Network traffic prediction based on a new time series model

Fast and accurate methods for predicting traffic properties and trend are essential for dynamic network resource management and congestion control. With the aim of performing online and feasible prediction of network traffic, this paper proposes a novel time series model, named adaptive autoregressive (AAR). This model is built upon an adaptive memory‐shortening technique and an adaptive‐order selection method originally developed by this study. Compared to the conventional one‐step ahead prediction using traditional Box–Jenkins time series models (e.g. AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and ARFIMA), performance results obtained from actual Internet traffic traces have demonstrated that the proposed AAR model is able to support online prediction of dynamic network traffic with reasonable accuracy and relatively low computation complexity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

三种群食物链交错扩散模型的整体

本文应用能量估计方法和Gagliardo-Nirenberg型不等式证明了一类强耦合反应扩散系统整体解的存在性和一致有界性，该系统是带自扩散和交错扩散项的三种群Lotka-Volterra食物链模型．通过构造Lyapunov函数给出了该模型正平衡点全局渐近稳定的充分条件．     

Mobility Influences on the Capacity of Wireless Cellular Networks

Capacity has always been a major concern in wireless networks. This letter studies the impact of mobility on the overall system capacity in wireless cellular networks. In this letter, we present a simple system model which we developed to capture the inherent relationships among system capacity, new call blocking probability, handoff dropping probability, call terminating probability, and bandwidth utilization rate. We investigate the complex relationship between mobility and capacity‐related parameters. Through simulation, we demonstrate that mobility has a significant impact on capacity and is reversely proportional to the bandwidth reserved for handoff traffic.     

Total Dose Radiation Tolerance of Phase Change Memory Cell with GeSbTe Alloy

Phase change memory （PCM） cell array is fabricated by a standard complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor process and the subsequent special fabrication technique. A chalcogenide Ge2Sb2Te5 film in thickness 50hm deposited by rf magnetron sputtering is used as storage medium for the PCM cell. Large snap-back effect is observed in current-voltage characteristics, indicating the phase transition from an amorphous state （higher resistance state） to the crystalline state （lower resistance state）. The resistance of amorphous state is two orders of magnitude larger than that of the crystalline state from the resistance measurement, and the threshold current needed for phase transition of our fabricated PCM cell array is very low （only several μA）. An x-ray total dose radiation test is carried out on the PCM cell array and the results show that this kind of PCM cell has excellent total dose radiation tolerance with total dose up to 2 ×10^6 rad（Si）, which makes it attractive for space-based applications.     

模式评价理论模型及其应用

基于事前评价过程和自然界生物进化过程的相似性，提出了系统结构、系统结构模式和系统环境模式矩阵的概念，并根据系统结构、系统结构模式与系统环境模式矩阵的适应程度，建立了模式评价决策模型，制定了评价系统的评价分类准则，并对评价系统作了一定的理论分析．将此模型和方法应用于城市生态安全评价中，通过与模糊综合评价法的比较，表明了该评价模型和方法的优越性．     

膨胀的热夸克胶子物质的中等质量双轻子的增强

基于一个描述夸克胶子火柱演化的相对论流体力学模型,研究了夸克相、强子相互作用以及非热过程(DrellYan对、粲强子衰变)的中等质量双轻子的产生.发现由于相边对夸克胶子物质演化的影响和RHIC能量核碰撞产生的夸克胶子物质具有高的初始温度,夸克相对双轻子的贡献显著增强,比那些来自强子相互作用的贡献重要,甚至能与来自非热的贡献比较.表明中等质量双轻子的增强是一个在核碰撞中产生了夸克胶子物质的可能信号. 关键词： 夸克-胶子物质 双轻子增强 相对论流体力学模型     

形式化语言在UMTS开发中的应用

由于3G协议规范的复杂性，3GPP方法论指导方针中鼓励使用标准的形式化语言来进行UMTS产品的设计、开发与测试。文中概要性地描述了UMTS的体系结构和在规范描述中用到的一些形式化语言的基本概念和特点，探讨了这些形式化语言在UMTS开发中的应用。使用形式化语言开发UMTS可以简化和改进测试程序，实现新产品与新标准的同步推出。     

Temperature dependence of interband transition energy in InGaAsN strain-compensated quantum-well and ridge-waveguide lasers fabricated with pulsed anodic oxidation

Ridge-waveguide InGaAsN triple-quantum-well strain-compensated lasers grown by metal organic chemical vapor deposition were fabricated with pulsed anodic oxidation. The laser’s output power reached 145 mW in continuous-wave mode at room temperature for a 4-?m -stripe-width laser. Continuous-wave single longitudinal mode operation was maintained at a high injection current level with a wavelength of 1287.3 nm at room temperature. Single longitudinal mode operation at 1317.2 nm was achieved at twice the threshold current at 100 °C. The band gap of InGaAsN in the quantum wells at different temperatures was calculated and compared to the measured temperature-dependent laser wavelength.     

Engineering issue study of triple harmonic method for in situ flying height analysis

In situ flying height testing technology is becoming more and more important in slider–disk interaction analysis and manufacturing quality control of disk drives and head-related components. Triple harmonic method is a quite promising choice for in situ flying height analysis, compared with other in situ methods reported up to now. This paper reports results of investigations on engineering issues of applying triple harmonic method for in situ flying height analysis. The paper reports results of analysis on the effects of various testing conditions on flying height testing repeatability and accuracy. Results suggest that working at reasonable high channel density and working on the ratio between third and first harmonics will be an advantage in terms of both flying height testing sensitivity and testing repeatability. Comparing with media thickness effect, the gap-length variation among different heads will be important if it is to study flying height difference among different heads and the testing is at high channel density. Also, it is suggested to work at AC erased track, in order to reduce the non-linearity caused by hard transition.     

新型金属杂冠醚配合物18-MC-6[Mn6(4-Amashz)6(DMF)6]·12DMF的合成

合成了一种新型金属杂冠醚配合物[Mn6(4-amashz)6(DMF)6]·12DMF,并用X射线衍射法对其结构进行了表征.研究了该化合物修饰金电极催化氧还原的性质,结果表明,该化合物具有平面碟状结构,对在碱性溶液中的氧有显著的催化还原作用.