When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

Indirect Oxidation of Organic Substances by Intermediates of the Oxygen Reduction

Results of two urgent and practically important directions of research on the indirect oxidation of organic compounds by highly reactive intermediates generated electrochemically from oxygen (HO₂ ^–, HO₂ ^·, HO^·) are considered and orderly arranged. The studies in question are the indirect synthesis and mineralization of organic toxicants in waste water.     

Thermal conductivity of crystalline chrysotile asbestos

The thermal conductivity of crystalline chrysotile asbestos made up of hollow tubular Mg₃Si₂O₅(OH)₄ filaments is measured in the range 5–300 K. The paper discusses the possibility of using this material in studies of the thermal conductivity of thin filaments of metals and semiconductors incorporated into the channels of crystalline chrysotile asbestos tubes.     

NMR Detection of Phase Transition in a ZSM-5 Silicalite Caused by the Adsorbed Hexane and Decane Molecules

Times of longitudinal T _1b and transverse T _2b magnetic relaxation of hexane and decane molecules in micropores of ZSM-5 silicalite were measured as functions of the content of these liquid n-alkanes in zeolite and of temperature. The stepwise changes in the T _1b and T _2b times were revealed in the region of 8% content of hydrocarbons. The observed changes in the concentration and temperature dependences of T _1b and T _2b times are explained by the rearrangement of silicalite crystal lattice under the action of adsorbed molecules.     

Crystallization and morphology of poly(vinylidene fluoride)/poly(3‐hydroxybutyrate) blends. I. Spherulitic morphology and growth by polarized microscopy

The development of the poly(3‐hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) morphology in the presence of already existent poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) spherulites was studied by two‐stage solidification with two separate crystallization temperatures. PVDF formed irregular dendrites at lower temperatures and regular, banded spherulites at elevated temperatures. The transition temperature of the spherulitic morphology from dendrites to regular, banded spherulites increased with increasing PVDF content. A remarkable amount of PHB was included in the PVDF dendrites, whereas PHB was rejected into the remaining melt from the banded spherulites. When PVDF crystallized as banded spherulites, PHB could consequently crystallize only around them, if at all. In contrast, PHB crystallized with a common growth front, starting from a defined site in the interfibrillar regions of volume‐filling PVDF dendrites. It formed by itself dendritic spherulites that included a large number of PVDF spherulites. For blends with a PHB content of more than 80 wt %, for which the PVDF dendrites were not volume‐filling, PHB first formed regular spherulites. Their growth started from outside the PVDF dendrites but could later interpenetrate them, and this made their own morphology dendritic. These PHB spherulites melted stepwise because the lamellae inside the PVDF dendrites melted at a lower temperature than those from outside. This reflected the regularity of the two fractions of the lamellae because that of those inside the dendrites of PVDF was controlled by the intraspherulitic order of PVDF, whereas that from outside was only controlled by the temperature and the melt composition. The described morphologies developed without mutual nucleating efficiency of the components. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 41: 873–882, 2003     

Mechanisms of rectification of a high-frequency signal by a field-effect heterotransistor with a short channel

The effect of nonlinearity of the drift velocity of free charge carriers and the gradient-and concentration-related nonlinearities in the power-voltage sensitivity of a field-effect transistor with a short channel are studied theoretically. Theoretical results are compared with experimental data on the detection of terahertz radiation. It follows from the comparison that, in order to gain deeper insight into observed systematic features in the analysis of high-frequency characteristics of the transistor, one has to take into account some other mechanisms of the current nonlinearity, in addition to the plasma-related nonlinearity.     

Investigation into Polarization of Unloaded and Loaded Microstrip Square-Ring Antennas

The polarization characteristic of unloaded and loaded square-ring microstrip antennas is investigated. Several different loading types like single-stub, dual-stub, notch, gap and shorting-pin are considered and their effects are studied. Loading enables feeding using a 50-Omega probe. The simulation and measurement results show that the loading techniques excite a loaded TMy ₁₁ mode that is orthogonal to the unloaded TMx ₁₁ mode. This indicates that by loading the ring antenna its polarization can be switched adaptively. However, the purity of the loaded and unloaded modes depends on the loading type. For some loading types like gap and shorting-pin, the excitation of the unloaded mode seems negligible, in comparison to the loadings by stub and notch. For the stub and notch loaded antennas the unloaded mode is also present, and its excitation efficiency is frequency dependent. Thus, their polarization plane, which is due to both loaded TMy ₁₁ and unloaded TMx ₁₁ modes, also becomes frequency dependant. The results of this investigation can be useful in selecting the loading methods for high-impedance microstrip ring antennas, and control of their impedance and polarization. The knowledge of the antenna polarization is essential in communications, and its dependence on the loading type can be used as an important parameter in design of adaptive antennas and sensors.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Mathematical modelling of the oxidation of nickel titanium alloys

A one-dimensional bulk reaction model for the oxidation of nickeltitanium is formulated, with preferential oxidation of titaniumbeing included. The modelling is directed at the better understandingof the dominant mechanisms involved in the oxidation processand their significance for the biocompatibility of the alloy.Two different regimes for the relative diffusivities of oxygenand the metals are investigated. By assuming fast bulk reactions,different asymptotic structures emerge in different parameterregimes and the resulting models take the form of moving boundaryproblems. Different profiles of nickel concentration are obtained:in particular a nickel-rich layer (observed in practice) ispresent below the oxide/metal interface for the case when oxygenand the metals diffuse at comparable rates.