AN ENCOMPASSING APPROACH TO MODELING FISHERY DYNAMICS: MODELING DYNAMIC NONLINEAR SYSTEMS

Uncertainty about the nature and significance of nonlinearities and the manner in which dynamics affect future realizations makes model specification the most difficult aspect of modeling dynamic systems. By interpreting several popular fishery models as subcases of a nesting dynamic Taylor series approximation, we isolate the specification differences between these models in a way that accounts for commonalities. On the argument that the differences due to alternative nonlinear forms are likely to be small compared to more mundane considerations such as delay difference and general dynamic lag specification, we propose an alternative model that uses the terms from the first order approximation common to all models combined with a data-based determination of the appropriate lags using the methods of state space time series analysis. Finally, the success of the alternative models is judged in an application to Pacific halibut data.     

激光沉积超导薄膜过程中出射粒子速度的飞行时间谱分析

采用飞行时间谱技术,测量了准分子激光烧蚀沉积高温超导薄膜过程中,由靶面出射粒子的飞行速度。研究了粒子速度与充氧压及其激光能量密度的关系。讨论了高能粒子在薄膜原位低温外延生长中的作用。     

HL－1装置辅助加热等对能量约束的影响

在ＨＬ－１托卡马克上进行了辅助加热、加料、电流驱动的物理实验研究。在改善等离子体约束方面，某些实验取得了较好的结果。在适当的稳定放电条件下，低杂波电流驱动和弹丸注入辅助加料，均能使等离子体能量约束得到一定程度的改善，与相同密度条件下的欧姆加热放电相比，能量约束时间提高了约３０％。在电子回旋共振加热等离子体实验中，等离子体总能量明显增加，但与相同密度条件下的欧姆加热放电相比，能量约束时间减少了约２０％。     

KNbO3：Fe晶体的时间微分效应及图像追踪

本文观察到了KNbO_3:Fe晶体的时间微分效应,并用这个微分效应进行了图像追踪的演示,为KNbO_3:Fe晶体在光折变器件领域的应用进行了有益的探索。     

Particle multiplicities in the fission-like reactions of 340 MeV Si on Th

Pre-scission and post-scission multiplicities of neutrons and alpha particles have been simultaneously measured for the fission-like reactions of 340 MeV ²⁸Si on ²³²Th. Dynamical model calculations using HICOL code predict that about 90% of the observed events are of quasi-fission type while the remaining 10% are from compound nucleus fission decay. Moving source fits were carried out to the observed neutron and alpha particle spectra, measured at different angles with respect to the fragment directions. The pre-scission and post-scission neutron multiplicities are deduced to be 8.7±2.0 and 9.4±2.0, respectively. The corresponding multiplicity values for alpha particles are found to be 0.22±0.08 and 0.1±0.03. From the measured post-scission neutron multiplicity, it is inferred that about 65±20 MeV of the initial excitation energy remains at scission. This may be compared to the value of 85±30 MeV estimated from PACE2 statistical model calculations, adjusted to reproduce the measured pre-scission neutron multiplicity. From a comparison of the Statistical Model predictions with the measured pre-scission neutron multiplicity, the fission delay is estimated to be of 5⁺⁷₋₃×10⁻²⁰ s which overlaps with the average duration of fission-like process from the contact to the scission point (2×10⁻²⁰ s) as determined from HICOL-based dynamical calculations. For the delay time deduced as above, the pre-scission alpha particle multiplicity calculated by the PACE2 code is about a factor two larger than the experimental one, demonstrating the difficulties in modelling the alpha particle emission from highly elongated shapes that characterize the fissioning system from the contact point to scission.     

关于双重时序AR-MA模型的相关结构及与ARMA模型的比较

本文在文［４］的基础上讨论了双重时序ＡＲ（１）－ＭＡ（ｑ）模型的相关结构，在不假定白噪声序列为正态的情况下，证明了安鸿志［２］关于模型的相关结构的猜想是正确的，具体地构造了ＡＲ（１）－ＭＡ（３）模型的相关结构，并与ＡＲＭＡ模型进行了初步的比较，给出了一些抛砖引玉的讨论．     

狭义相对论效应──运动时钟变慢的计算机模拟演示实验

利用精炼的C语言进行程序设计，定量模拟狭义相结论的运动时钟变慢，并对处于两种不同时空观的时钟运行进行对比，使得时间膨胀效应变得直观。     

Some path properties of generalized Lévy sheet

Let X(t) be an N parameter generalized Lévy sheet taking values in ℝ^d with a lower index α, ℜ = {(s, t] = ∏ _i=1 ^N (s _i, t _i], s _i < t _i}, E(x, Q) = {t ∈ Q: X(t) = x}, Q ∈ ℜ be the level set of X at x and X(Q) = {x: ∃t ∈ Q such that X(t) = x} be the image of X on Q. In this paper, the problems of the existence and increment size of the local times for X(t) are studied. In addition, the Hausdorff dimension of E(x, Q) and the upper bound of a uniform dimension for X(Q) are also established.     

AN ESTIMATE ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND MOMENTS OF THE LAST EXIT TIME OF AN ELLIPTIC DIFFUSION PROCESS

Let LB be the last exit time from a compact set B of an elliptic diffusion process X. A moderate estimate for the distribution of LB is obtained, and the sufficient and necessary condition for Ex(LBk)<∞is proved.     

The Spirit Is Willing: Nonlinearity, Bifurcations, and Mental Control

In recent years there has been considerable interest in the construction of nonlinear models of the dynamics of human behavior. In this exploratory article we argue that attempts at controlling problematic thoughts, emotions, or behaviors can lead to nonlinearity in mental/behavioral dynamics. We illustrate our model by fitting threshold autoregression models to self-recorded time series of the daily highs in intensity of anxiety and obsessive ruminations, kept by an individual in therapy for this problem. In our discussion, we raise the possibility that bifurcations that occur in this nonlinear model may offer insight into mental control paradoxes.