OR and the challenge to improve the NHS: modelling for insight and improvement in in-patient flows

This paper considers efforts to improve in-patient flows, a particularly urgent issue in the National Health Service (NHS). The context is described and related to reasons why OR has been making relatively little contribution. The paper argues that large complex models may often be unnecessary and even get in the way of providing clear insight and guidance for problem owners. The importance of understanding the generic working of systems to lead to improvement, and the limitations of simply describing them, is stressed. It is demonstrated that some very simple models can be of significant practical value in understanding and managing complex systems, changing mindsets and driving collection and use of operationally valuable data. Recommendations for more effective engagement with the NHS are offered.     

Resource Search in Unstructured Peer-to-Peer System Based on Multiple-Tree Overlay Structure

We propose a multiple-tree overlay structure for resource discovery in unstructured P2P systems. Peers that have similar interests or hold similar type of resources will be grouped into a tree-like cluster. We exploit the heterogeneity of peers in each cluster by connecting peers with more capacities closer to the root of the tree. The capacity of a peer can be defined in different ways （e.g. higher network bandwidth, larger disk space, more data items of a certain type etc.） according to different needs of users or applications.     

多维测量结果不确定度评价方法初探

为解决以多维矢量形式存在被测对象的测量质量评定问题,该文应用测量不确定度理论和多元概率统计方法,将测量不确定度理论进行了向多维的拓展;对多维情况下的测量不确定度传播律进行了推导;论述了多维不确定度的表示方法及空间几何意义;提出了以多维不确定度比较不同测量结果质量的方法;并给出了常用多维测量方法,如等精度独立多维测量和不等精度独立多维测量的不确定度评定方法。理论分析及仿真算例表明,所提出的理论具有较完备的体系,能够满足测量实际中常用多维测量方法的不确定度评定需求。     

The Response of Debris-Flow Events to Solar Proton Flares （Ⅰ）

By analyzing the observation data from Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station and historical data from year 1965 to 1990 gotten from National Astronomical Ob-servatories/Yunnan Observatory,the responding of debris flow in Jiangjia Ravine to Solar Proton Flare is studied. The following conclusion can be drawn. Solar Proton Flare,as one of most im-portant astronomical factors,affects the activity of debris flow in Yunnan. Generally,from 1965 to1990,the more active Solar Pro-ton Flare is,the greater the probability of high frequency and large runoff of debris flow is. On the contrary,the less active Solar Pro-ton Flare is,the greater the probability of low frequency,small runoff,and low sediment transport of debris flow is.     

养殖池塘沉积物的重金属分布及污染特征

浙江省淅西北地区淡水养殖池塘沉积物重金属调查研究表明，养殖池塘沉积物中7种重金属元素分布不均衡，差异也较大，除Hg和Cr元素外，其余重金属元素已大大超过土壤本底值．虽然其实测含量都未超出国家规定的标准值范围，但沉积物中重金属元素对养殖水环境、养殖品种存在的潜在污染与危害值得关注．污染指数评价显示，养殖池塘沉积物中主要污染物质为Cu和Cr，而Hg、Pb污染程度相对较轻．     

Determination of ultra-trace gold in natural water by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry after in situ enrichment with thiol cotton fiber

A simple method of determining ultra-trace Au in natural water was presented by using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry (GFAAS) after in situ enrichment with thiol cotton fiber (TCF). The sample solution was adjusted to pH 1.5-2.0 with HCl, then the water sample was passed through a column packed with 0.10-0.20 g TCF and the flow rate was controlled at 20-40 ml min⁻¹. The effects of interferences, such as complexing and oxidizing agents and other elements adsorbed on TCF were overcome by chemical treatments prior to the desorption of Au. The adsorbed Au was adsorbed with 2.0 ml hot acid, then it was extracted with 1.00 ml methyl isobutylketone (MIBK). For a 5 l water sample, the detection limit of Au is 0.02 ng l⁻¹. The relative standard deviation (R.S.D.) for the determination of 1.44 ng l⁻¹ Au was 9.4%.The method was applied to determine ultra-trace Au both in suspended phase and soluble phase in natural water, the concentrations of total Au in natural water samples range from 0.51 to 67.82 ng l⁻¹. The recovery of added 0.50-6.00 ng l⁻¹ Au was 80-95%. The method is useful in prospecting for Au deposits by means of hydrogeochemical methods. The enrichment is carried out in the field, and then the determination of Au is completed later in the laboratory.     

Improved tabu search algorithm for the handling of route duration constraints in vehicle routing problems with time windows

This note introduces a refinement to a previously proposed tabu search algorithm for vehicle routing problems with time windows. This refinement yields new best known solutions on a set of benchmark instances of the multi-depot, the periodic and the site-dependent vehicle routing problems with time windows.     

Eigenvalue and stability of singular differential delay systems

The eigenvalue and the stability of singular differential systems with delay are considered. Firstly we investigate some properties of the eigenvalue, then give the exact exponential estimation for the fundamental solution, and finally discuss the necessary and sufficient condition of uniform asymptotic stability.