A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective. 相似文献
The solar wind almost disappeared on May 11, 1999: the solar wind plasma density and dynamic pressure were less than 1cm−3 and 0.1 nPa respectively, while the interplanetary magnetic field was northward. The polar ionospheric data observed by the multi-instruments at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica on such special event day was compared with those of the control day (May 14). It was shown that geomagnetic activity was very quiet on May 11 at Zhongshan. The magnetic pulsation, which usually occurred at about magnetic noon, did not appear. The ionosphere was steady and stratified, and the F2 layer spread very little. The critical frequency of day-side F2 layer, f0F2, was larger than that of control day, and the peak of f0F2 appeared 2 hours earlier. The ionospheric drift velocity was less than usual. There were intensive auroral Es appearing at magnetic noon. All this indicates that the polar ionosphere was extremely quiet and geomagnetic field was much more dipolar on May 11. There were some signatures of auroral substorm before midnight, such as the negative deviation of the geomagnetic H component, accompanied with auroral Es and weak Pc3 pulsation.
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models. 相似文献
This paper presents an instance of using FD-TD method to analyze the aperture field of circular groove guide horn antenna. This process is one part of a hybrid method to solve the radiation field of aperture antenna. To verify the calculated aperture field the radiation pattern is computed from it and compared with the measured one. Good agreement is reached. 相似文献
Courses which teach discrete-event simulation are based on many different simulation languages. The requirements for a language to support teaching simulation are discussed. In particular, it is recommended that such languages separate into distinct modules those aspects of simulation which are taught as separate topics. Implementation of the separation is discussed. The SEESIM language, developed as a teaching aid, is described, and examples of its use are given. Straightforward use of SEESIM can be learned quickly, yet the language provides facilities for a staged introduction to advanced concepts of simulation. 相似文献
A pressure sensitive paint (PSP) measurement has been known as a pressure field measurement technique based on the oxygen quenching phenomenon of luminescence of specific luminophores. A PSP measurement was applied for pressure field measurement in a low-solidity circular cascade diffuser of a single-stage transonic centrifugal compressor with 5 in pressure ratio for HFC134a gas. The oxygen concentration was about 500 ppm. Ru (bath-phen) was adsorbed on a silica-gel thinlayer chromatography sheet, and the sheet was pasted onto the side-wall between the cascade vanes. A drastic change in luminescent intensity was recognized during a surge condition. Also the pressure variations based on luminescent intensity agreed well with the pressure fluctuations measured using a semiconductor pressure sensor with high-frequency-response. It was shown that a PSP measurement worked well to investigate the unsteady pressure fields in a circular cascade diffuser of a transonic centrifugal compressor. Moreover, the time response of PSP becomes clear as a problem to be overcome for the present. 相似文献