基于累积前景理论的联盟企业知识转移演化博弈分析

知识转移过程是一个复杂的博弈过程,演化博弈论可以很好地解释转移主体行为。考虑到传统的演化博弈模型不能对知识转移主体非理性心理因素及风险偏好问题进行有效解释,本文将累积前景理论与演化博弈相结合,运用前景价值函数完善支付矩阵的部分参数,分析博弈模型的演化稳定策略。通过仿真模拟得出如下结论:知识转移存在两个演化稳定策略;转移策略由直接收益、转移成本及前景损益等因素决定;转移方的风险损失对转移策略影响较大,而接收方潜在收入对知识转移策略影响较小。     

基于灰色聚类分析的风险评价方法研究——以江苏民间资本进入金融领域风险评价为例

运用灰色系统理论,结合AHP方法,建立灰色聚类分析模型,对风险进行评价,并以江苏民间资本进入金融领域风险评价为例进行研究.结果表明,民间资本进入金融领域的风险属于高风险范畴,其中进入风险中的产业风险和社会风险属于高风险,信用风险属于较高风险,政治风险属于中等风险.并针对上述风险的等级,提出了相应的政策建议.模型具有一定的实用价值,它对于正确认识民间资本进入金融领域的风险和有针对性地制定相应的政策措施具有一定的理论和现实意义.     

Aggregate production planning for process industries under oligopolistic competition

We consider a competitive version of the traditional aggregate production planning model with capacity constraints. In the general case, multiple products are produced by a few competing producers (oligopoly) with limited capacities. Production quantities, prices and consequently profits depend on production and allocation decisions of each producer. In addition, there is competition for the raw material whose supplies are limited, and where prices reflect these limitations. Such situations have recently occurred in several process industry settings including petro-refining, petrochemicals, basic chemicals, cement, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, rubber, paper, food processing and metals. We use a successive “Bertrand–Cournot” framework to address this problem and to determine optimal production quantities, prices and profits at the producers and at the raw material supplier. Our analysis allows a new way to understand and evaluate the marginal value of additional capacity when there is competition for the market and raw materials.     

新世纪中国建筑产业竞争力形成机理动态演进规律研究——兼论加入GPA后的发展策略

中国即将加入政府采购协议,面对大量优质外资企业的进入,中国建筑市场将面临更为激烈的竞争。为此,探索中国建筑产业竞争力形成机理动态演进规律、分析目前竞争力在发展过程中存在的不足,科学引导、合理调控建筑产业的健康发展,具有重要的现实意义。基于此,本研究构建出中国建筑产业竞争力评价指标体系,并采用多指标系统评估指数法构建建筑产业竞争力评价模型,分析出2005~2008年间中国建筑产业各竞争要素重要程度的变化趋势,以描绘建筑产业竞争力形成机理动态演进规律。研究发现,中国建筑产业依旧处于劳动密集型与资金密集型的发展初级阶段、产业整体素质低、注重规模忽视效率;生产要素的简单追加投入是当前提高产业竞争能力最为有效的途径,且这种状况逐步加强。最后,剖析了中国建筑产业竞争力不强的主要原因,并有针对性地提出改善措施。     

高等学校化工安全管理课程案例教学法初探

以高等学校培养工科类专业学生为背景,探讨案例教学法在化工安全管理课程中的必要性和可行性,采用具体案例说明教学过程,并根据调查问卷的结果对案例教学法的实施效果进行评价,对不尽人意之处提出改进措施。     

Uranium and fluorine cycles in the nuclear industry

In the nuclear fuel cycle, fluorine is currently not recycled. In this paper, we have examined the possible routes to implement such a cycle. Because UF₆ deconversion requires an excess of water, aqueous HF is produced. Two alternatives are then possible: either separate HF from H₂O or recycle the HF-H₂O in the deconversion process. Alternative UF₆ deconversion could also be implemented to resorb the high UF₆ inventory.     

浊点萃取技术的应用

浊点萃取是近年发展起来的一种新兴的萃取技术。重点阐述了浊点萃取在环境样品、生物样品和食品工业分析中的应用,总结了浊点萃取技术的优点,指出了存在的问题,探讨了该技术的发展前景。     

Modelling and forecasting vehicle stocks using the trends of stochastic Gompertz diffusion models: The case of Spain

In the present study, we treat the stochastic homogeneous Gompertz diffusion process (SHGDP) by the approach of the Kolmogorov equation. Firstly, using a transformation in diffusion processes, we show that the probability transition density function of this process has a lognormal time‐dependent distribution, from which the trend and conditional trend functions and the stationary distribution are obtained. Second, the maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of parameters estimation in the drift and the diffusion coefficient using discrete sampling of the process, then the approximated asymptotic confidence intervals of the parameter are obtained. Later, we obtain the corresponding inference of the stochastic homogeneous lognormal diffusion process as limit from the inference of SHGDP when the deceleration factor tends to zero. A statistical methodology, based on the above results, is proposed for trend analysis. Such a methodology is applied to modelling and forecasting vehicle stocks. Finally, an application is given to illustrate the methodology presented using real data, concretely the total vehicle stocks in Spain. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于灰色关联度的中国海洋产业结构分析

简要分析了中国海洋经济的发展现状与趋势, 着重对我国主要海洋产业进行了关联度分析, 得出我国海洋经济的支柱产业和主导产业以及海洋产业结构存在的问题, 并据此提出了中国海洋产业结构优化升级对策等方面的建议.