Computational Modeling of Organizations Comes of Age

As they are maturing—i.e., as they are becoming validated, calibrated and refined—computational emulation models of organizations are evolving into: powerful new kinds of organizational design tools for predicting and mitigating organizational risks; and flexible new kinds of organizational theorem-provers for validating extant organization theory and developing new theory. Over the past 50 years, computational modeling and simulation have had enormous impacts on the rate of advancement of knowledge in fields like physics, chemistry and, more recently, biology; and their subsequent application has enabled whole new areas of engineering practice. In the same way, as our young discipline comes of age, computational organizational models are beginning to impact behavioral, organizational and economic science, and management consulting practice. This paper attempts to draw parallels between computational modeling in natural sciences and computational modeling of organizations as a contributor to both social science and management practice.To illustrate the lifecycle of a computational organizational model that is now relatively mature, this paper traces the evolution of the Virtual Design Team (VDT) computational modeling and simulation research project at Stanford University from its origins in 1988 to the present. It lays out the steps in the process of validating VDT as a computational emulation model of organizations to the point that VDT began to influence management practice and, subsequently, to advance organizational science. We discuss alternate research trajectories that can be taken by computational and mathematical modelers who prefer the typical natural science validation trajectory—i.e., who attempt to impact organizational science first and, perhaps subsequently, to impact management practice.The paper concludes with a discussion of the current state-of-the-art of computational modeling of organizations and some thoughts about where, and how rapidly, the field is headed.     

New Approach to Model Validation and Fault Diagnosis

The paper presents a new approach to model validation and fault diagnosis problems for a class of uncertain systems in which the uncertainty is described by an integral quadratic constraint. The new approach is developed by applying methods from linear quadratic optimal control theory. This leads to a method for model validation and fault diagnosis which is based around a robust Kalman filter type structure.     

运用Poincaré-Miranda定理数值验证变分不等式解的存在性

本文运用Poincaré-Miranda定理数值验证变分不等式问题解的存在性.证明这一新方法相对于已有的方法更具有普遍性,并通过数值例子说明本方法的高效性.     

A critical investigation of smoothed particle hydrodynamics applied to problems with free‐surfaces

In this paper, an in‐depth study of SPH method, in its original weakly compressible version, is achieved on dedicated 2D and 3D free‐surface flow test cases. These rather critical prototype problems shall constitute suitable test cases to get through when building a free‐surface SPH model. The present work aims at investigating various numerical aspects of this method, often little mentioned in literature. In particular, a great care is paid to the dynamic part of the solution, which is critical to the local hydrodynamic load prediction. The role of numerical errors in the development of acoustic frequencies in the pressure signals is discussed, as well as the influence of the choice of the sound velocity. On the shown test problems, it is also evidenced that some numerical tools are crucial to ensure the robustness and accuracy of the standard SPH method. The convergence of our model is heuristically proved on these nonlinear prototype tests, showing at the same time the very satisfactory level of accuracy reached. Through these tests, some other numerical specificities of the SPH method are discussed, such as the self‐redistribution of the particles occurring during the Lagrangian evolution. A higher order model is also proposed, and its advantages and drawbacks are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toward a formalism of modeling and simulation using model theory

This article proposes a Modeling and Simulation (M&S) formalism using Model Theory. The article departs from the premise that M&S is the science that studies the nature of truth using models and simulations. Truth in models and simulations is relative as they seek to answer specific modeling questions. Consequently, truth in M&S is relative because every model is a purposeful abstraction of reality. We use Model Theory to express the proposed formalism because it is built from the premise that truth is relative. The proposed formalism allows us to: (1) deduce formal definitions and explanations of areas of study in M&S, including conceptual modeling, validity, and interoperability, and (2) gain insight into which tools can be used to semi‐automate validation and interoperation processes. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 19: 56–63, 2014     

Classical model validation for control design purposes

Model Validation is at the heart of the System Identification process. Recently, much renewed interest has been expressed in so called "identification for control". This means that the design variables associated with the identification process are tailored to achieve models that are well suited for control design purposes. A separate, but closely related issue is to devise validation tests that give information about the model's quality and suitability for control design. This paper shows and discusses how a basic and classical residual test gives such information.     

变系数计量经济学联立模型的局部线性工具向量估计及其性质

联立方程计量经济学模型在经济政策制定、经济结构分析和经济预测方面起着重要作用。本文首次提出了我国宏观经济的一类变系数联立模型,并建立了函数系数的局部线性工具向量估计,同时在时间点列固定设计、经济变量随机设计条件下,研究了估计量的大样本性质。与我国宏观经济经典线性联立模型相比,变系数联立模型拟合效果更优。另外它也有助于克服我国宏观经济数据不多而造成的非参数方法应用困难的现实情况。     

拉曼光谱编码的荧光液相生物芯片检测系统研究

随着医疗诊断需求的增加,生物分子检测技术越来越受到人们的重视,液相生物芯片技术作为一种高通量,多通道的分子检测手段在近几年得到了飞速发展。通过层层自组装方法制备以微片为载体的拉曼光谱编码液相生物芯片,并利用自行搭建的一套高灵敏度、高分辨率的光学系统,实现对液相生物芯片的定性与定量分析。光学系统由拉曼光谱检测系统与荧光显微成像系统耦合而成。在拉曼光谱检测系统中激光器发射出785nm波长的激光,通过二向色镜,带反反射镜与物镜汇聚到样品上,样品产生的拉曼散射光,经物镜,带反反射镜,二向色镜与拉曼滤波片,最后通过凹透镜聚焦到光谱仪的狭缝上,光谱仪色散实现在线阵CCD上拉曼光谱的获取。荧光显微成像系统应用光学成像原理,通过调节凹透镜与405nm的激发光之间的距离,使激发光通过物镜均匀的照射到样品之上,样品激发出的荧光,通过物镜,带反反射镜,二向色镜,滤波片与相应的凹透镜,最后成像到面阵CCD上。改进传统便携式拉曼光谱检测系统光路并选用相应波段的带反反射镜与焦距20倍的物镜完成拉曼光谱检测系统与荧光显微成像系统的耦合。为了减少两路系统之间的相互影响选用合适的二向色镜以及滤波片,在提高耦合系统获取数据的准确性中有着重要的作用。该系统通过对反应之后的液相生物芯片进行拉曼光谱检测,以完成对每个编码玻片的定性识别,即解码;同时激发反应后液相生物芯片的荧光并采集荧光强度图,根据每个解码玻片上的荧光强度值完成对目标检测物的定量分析。区别于传统荧光编码液相生物芯片,拉曼光谱编码具有稳定性更强,光谱分辨率更高等优点。该光学系统集拉曼光谱检测系统与荧光显微成像系统于一体,解决了目前未有基于拉曼编码的液相生物芯片的检测系统的问题,并且可同时对多种目标物进行识别和定量分析,提升了实验结果的准确性。     

近红外定性分析模型的稳健性与适应性分析

研究了近红外定性分析中模型的稳健性与适应性问题。讨论了单独建模延长建模周期对模型性能的影响,结果显示这种方法可以显著提高模型的稳健性,同时对模型的台间适应性也有所提升,但提升作用有限;研究了不同仪器联合建模的方法对模型性能的影响,该方法不仅可以显著提高模型的适应性,而且可以有效提高模型的稳健性。对比单独建模,可以缩短建模时间,减少模型建立的工作量;延长模型的适用期限,提高建模效率。结果表明,对模型适应性的测试,单独建模其正确识别率较低,不能满足应用的要求,而多台仪器联合建模可以达到90%以上,提升效果明显;对模型稳健性的测试,联合建模也能得到相比单独建模更好的模型识别效果,具有很好的应用价值。