Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Exploiting the diversity of time scales in the immune system: A B-cell antibody model

Using the continuous shape space formalism, we develop an immune system model involving both B lymphocytes and antibody molecules. The binding and cross-linking of receptors on B cells stimulates the cells to divide and, with a lag, to secrete antibody. Using the method of multiple scales, we show how to correctly formulate long-time-scale equations for the population dynamics of B cells, the total antibody concentration, and rate of antibody secretion. We compare our model with previous phenomenological formulations.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

Linewidth and FM characteristics of a distributed feedback laser monolithically integrated with a tunable external cavity

A narrow linewidth has been obtained in a new 1.5 ?m distributed feedback laser integrated monolithically with a tunable external cavity. The linewidth of 18 MHz has been achieved by tuning the current in the external cavity, and the FM response was flat from 100 kHz to 500 MHz.     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

Performance engineering and topological design of metro WDM opticalnetworks using computer simulation

This paper demonstrates the use of computer simulation for topological design and performance engineering of transparent wavelength-division multiplexing metropolitan-area networks. Engineering of these networks involves the study of various transport-layer impairments such as amplifier noise, component ripple, chirp/dispersion, optical crosstalk, waveform distortion due to filter concatenation, fiber nonlinearities, and polarization effects. A computer simulation methodology composed of three main simulation steps is derived and implemented. This methodology obtains performance estimations by applying efficient wavelength-domain simulations on the entire network topology, followed by time-/frequency-domain simulations on selected paths of the network and finally Q-budgeting on an identified worst case path. The above technique provides an efficient tool for topological design and network performance engineering. Accurate simulation models are presented for each of the performance impairments, and the computer simulation methodology is used for the design and engineering of a number of actual metro network architectures     

Electrical and growth characteristics of Au/Al0.15Ga0.85N:Si structures with various Si incorporations

We have investigated the growth characteristics of n-Al_0.15Ga_0.85N:Si/GaN and the electronic properties of Au/n-Al_0.15Ga_0.85N:Si diode structures grown by metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) with various Si incorporations. The Al_0.15Ga_0.85N:Si layers were grown on undoped GaN/sapphire (0001) epitaxial layers in a horizontal MOCVD reactor at the reduced pressure of 300 torr. The mirrorlike surface, free of defects, such as cracks or hillocks, can be seen in the undoped Al_0.15Ga_0.85N epilayer, which was grown without any intentional flow of SiH₄. However, many cracks are observed in the n-Al_0.15Ga_0.85N:Si, which was grown with Si incorporation above 1.0 nmol/min. While Au/n-Al_0.15Ga_0.85N:Si diodes having low incorporation of Si showed retively good rectifying behavior, the samples having high Si incorporation exhibited leaky current-voltage (I-V) behavior. Particularly, the Au/n-Al_0.15Ga_0.85N:Si structure grown with Si incorporation above 1.0 nmol/min cannot be used for electrical rectification. Both added tunneling components and thermionic emission influence the current transport at the Au/n-Al_0.15Ga_0.85N:Si barrier when Si incorporation becomes higher.