergence between it and a given probability vector π. This is referred to as theI-projection of π ontoD. Darroch and Ratcliff (1972,Ann. Math. Statist.,43, 1470–1480) gave an algorithm whenD is defined by some linear equalities and in this paper, for simplicity of exposition, we propose an iterative procedure whenD is defined by some linear inequalities. We also discuss the relationship betweenI-projection and the maximum likelihood estimation for multinomial distribution. All of the results can be applied to isotonic cone.     

Nonparametric Estimation of Regression Functions in Point Process Models

We prove that the empirical L ²-risk minimizing estimator over some general type of sieve classes is universally, strongly consistent for the regression function in a class of point process models of Poissonian type (random sampling processes). The universal consistency result needs weak assumptions on the underlying distributions and regression functions. It applies in particular to neural net classes and to radial basis function nets. For the estimation of the intensity functions of a Poisson process a similar technique yields consistency of the sieved maximum likelihood estimator for some general sieve classes. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A constrained min‐max algorithm for rival models of the same economic system

There are well established rival theories about the economy. These have, in turn, led to the development of rival models purporting to represent the economic system. The models are large systems of discrete-time nonlinear dynamic equations. Observed data of the real system does not, in general, provide sufficient information for statistical methods to invalidate all but one of the rival models. In such a circumstance, there is uncertainty about which model to use in the formulation of policy. Prudent policy design would suggest that a model-based policy should take into account all the rival models. This is achieved as a pooling of the models. The pooling that yields the policy which is robust to model choice is formulated as a constrained min-max problem. The minimization is over the decision variables and the maximization is over the rival models. Only equality constraints are considered.A successive quadratic programming algorithm is discussed for the solution of the min-max problem. The algorithm uses a stepsize strategy based on a differentiable penalty function for the constraints. Two alternative quadratic subproblems can be used. One is a quadratic min-max and the other a quadratic programming problem. The objective function of either subproblem includes a linear term which is dependent on the penalty function. The penalty parameter is determined at every iteration, using a strategy that ensures a descent property as well as the boundedness of the penalty term. The boundedness follows since the strategy is always satisfied for finite values of the parameter which needs to be increased a finite number of times.The global and local convergence of the algorithm is established. The conditions, involving projected Hessian approximations, are discussed under which the algorithm achieves unit stepsizes and subsequently Q-superlinear convergence.     

Multicolor particle systems with large threshold and range

In this paper we consider the Greenberg-Hastings and cyclic color models. These models exhibit (at least) three different types of behavior. Depending on the number of colors and the size of two parameters called the threshold and range, the Greenberg-Hastings model either dies out, or has equilibria that consist of debris or fire fronts. The phase diagram for the cyclic color models is more complicated. The main result of this paper, Theorem 1, proves that the debris phase exists for both systems.     

A review of statistical models for global optimization

A review of statistical models for global optimization is presented. Rationality of the search for a global minimum is formulated axiomatically and the features of the corresponding algorithm are derived from the axioms. Furthermore the results of some applications of the proposed algorithm are presented and the perspectives of the approach are discussed.     

M/G/1/N vacation model with varying E-limited service discipline

We define and analyze anM/G/1/N vacation model that uses a service discipline that we call theE-limited with limit variation discipline. According to this discipline, the server provides service until either the system is emptied (i.e. exhausted) or a randomly chosen limit ofl customers has been served. The server then goes on a vacation before returning to service the queue again. The queue length distribution and the Laplace-Stieltjes transforms of the waiting time, busy period and cycle time distributions are found. Further, an expression for the mean waiting time is developed. Several previously analyzed service disciplines, including Bernoulli scheduling, nonexhaustive service and limited service, are special cases of the general varying limit discipline that is analyzed in this paper.     

基于GARCH模型族的中国股市波动性预测

收益与风险历来都是投资者与研究者所关注的问题 .本文选取 GA RCH、TGARCH和 EGARCH模型来拟合中国股市的波动性 .实证分析结果表明 ,中国股市的波动具有显著的波动聚类性与持续性 ;由 E-GARCH模型所预测的上证 30指数、上证综合指数和深证成份指数未来一天的波动要明显优于 GARCH和TGARCH模型的对应值 ,而对香港恒生指数 ,三种模型的预测结果无显著的差异 .     

Analytic models for commuting operator tuples on bounded symmetric domains

For a domain in and a Hilbert space of analytic functions on which satisfies certain conditions, we characterize the commuting -tuples of operators on a separable Hilbert space  such that is unitarily equivalent to the restriction of to an invariant subspace, where is the operator -tuple on the Hilbert space tensor product  . For the unit disc and the Hardy space , this reduces to a well-known theorem of Sz.-Nagy and Foias; for a reproducing kernel Hilbert space on such that the reciprocal of its reproducing kernel is a polynomial in and  , this is a recent result of Ambrozie, Müller and the second author. In this paper, we extend the latter result by treating spaces for which ceases to be a polynomial, or even has a pole: namely, the standard weighted Bergman spaces (or, rather, their analytic continuation) on a Cartan domain corresponding to the parameter in the continuous Wallach set, and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for which is a rational function. Further, we treat also the more general problem when the operator is replaced by ,  being a certain generalization of a unitary operator tuple. For the case of the spaces on Cartan domains, our results are based on an analysis of the homogeneous multiplication operators on , which seems to be of an independent interest.

     

广义线性模型(六)

本讲座是广义线性模型这个题目的一个比较系统的介绍。主要分 3部分 :建模、统计分析与模型选择和诊断。写作时依据的主要参考资料是L .Fahrmeir等人的 :《MultivariateStatisticalModel ingBasedonGeneralizedLinearModles》。