Error analysis: a tool for selecting travel demand models

In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection.     

祁连山东段冲积扇的发育时代及其成因

第四纪期间祁连山东段山麓地带广泛发育了多级冲积扇,它们是研究区域构造抬升与气候变化最为直接的载体.本文主要通过ESR,IRSL以及14C等绝对测年手段对该区冲积扇的形成年代进行研究,结果表明祁连山东段北麓最高级冲积扇形成于0.85 MaBP,而毛毛山南麓的最高级冲积扇形成于0.43 MaBP.随后各地又相继发育了0.25,0.16,0.06,0.01 MaBP等多级冲洪积台地.根据主要冲积扇的形成年代及其与区域构造气候事件的对比,认为它们是构造运动与气候变化共同作用的产物.     

理想气体在热力学中的作用

指出热力学理论是普遍的,不依赖于理想气体.理想气体为热力学理论提供了一个简单的实例,为测量热力学温度提供了一种简单的温度计.     

A comparative study of the structure and crystallization of bulk metallic amorphous rod Pr60Ni30Al10 and melt-spun metallic amorphous ribbon Al87Ni10Pr3

Pr-based bulk metallic amorphous （BMA） rods （Pr60Ni30Al10） and Al-based amorphous ribbons （Al87Ni10Pr3） have been prepared by using copper mould casting and single roller melt-spun techniques, respectively. Thermal parameters deduced from differential scanning calorimeter （DSC） indicate that the glass-forming ability （GFA） of Pr60Ni30Al10 BMA rod is far higher than that of Al87Ni10Pr3 ribbon. A comparative study about the differences in structure between the two kinds of glass-forming alloys, superheated viscosity and crystallization are also made. Compared with the amorphous alloy Al87Ni10Pr3, the BMA alloy Pr60Ni30Al10 shows high thermal stability and large viscosity, small diffusivity at the same superheated temperatures. The results of x-Ray diffraction （XRD） and transmission electron microscope （TEM） show the pronounced difference in structure between the two amorphous alloys. Together with crystallization results, the main structure compositions of the amorphous samples are confirmed. It seems that the higher the GFA, the more topological type clusters in the Pr-Ni-Al amorphous alloys, the GFAs of the present glass-forming alloys are closely related to their structures.     

SEPARATING SCN~- FROM DESULPHURIZATION WASTE SOLUTION OF COCKING PLANT BY D241 RESIN

1. INTRODUCTION In the process of coking plant, about 30%~35% sulfur is transformed to H2S and some other sulfide, which form impurity in coal gas together with NH3 and HCN. Only 0.1% H2S containing in air can lead to die, so it is very important to carry on desulphurization and decyanation with coal gas [1~3]. Currently desulphurization and decyanation craft technique have Dry Oxidation Technology, Wet Oxidation Technology and Liquid Absorption Technology [2] three main kinds. The…     

推广x重新标度模型的重标度参数经验公式

给出了推广x重新标度模型的重标度参数经验公式,其中建立了重标度参数与原子核的平均结合能之间的联系,由该公式可以得出A≥12的所有核的重标度参数值,利用这些参数值可以计算有关核过程并做出预言.     

空心阴极灯激发的微波等离子体炬原子/离子荧光光谱研究--钙的原子/离子荧光光谱

用强短脉冲供电技术的空心阴极灯作激发源、微波等离子体炬作原子／离子化器，建立了原子／离子荧光光谱实验装置。详细研究了微波等离子体功率、观察高度、空心阴极灯电流等因素对原子／离子荧光信号强度的影响，测量了系统对Ca的原子／离子荧光光谱的检出限。     

变系数非线性方程的Jacobi椭圆函数展开解

把Jacobi椭圆函数展开法扩展并应用到求解变系数的非线性演化方程,比较方便地得到新的解析解 关键词： Jacobi椭圆函数 变系数非线性方程 类椭圆余弦波解 类孤子解     

溴酸钾-亚甲蓝催化光度法测定硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐

用镉柱将NO-3 还原为NO-2 ,利用在磷酸介质中NO-2 对溴酸钾氧化亚甲蓝这一褪色反应具有强烈的催化作用而建立了同时测定痕量硝酸盐和亚硝酸盐的新方法。本方法简便、快速、灵敏 ,对亚硝酸盐和硝酸盐测定的线性范围分别为 0～ 2 0 0 μg·L-1和 0 0 0 3～ 310 μg·L-1,用于测定各种水样中痕量NO-2 和NO-3 的含量均获得满意结果     

静态球对称黑洞Dirac场的统计熵

利用改进的brickwall模型,给出了一类静态球对称黑洞Dirac场的熵,结果表明,在取相同的截断因子时,Dirac场的熵均为标量场的熵的72倍 关键词： 黑洞 统计熵 brickwall模型 Dirac场