基于多项式回归函数的电网公司售电量预测方法

电网公司售电量是具有"逐年增长趋势"的离散型随机变量,用传统的平均年增长率计算的指数预测模型,因"增长过快"而易偏离该地区的电源供给能力.文中提出了带有电源供给能力约束条件的回归函数筛选及其综合方法,并由此建立了电网公司售电量的多项式回归预测模型及其检验方法.最后通过一个实例,具体介绍了这一方法的应用.     

利用VB模拟升降法测电子电荷实验

密立根首创的油滴实验精确地测量出基本电荷量,是一个名而有启发性的近代物理经典实验。本主要介绍利用Visual Basic模拟并对实验数据进行处理的辅助教学课件。     

Numerical studies on velocity, temperature history and heat transfer to the particles injected into the argon plasma

A new approach to study the particle velocity in a thermal plasma in relation to input parameters (power, gas flow rate, injection velocity of the particle and particle size) and nozzle dimensions (nozzle length and diameter) has been made. Injected particle's temperature and thermal history were calculated for particles of three different materials (alumina, tungsten and graphite) in argon plasma. Allowable powder feed rate was calculated for the particles. Heat transfer per particle injected in to the plasma is reported. Liquid fraction of the particle after it reached the melting point is also reported. Particle velocity is found to increase with increase in power, gas flow rate and injection velocity and decrease with increase in particle size, nozzle length and nozzle diameter. Thermal histories of the particles in relation to the plasma temperature and particle diameter are presented. Particle's residence time is found to increase with increase in diameter of the particle. Allowable powder feed rate for complete melting of the particle is higher at higher percentage utilisation of the plasma power. Powder feed rate is seen to decrease with increase in particle size and it is higher for tungsten and lower for graphite particle. Heat transfer rate from plasma to particle is seen to decrease with increase in time and the same is higher for plasmas of higher temperature and smaller sized particle. Received 4 May 2000 and Received in final form 15 March 2001     

菲涅耳公式的几何图示与应用

电磁波通过两种透明介质的分界面时,反射波、折射波和入射波的电矢量分量的大小和方向之间的关系可由菲涅耳公式说明,作通过分析和推导,给出了菲涅耳公式的几何图示,这使得在分析光学问题时,谱得简单和直观。     

三相供电线路的漏电流分布规律

面对安全用电的严峻形式 ,经国内外的实践证明 ,安装使用漏电保护开关对于防止触电身亡 ,避免设备接触地故障损坏和漏电引起火灾事故 ,及减少漏电引起的电能损耗 ,具有明显效果。然而对于漏电保护开关的跳闸临界值具有很大歧义 ,因此我们首先对漏电流进行分布拟合 ,将得出的参数值进行随机模拟 ,以此来制定漏电保护开关的跳闸临界值     

输电装置的传输特性

输电装置在航空、航天、航海及精密仪器中获得了广泛地应用,籍以实现两个相对转动部件间的讯号传输。输电装置作为惯性平台中一个关键的部件,其性能、外形的指标可直接影响整个惯性系统的优劣。针对惯性平台所采用的输电装置,经过反复大量地试验研究,对其传输特性进行了全面分析,应用电接触学理论,提出了电刷材料与接触电阻之间的对应关系,并提出了一种全新的测试接触电阻的较为精密的方法。理论分析和实验结果表明,提出的方法是切实可行的,适用于惯性平台所采用的所有型号的输电装置。     

An Oligopolistic Investment Model of the Finnish Electricity Market

The investment problem faced by producers in deregulated electricity markets contains high uncertainties about the future. It can also be seen as a game, as only a small number of large players act in the market. A dynamic stochastic oligopoly model to describe the production and investment in such a situation is developed and applied to the Finnish electricity market. The demand growth rate is modeled as a stochastic variable. The strategies of the firms consist of investments and production levels for base and peak load periods. The firms have nuclear, hydro and thermal capacities, but are only allowed to invest in new thermal capacity. Using a so-called sample-path adapted open-loop information structure, the model contributes to the understanding of the dynamics of production, investment and market power in a medium time horizon. The solution method uses recent developments in variational inequality and mixed complementarity problem formulations.     

Estimation of Electricity Market Distribution Functions

In an electricity pool market the market distribution function gives the probability that a generator offering a certain quantity of power at a certain price will not be dispatched all of this quantity by the pool. It represents the uncertainty in a pool market associated with the offers of the other agents as well as demand. We present a general Bayesian update scheme for market distribution functions. To illustrate the approach a particular form of this procedure is applied to real data obtained from a New Zealand electricity generator.     

Air ions as possible environmental monitors

Summary Measurements in air of both positive and negative ions ((0.001÷0.003) μm diameter) concentrations were made on a monthly basis in the following different sites: a mountain top and a natural Gallery of the Gran Sasso laboratory. From the analysis of preliminary data, these concentration values seem to be strictly dependent upon the environmental characteristics and might be used as environmental monitors.