Error analysis: a tool for selecting travel demand models

In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection.     

THE QUALITATIVE CONTENT OF RENEWABLE RESOURCE MODELS

This paper analyzes the extent to which standard dynamic renewable resource models possess refutable implications. Both the steady state comparative static and local comparative dynamic properties of the standard model are studied. A unified framework is developed which enables one to analyze the qualitative properties of any standard renewable resource model. This is achieved by explicitly linking the local stability, steady state comparative static, and local comparative dynamic properties of the model.     

Gluon jets from quarkonia

A detailed analysis is made within perturbative QCD of the decays into gluon jets of P-wave and S-wave quarkonia (J^PC = 0⁺⁺, 1⁺⁺, 2⁺⁺, 1^+? and 0^?+, 1^??). For all those states we compute to leading non-trivial order in α_s the conventional fraction f(?, δ) of the jet-like hadronic final states, characterized by the back-to-back cone of half angle δ, in which all but a small fraction ? of the total energy is emitted. To the same order we give also the average values of thrust momenta and spherocity distributions.     

Three ways to implement interfacial techniques: application tomeasurements of chromatic dispersion, birefringence, and nonlinearsusceptibilities

Depending on the spectal width of the source illuminating an interferometer, measurement procedures can utilize either the whole interferogram, or only the fringe envelope, or only the fringe quick oscillations. With an ultraband spectrum source, a simplified adaptation of the methods of Fourier transform spectroscopy yields the variations of the test-fiber propagation constant over the whole wavelength-interval of the source. Chromatic dispersion can then be computed from a single interferogram. With narrower spectrum sources, only the fringe envelopes are utilized and yield measurements of mode delay, with application to chromatic and polarization mode dispersion. In this case, however, interferograms at several wavelengths are necessary. With even narrower spectrum sources, the fringe quick oscillations provide measurements of phase shifts, related to changes in the mode propagation constant, when outside perturbations are applied to the test fiber. A direct method for measuring the third-order nonlinear susceptibilities is discussed. In this case the outside perturbation is an intense pump laser field     

Continuous phase quadrature phase shift keyed signaling techniquewith coding

A continuous phase quadrature phase shift keyed (CPQPSK) modulation technique is presented. This method utilizes a conventional QPSK modulator and a phase trajectory converter to approximate M=4, h=1/4 continuous phase signal and allows low cost, low complexity, and high rate (>1 Gbit/s) CPM modem implementation for bandwidth efficient transmission through nonlinear satellite channels. Using a communications analysis computer program it has been found that CPQPSK has 99 percent out-of-band power of 0.8R (MSK has 99 percent out-of-band power of 1.2 R where R is defined as bit rate), continuous phase trajectories, and nearly constant envelope amplitude. Simulation of realistic hardware designs indicate that the CPQPSK will require an Eb/No of 14 dB to achieve a bit error rate (BER) of 10^-6. Forward error correcting techniques using block codes with an overhead of 10 percent indicate that the Eb/No requirements can be reduced to 11.2 dB for 10^-6 BER     

A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

Performance and modeling of advanced Ti:LiNbO3 digitaloptical switches

High-performance Y-branch digital optical switches realized in Ti:LiNbO₃ are presented. Their switching response functions have been optimized in terms of switch voltage and crosstalk ratio. The optimization is based on analyzing different types of waveguide shaping and switching arrangements using coupled mode theory and computer simulations. Excellent switching characteristics are achieved with devices exploiting a specially shaped waveguide branch in a dilated switch arrangement. Demonstrated performances include switching voltage as low as 9 V with crosstalk suppression better than 45 dB and fiber-to-fiber losses as low as 4 dB. Polarization independence with crosstalk suppression better than 40 dB over a 1520- to 1570-nm wavelength range is achieved for any applied switch voltage greater than 18 V. These optimized digital optical switches have further demonstrated the capability to reshape electrical input signals at switching rates of several hundred megahertz     

Miscibility of bisphenol-A polycarbonate with poly(methyl methacrylate)

The miscibility of bisphenol-A polycarbonate (PC) with poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) has been reexamined using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and optical indications for phase separation on heating, i.e., lower critical solution temperature (LCST) behavior. Various methods have been used to prepare the blends including methylene chloride (CH₂Cl₂) and tetrahydrofuran (THF) solution casting, melt mixing, and precipitation of PC and PMMA simultaneously from THF solution by using the nonsolvents methanol and heptane. It is shown that the resulting phase behavior for PC/PMMA blends is strongly affected by the blend preparation method. However, these blends are miscible over the whole blend composition range (unambiguous single composition-dependent T_g's and LCST behavior) when prepared by precipitation from solution using heptane as the nonsolvent. To the contrary, solution-cast and melt-mixed PC/PMMA blends were all phase separated, which may be attributed to the “solvent” effect and LCST behavior, respectively, not discovered in previous reports. Methanol precipitation does not lead to fully mixed blends, which demonstrates the importance of the choice of nonsolvent when using the precipitation method.