A FULL ANNUAL CYCLE MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR AMERICAN BLACK DUCKS

American black ducks (Anas rubripes) are a harvested, international migratory waterfowl species in eastern North America. Despite an extended period of restrictive harvest regulations, the black duck population is still below the population goal identified in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP). It has been hypothesized that density‐dependent factors restrict population growth in the black duck population and that habitat management (increases, improvements, etc.) may be a key component of growing black duck populations and reaching the prescribed NAWMP population goal. Using banding data from 1951 to 2011 and breeding population survey data from 1990 to 2014, we developed a full annual cycle population model for the American black duck. This model uses the seven management units as set by the Black Duck Joint Venture, allows movement into and out of each unit during each season, and models survival and fecundity for each region separately. We compare model population trajectories with observed population data and abundance estimates from the breeding season counts to show the accuracy of this full annual cycle model. With this model, we then show how to simulate the effects of habitat management on the continental black duck population.     

AN INDICATOR FOR ECOSYSTEM EXTERNALITIES IN FISHING

Ecosystem externalities arise when one use of an ecosystem affects its other uses through the production functions of the ecosystem. We use simulations with a size‐spectrum ecosystem model to investigate the ecosystem externality created by fishing of multiple species. The model is based upon general ecological principles and is calibrated to the North Sea. Two fleets are considered: a “forage fish” fleet targeting species that mature at small sizes and a “large fish” fleet targeting large piscivorous species. Based on the marginal analysis of the present value of the rent, we develop a benefit indicator that explicitly divides the consequences of fishing into internal and external benefits. This analysis demonstrates that the forage fish fleet has a notable economic impact on the large fish fleet, but the reverse is not true. The impact can be either negative or positive, which entails that for optimal economic exploitation, the forage fishery has to be adjusted according to the large fish fishery. With the present large fish fishery in the North Sea, the two fisheries are well adjusted; however, the present combined exploitation level is too high to achieve optimal economic rents.     

基于Douglas生产函数的广西经济增长因素分析

基于柯布-道格拉斯(Douglas)生产函数,建立1995年至2012年广西经济发展模型,利用R统计软件求出资本和劳动力的产出弹性系数分别为0.81和0.19,再利用索洛增长速度方程求出资本投入、劳力投入和技术进步对广西经济增长的贡献率分别为141.8%、1.5%、-43.3%,这三个因素分别拉动经济增长15.8百分点、0.2百分点和-4.8百分点.表明了资本投入是广西近十几年来经济增长的决定性因素,劳动投入和技术进步对经济增长的贡献比较有限,广西的经济还是处于粗放投入型的增长模式.     

广西河池软玉的谱学和产地特征研究

广西河池市所产的软玉主要颜色是白色、青白色,少量墨绿色和黑色,是近两年才出现的品种,但是在市场上却占有不小份额,与其他产地相比,本区大部分软玉质地干,油脂光泽弱,且多数不透明,没有“水线”,常具有白色或者灰白色条带状包体以及褐色或者黑色“花瓣”状包体,市场上直接以“花瓣玉”进行销售。通过常规测试、拉曼光谱(Raman)、X光粉晶衍射(XRD)等测试,研究结果表明：广西河池软玉折射率为1.616～1.632,样品相对密度平均值为2.895,紫外荧光下样品均显示为惰性;样品的玉质部分和条带部分拉曼谱峰与标准软玉拉曼峰基本一致,主要峰值集中在225,370,676,1 029和3 677 cm-1,拉曼光谱和XRD测试表明玉石中的白色条带状包体的矿物组成依然为软玉,但是与周边玉石部分的软玉有不同的排列方式和颗粒大小,因此肉眼观察显示出条带状,并与正常玉石部分相比具有不同的颜色和透明度特征;经测试和计算发现研究样品结晶度平均值为0.963,大于新疆软玉样品的结晶度平均值0.843,与青海软玉结晶度0.96相近,反映出该区软玉的结晶程度较高,晶体颗粒相对较大的特征,预示其结晶过程冷却缓慢的特点,样品的结晶度好且同时颗粒排列比较不规则,造成玉石整体透明度下降。LIBS测试软玉中铍/硅强度比(I_Be/I_Si)显示新疆软玉为0.003～0.008,青海软玉为0,辽宁软玉为0.004～0.006,韩国软玉为0.1～0.16,俄罗斯软玉为0.03～0.05,广西河池软玉与青海软玉相同为0。     

Self-consistent optimization of molecular geometries by semi-empirical force field method : Part I. Computational scheme

A force field method based on the semi-empirical force approach is used to predict the completely optimized geometries of both the stationary and the saddle points on the molecular energy hyper-surface. The computational aspects are discussed and the organization of computer programs is briefly described. The convergence properties are examined based on the results obtained from MINDO theory.     

Nuciferols A and B: Novel sesquineolignans from Cocos nucifera

Two novel epimers, named nuciferols A (1) and B (2), possessing a unique 6.9′, 9.6′, 7′.8″-cyclosesquineolignan skeleton, were isolated from the ethyl acetate fraction of the endocarp of Cocos nucifera. Their planar structure was elucidated by 1D-, 2D-NMR, HRESIMS and their absolute configuration was determined by ECD. Nuciferols A and B showed radical scavenging activity using DPPH assay, and only nuciferol B showed neuroprotective effects against t-BHP induced cell death in N2a cells.     

Catalytic hydrogenation of propene over polymer supported rhodium complexes

Hydrogenation of propene and other substrates has been studied in flow and batch reactors using various rhodium catalysts. The results show that in some cases rhodium metal is probably formed, but only if solvent is present. A possible explanation is given.     

Towards a unified characterization of phenological phases: Fluctuations and correlations with temperature

Phenological timing-i.e. the course of annually recurring development stages in nature-is of particular interest since it can be understood as a proxy for the climate at a specific region; moreover changes in the so-called phenological phases can be a direct consequence of climate change. We analyze records of botanical phenology and study their fluctuations which we find to depend on the seasons. In contrast to previous studies, where typically trends in the phenology of individual species are estimated, we consider the ensemble of all available phases and propose a phenological index that characterizes the influence of climate on a multitude of botanical species.