Multivariate dynamic modeling for Bayesian forecasting of business revenue

Forecasting enterprise-wide revenue is critical to many companies and presents several challenges and opportunities for significant business impact. This case study is based on model developments to address these challenges for forecasting in a large-scale retail company. Focused on multivariate revenue forecasting across collections of supermarkets and product categories, hierarchical dynamic models are natural: these are able to couple revenue streams in an integrated forecasting model, while allowing conditional decoupling to enable relevant and sensitive analysis together with scalable computation. Structured models exploit multi-scale modeling to cascade information on price and promotion activities as predictors relevant across categories and groups of stores. With a context-relevant focus on forecasting revenue 12 weeks ahead, the study highlights product categories that benefit from multi-scale information, defines insights into when, how, and why multivariate models improve forecast accuracy, and shows how cross-category dependencies can relate to promotion decisions in one category impacting others. Bayesian modeling developments underlying the case study are accessible in custom code for interested readers.     

A fluidic load cell

A fluidic load cell, based on the fluidic strain-gage concept, was designed, built and tested. The load cell, which employs air as the fluid, can be used to measure forces in electromagnetic fields and high-temperature environments where conventional resistance-strain-gage load cells fail. The load cell built in this survey was tested to 10,000 lb (44.48 kN) in compression. At 10,000-lb compression load, a fluidic pressure change of 425×10^?6 psi (2.93 Pa) was measured. The sensitivity of the system was about 5 percent of the full-scale load and the pressure-load curve was linear. Load cells can be designed for both tension and compression loading and with improvements can be designed to a sensitivity of 1 percent full scale.     

Friction factor and holdup studies for lubricated pipelining—I. Experiments and correlations

Results from new experiments on the lubricated pipelining of emulsified waxy crude oil and No. 6 fuel oil are presented and compared with other sources of literature. A correlation formula which estimates the holdup fraction is introduced and evaluated for all available experimental data. A simple theory is given which is based on the concentric core-annular flow model and leads to a Reynolds number and friction factor which reduce a large body of experimental data onto one curve; with the best results in the high Reynolds number flow regime.     

On a bound for deformations in terms of Strains in an elastic cylinder

Consider a long thin isotropic elastic cylinder with a self-equilibrated loading on each end face, but which is stress-free on the sides and which has no internal body forces. It is shown that if the displacement gradient is pointwise sufficiently small, then, in any subcylinder of length 1/4a, it is possible to add a rigid body motion such that the L ₂ norm of the resulting displacement gradient can be bounded by a constant times the L ₂ norm of the strain in a subcyclinder of length 2a centered at the same point. The parameter a depends upon the pointwise bound for the displacement gradient (the smaller the bound, the larger a can be) and the constant is independent of the length thickness ratio of the subcylinder.     

Generalized Maxwell model for the viscoelastic behavior of a soda-lime-silica glass under low frequency shear loading

The linear viscoelastic behavior of a soda-lime-silica glass under low frequency shear loading is investigated in the glass transition range. Using the time-temperature superposition technique, the master curves of the shear dynamic relaxation moduli are obtained at a reference temperature of 566°C. A method to determine the viscoelastic constants from dynamic relaxation moduli is proposed. However, some viscoelastic constants cannot be directly measured from the experimental curves and others cannot be precisely obtained due to non-linearity effects at very low frequencies. The generalized Maxwell model is investigated from the experimental dynamic moduli without fixing the viscoelastic constants. A set of parameters is shown to be in good agreement with the experimental dynamic relaxation moduli, but does not give the correct values of the viscoelastic constants of the investigated glass. The soda-lime-silica glass exhibits a non-linear viscoelastic behavior at very low stress level which is usually observed for organic glasses. This non-linear behavior is questioned.     

Cooperative Bond Activation and Catalytic Reduction of Carbon Dioxide at a Group 13 Metal Center

A single‐component ambiphilic system capable of the cooperative activation of protic, hydridic and apolar H? X bonds across a Group 13 metal/activated β‐diketiminato (Nacnac) ligand framework is reported. The hydride complex derived from the activation of H₂ is shown to be a competent catalyst for the highly selective reduction of CO₂ to a methanol derivative. To our knowledge, this process represents the first example of a reduction process of this type catalyzed by a molecular gallium complex.     

Micromotor‐Based Energy Generation

A micromotor‐based strategy for energy generation, utilizing the conversion of liquid‐phase hydrogen to usable hydrogen gas (H₂), is described. The new motion‐based H₂‐generation concept relies on the movement of Pt‐black/Ti Janus microparticle motors in a solution of sodium borohydride (NaBH₄) fuel. This is the first report of using NaBH₄ for powering micromotors. The autonomous motion of these catalytic micromotors, as well as their bubble generation, leads to enhanced mixing and transport of NaBH₄ towards the Pt‐black catalytic surface (compared to static microparticles or films), and hence to a substantially faster rate of H₂ production. The practical utility of these micromotors is illustrated by powering a hydrogen–oxygen fuel cell car by an on‐board motion‐based hydrogen and oxygen generation. The new micromotor approach paves the way for the development of efficient on‐site energy generation for powering external devices or meeting growing demands on the energy grid.     

Selective Photooxidation of a Mustard‐Gas Simulant Catalyzed by a Porphyrinic Metal–Organic Framework

The photooxidation of a mustard‐gas simulant, 2‐chloroethyl ethyl sulfide (CEES), is studied using a porphyrin‐based metal–organic framework (MOF) catalyst. At room temperature and neutral pH value, singlet oxygen is generated by PCN‐222/MOF‐545 using an inexpensive and commercially available light‐emitting diode. The singlet oxygen produced by PCN‐222/MOF‐545 selectively oxidizes CEES to the comparatively nontoxic product 2‐chloroethyl ethyl sulfoxide (CEESO) without formation of the highly toxic sulfone product. In comparison to current methods, which utilize hydrogen peroxide as an oxidizing agent, this is a more realistic, convenient, and effective method for mustard‐gas detoxification.     

Surface‐Specific Functionalization of Nanoscale Metal–Organic Frameworks

A method for modifying the external surfaces of a series of nanoscale metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) with 1,2‐dioleoyl‐sn‐glycero‐3‐phosphate (DOPA) is presented. A series of zirconium‐based nanoMOFs of the same topology (UiO‐66, UiO‐67, and BUT‐30) were synthesized, isolated as aggregates, and then conjugated with DOPA to create stably dispersed colloids. BET surface area analysis revealed that these structures maintain their porosity after surface functionalization, providing evidence that DOPA functionalization only occurs on the external surface. Additionally, dye‐labeled ligand loading studies revealed that the density of DOPA on the surface of the nanoscale MOF correlates to the density of metal nodes on the surface of each MOF. Importantly, the surface modification strategy described will allow for the general and divergent synthesis and study of a wide variety of nanoscale MOFs as stable colloidal materials.     

A critique on the structural analysis of lignins and application of novel tandem mass spectrometric strategies to determine lignin sequencing

This review is devoted to the application of MS using soft ionization methods with a special emphasis on electrospray ionization, atmospheric pressure photoionization and matrix‐assisted laser desorption/ionization MS and tandem MS (MS/MS) for the elucidation of the chemical structure of native and modified lignins. We describe and critically evaluate how these soft ionization methods have contributed to the present‐day knowledge of the structure of lignins. Herein, we will introduce new nomenclature concerning the chemical state of lignins, namely, virgin released lignins (VRLs) and processed modified lignins (PML). VRLs are obtained by liberation of lignins through degradation of vegetable matter by either chemical hydrolysis and/or enzymatic hydrolysis. PMLs are produced by subjecting the VRL to a series of further chemical transformations and purifications that are likely to alter their original chemical structures. We are proposing that native lignin polymers, present in the lignocellulosic biomass, are not made of macromolecules linked to cellulose fibres as has been frequently reported. Instead, we propose that the lignins are composed of vast series of linear related oligomers, having different lengths that are covalently linked in a criss‐cross pattern to cellulose and hemicellulose fibres forming the network of vegetal matter. Consequently, structural elucidation of VRLs, which presumably have not been purified and processed by any other type of additional chemical treatment and purification, may reflect the structure of the native lignin. In this review, we present an introduction to a MS/MS top–down concept of lignin sequencing and how this technique may be used to address the challenge of characterizing the structure of VRLs. Finally, we offer the case that although lignins have been reported to have very high or high molecular weights, they might not exist on the basis that such polymers have never been identified by the mild ionizing techniques used in modern MS. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.