Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

Ag+掺杂的立方相Y2O3:Eu纳米晶体粉末发光强度研究

采用化学自燃烧法制备了不同Ag⁺掺杂浓度的Y₂O₃:Eu纳米晶体粉末样品(［Y³⁺］∶［Eu³⁺］∶［Ag⁺］=99∶1∶X，X=0—3.5×10^-2)，以及通过退火处理得到了相应的体材料.根据X射线衍射谱确定所得纳米和体材料样品均为纯立方相.实验表明在纳米尺寸样品中随着Ag离子浓度的增加，荧光发射强度随之增加，当X=2×10^-2时达到最大值，其发光强度比X=0时提高了近50%.当Ag离子浓度继续增加，样品发光强度保持不变.在相应的体材料样品中则没有观察到此现象.通过对各样品的发射光谱，激发光谱，X射线衍射图谱，透射电镜(TEM)照片和荧光衰减曲线的研究，分析了引起纳米样品荧光强度变化的原因是由于Ag离子与表面悬键氧结合，从而使这一无辐射通道阻断，使发光中心Eu³⁺的量子效率提高；Ag⁺的引入所带来的另一个效应是使激发更为有效.这两方面原因使发光效率得到了提高.     

Ni(111)表面一氧化碳和氢共吸附的密度泛函理论研究

本文用密度泛函理论(DFT)的总能计算研究了一氧化碳和氢原子在Ni(111)表面上p(2×2)共吸附系统的原子结构和电子态，结果表明CO和H原子分别被吸附于两个对角p(1×1)元胞的hcp和fcc位置.以氢分子和CO分子作为能量参考点，总吸附能为2.81 eV，相应的共吸附表面功函数φ为6.28 eV.计算得到的C—O，C—Ni和H—Ni的键长分别是1.19?, 1.96?和 1.71?，并且CO分子以C原子处于hcp的谷位与金属衬底原子结合.衬底Ni(111)的最外两层的晶面间距在吸附后的相对变化分别是 关键词： Fisher-Tropsch反应 催化作用 Ni(111) p(2×2)/(CO+H) 共吸附     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

Focusing and diffraction by an optical lens and a small circular aperture

Based on the vectorial Rayleigh–Sommerfeld diffraction integrals, analytical expressions for the transversal and axial field distribution of plane waves propagating through a thin lens followed by a small circular aperture are derived and used to study the focusing and diffraction properties of plane waves. Some special cases of our general result are discussed, and illustrative numerical calculation results are given. It is found that the vectorial nonparaxial approach should be applied if the aperture dimension is comparable with the wavelength or the focusing is strong.     

DS1620实现的X射线采集板温度自动控制

DR是目前非常先进的X射线成像技术，将其X射线采集板工作温度控制在最佳工作范围可采集更好的图像。本系统采用PC和单独控制双模块分别控制温度，利用半导体传感器DS1620进行四路温度采集，通过单片机和PC串口通信，用PC通过半导体制冷芯片来控制X射线采集板的工作温度，在通信故障时也可以通过单独控制模块来控制采集板的温度。