Improving forecasting performance by employing the Taguchi method

To satisfy the volatile nature of today’s markets, businesses require a significant reduction in product development lead times. Consequently, the ability to develop precise product sales forecasts is of fundamental importance to decision-makers. Over the years, many forecasting techniques of varying capabilities have been introduced. The precise extent of their influences, and the interactions between them, has never been fully clarified, although various forecasting factors have been explored in previous studies. Accordingly, this study adopts the Taguchi method to calibrate the controllable factors of a forecasting model. An L₉(3⁴) inner orthogonal array is constructed for the controllable factors of data period, horizon length, and number of observations required. An experimental design is then performed to establish the appropriate levels for each factor. At the same time, an L₄(2³) outer orthogonal array is used to consider the inherited parameters of forecasting method as the noise factors of Taguchi method simultaneously. An illustrated example, employing data from a power company, serves to demonstrate the thesis. The results show that the proposed model permits the construction of a highly efficient forecasting model through the suggested data collection method.     

Erds方程的全等解

本文运用初等方法给出了Erds方程的所有全等解.     

铝电解过程控制信号的滤波与噪声解析模型的研究

将快速傅里叶变换技术和数字滤波器设计技术应用于铝电解过程控制信号的滤波与噪声解析模型中,在160kA中间点式下料预焙槽上的试验结果表明了模型的有效性。     

对两种估计单属性关系大小方法的可信度讨论

估计两个单属性关系在连接属性上取相同值的个数的方法有两种:静态估计法和动态估计法.本文利用不精确性推理模型对这两种方法的可信度定量地进行讨论,并用具体例子进行说明.     

我国跨国经营的发展构想

本文在系统阐述当代跨国经营战略调整与发展趋势的基础上，简要剖析了现阶段我国企业跨国经营的主要问题，重点探讨了我国跨国企业发展战略的基本构想。     

On the decomposition of Kn into complete m-partite graphs

Graham and Pollak [3] proved that n ?1 is the minimum number of edge-disjoint complete bipartite subgraphs into which the edges of K_n can be decomposed. Using a linear algebraic technique, Tverberg [2] gives a different proof of that result. We apply his technique to show that for “almost all n,” ? (n + m ?3)/(m ?1) ? is the minimum number of edge-disjoint complete m-partite subgraphs in a decomposition of K_n.     

Dependence of slow crack growth in polyethylene on butyl branch density: Morphology and theory

A theoretical equation has been developed to described the rate of slow crack growth in an ethylene-hexene copolymer in terms of the basic morphological parameters. These parameters are spacing of the butyl branches, number of tie molecules, and the thickness of the lamellar crystal. Experimentally, the thickness of the lamellae and the long period were determined as functions of the branch density. The calculation of the number of tie molecules is based on the values of the molecular weight and the long period. The model of slow crack growth is based on the rate of disentanglement of the tie molecules. The rate of disentanglement varies inversely with the number of tie molecules and directly with the number of tie molecules that are not pinned by the branches.     

矿石可选性预测专家系统(Ⅰ)─—系统的总体设计

建立了铅锌矿石可造性预测专家系统，运行结果良好。本篇着重论述矿石可造性领域知识的特点和知识表示方法；分析矿石可造性预测专家系统的主要特征；讨论矿石可造性预测子问题的划分、一般决策过程、推理控制策略以及系统的总体设计。     

牙齿化石中由辐照产生的陷阱电子的热稳定性研究

本文对周口店北京猿人遗址的动物牙齿化石进行了辐照产生的陷阱捕获电子的热稳定性研究和釉质样品及牙质样品的热稳定性对比实验。得到釉质样品中g=2.0016 ESR峰的寿命为7.1×10⁶年(20℃)。说明了取该峰进行ESR年代测定的可信性和用釉质样品进行ESR年代测定的必要性。     

高新技术开发区网络管理系统的设计

根据高新技术产业开发区的特点，提出了一系列有针对性的软、硬件设计。