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In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection. 相似文献
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LIU Jixue ZHANG Sanguo & CHEN Xiru Department of Statistics Finance University of Science Technology of China Hefei China Department of Mathematics Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China 《中国科学A辑(英文版)》2006,49(6):752-769
This paper studies the linear EV model when replicate observations are made only on independent variables. We construct the estimates of regression coefficients and prove the consistency and asymptotic normality under some proper conditions. Results obtained reveal the difference between the case where the independent and dependent variables are observed repeatedly and simultaneously and the case studied in this article. 相似文献
106.
GAO Jing ZHOU Xiaohua CHEN Xun Chongqing University Chemical Engineering Department Chongqing China 《Chinese Journal of Reactive Polymers》2006,(2)
1. INTRODUCTION In the process of coking plant, about 30%~35% sulfur is transformed to H2S and some other sulfide, which form impurity in coal gas together with NH3 and HCN. Only 0.1% H2S containing in air can lead to die, so it is very important to carry on desulphurization and decyanation with coal gas [1~3]. Currently desulphurization and decyanation craft technique have Dry Oxidation Technology, Wet Oxidation Technology and Liquid Absorption Technology [2] three main kinds. The… 相似文献
107.
The diffraction of plane surface gravitational waves by the edge of an ice cover lying on the surface of an incompressible fluid of infinitely great depth is considered. The ice cover is simulated by a thin elastic plate. The wave reflection and transmission coefficients are determined when it interacts with the ice cover. A wave field is constructed in the fluid under the conditions that a periodic lumped force and a lumped moment act on the edge of the ice cover. It is shown that as the incident wavelength increases the reflection coefficient tends to zero and the transmission coefficient tends to unity. 相似文献
108.
DING Bin-Gang ZHANG Da-Li LU Ding-Hui 《理论物理通讯》2006,46(1):113-118
We calculate the binding energies of Ni, Cu, Xe, Cs, Pt, Au, Np, Pu isotope chains using two interaction parameter sets NL-3 and NL-Z, and compared the relative errors of the even-even nuclei with those of odd-even nuclei and odd-odd nuclei. We find that the errors of binding energy of odd-even and odd-odd nuclei are not bigger than the one of even-even nuclei. The result shows that comparing with even-even nuclei, there is no systematic error and approximation in the calculations of the binding energy of odd-even and odd-odd nuclei with relativistic mean-field theory. In addition, the result is explained theoretically. 相似文献
109.
两种拔尿管方法对膀胱功能损伤的临床观察 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
为观察两种不同的拔尿管方法对膀胱功能损伤的差异,将80例患者随机分成两组,分别采用改良法(40例)和常规法(40例)拔除留置尿管,分析比较了两组患者排尿顺利率、逼尿肌功能恢复率及尿道刺激症、尿失禁、尿潴留。结果表明,两组患者拔管后上述指标与情况有显著性差异,P<0.05。提示改良组膀胱功能损伤明显低于对照组。改良的拔管方法是一种值得护理推广应用的好方法。 相似文献
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