Evidence of a worldwide stock market log-periodic anti-bubble since mid-2000

Following our investigation of the USA Standard and Poor index anti-bubble that started in August 2000 (Quant. Finance 2 (2002) 468), we analyze 38 world stock market indices and identify 21 “bearish anti-bubbles” and six “bullish anti-bubbles”. An “anti-bubble” is defined as a self-reinforcing price trajectory with self-similar expanding log-periodic oscillations. Mathematically, a bearish anti-bubble is characterize by a power law decrease of the price (or of the logarithm of the price) as a function of time and by expanding log-periodic oscillations. We propose that bearish anti-bubbles are created by positive price-to-price feedbacks feeding overall pessimism and negative market sentiment further strengthened by inter-personal interactions. Bullish anti-bubbles are here identified for the first time. The most striking discovery is that the majority of European and Western stock market indices as well as other stock indices exhibit practically the same log-periodic power law anti-bubble structure as found for the USA S&P500 index. These anti-bubbles are found to start approximately at the same time, August 2000, in all these markets. This shows a remarkable degree of worldwide synchronization. The descent of the worldwide stock markets since 2000 is thus an international event, suggesting the strengthening of globalization.     

Nonparametric estimation and adaptive control in a class of finite Markov decision chains

We consider a class of Markov decision processes withfinite state and action spaces which, essentially, is determined by the following condition: The state space isirreducible under the action of any stationary policy. However, except by this restriction, the transition law iscompletely unknown to the controller. In this context, we find a set of policies under which thefrequency estimators of the transition law are strongly consistent and then, this result is applied to constructadaptive asymptotically discount-optimal policies.Dedicated to Professor Truman O. Lewis, on the occasion of his sixtieth birthdayThis research was supported in part by the Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) under Grant TWAS RG MP 898-152, and in part by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT) under Grant A128CCOEO550 (MT-2).     

Zeroth-order phase transitions and Zipf law quantization

From the standpoint of thermodynamic averaging of fission microprocesses, we investigate the origin of radioactive release in an NPP after an accident or after resource depletion. The genesis of the NPP release is interpreted as a new thermodynamic phenomenon, a zeroth-order phase transition. This problem setting results in a problem in probabilistic number theory. We prove the corresponding theorem leading to quantization of the Zipf law for the frequency of a zeroth-order phase transition with different values of the jump of the Gibbs thermodynamic potential. We introduce the notion of hole dimension. __________ Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 150, No. 1, pp. 118–142, January, 2007.     

Integrable semiclassical deformations of general algebraic curves and associated conservation laws

Based on the Lenard relations, we completely classify integrable deformations of general algebraic curves. We construct the general solution of the Lenard relation from the invariance condition with respect to an element of the Galois group of the curve. We give some examples and also some associated conservation laws. __________ Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 151, No. 3, pp. 458–469, June, 2007.     

Domain decomposition for an asymptotic geological fault modeling

We present in this paper a domain decomposition method to treat faults in geological basin modeling. The particularity of this model is that the faults whose widths are very small in comparison with the basin size, are not characterized as subdomains any more but as interfaces between sedimentary blocks. The originality of this work lies in the formulation of this new fault model and in the definition and the computation of the interface conditions between the subdomains. To cite this article: E. Flauraud et al., C. R. Mecanique 331 (2003).     

对数似然比与整值随机变量序列的一类强律

本文引进对数似然比作为整值随机变量序列相对于服从几何分布的独立随机变量序列的偏差的一种度量,并通过限制对数似然比给出了样本空间的一个子集.在此子集上得到了一类用不等式表示的强律,其中包含整值随机变量序列与相对熵密度及几何分布的熵函数有关的若干极限性质.     

A note on conservation laws for a multiclass service queueing system with setup times

This paper derives a conservation law for mean waiting times in a single-server multi-class service queueing system (M ^X/G/1 type queue) with setup times which may be dependent on multiple customer classes and its arrival batch size by using the work decomposition property in the queueing system with vacations.     

On the phase space approach to complexity

We elaborate in some detail on a new phase space approach to complexity, due to Y.-C. Zhang. We show in particular that the connection between maximal complexity and power law noise or correlations can be derived from a simple variational principle. For a 1D signal we find 1/f noise, in accordance with Zhang.     

事件空间中二阶非Четаев型非完整系统的守恒律

研究事件空间中二阶非чeTaeB型非完整系统的守恒律。提出事件空间中的Jourdain原理，引入事件空间中的Jorudain生成元，给出无限小变换下的Jourdain原理的不变性条件。在一定条件下得到事件空间中系统的守恒律。并举例说明结果的应用。     

A PICARD TYPE THEOREM AND BLOCH LAW

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