Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

铁分子Fe2的自旋极化效应

采用密度泛函方法(B3P86)对 Fe_2分子结构进行了优化.计算结果中未观察到自旋污染,基态波函数与高态波函数并未混杂,结果表明,Fe_2中有8个未配对电子,这些电子空间分布不同和自旋平行产生的自旋极化效应,使 Fe_2能量最低.计算结果表明,Fe_2分子的基态是~9∑_g~ ,并非~7Δ_u,进而表明 Fe_2的自旋平行效应比电子自旋配对效应要强.计算得到该分子基态的二阶、三阶和四阶力常数分别为1.4115×10~(-2)aJ/nm~2、-37.1751×10~3aJ/nm~3和 98.7596×10~4aJ/nm~4；光谱数据ω_eχ_e、B_e、α_e分别为0.3522、0.0345、 0.4963×10~(-4)cm~(-1)；离解能为3.5522eV,平衡键长为0.2137nm,振动频率为292.914cm~(-1)；并得到了 Murrel-Sorbie 函数.     

油水两液相一维非等温渗流的传递分析

在求解油水两液相非等温渗流的温度场、压力场基础上,以驱动功、驱动功率、驱动阻力、驱动速率为特征参数,对该过程进行(火用)传递分析。数值模拟的结果表明:含水通过降低油的相对渗透率、从而增大驱动阻力、减小驱动功率, 最终导致原油产量降低。     

355nm Nd∶YAG激光在H_2中的高效一级斯托克斯转换

对脉冲Nd∶YAG激光(355 nm)在H2和H2∶He-Ar混合气体中的受激拉曼散射(SRS)进行了研究。在0.5 MPa的氢气中,同时测量到从二级反斯托克斯到三级斯托克斯的多波长输出,其总转化效率达88%;而高压下只剩下一级和二级斯托克斯输出,其中二级斯托克斯最大能量转化效率达44%(对应量子效率为63%)。由于高级斯托克斯的竞争,纯氢气中一级斯托克斯的最大能量转换效率不超过43%。通过向3 MPa氢气中掺入2 MPaAr气后,很好地抑制了二级斯托克斯的产生,从而获得了能量转换效率高达71%(对应量子效率为83%)的一级斯托克斯输出。对四波混频和级联受激拉曼散射在氢气多级斯托克斯产生中的作用以及惰性气体对它们的影响进行了讨论。     

The polar ionosphere at Zhongshan station on May 11, 1999, the day the solar wind almost disappeared

The solar wind almost disappeared on May 11, 1999: the solar wind plasma density and dynamic pressure were less than 1cm⁻³ and 0.1 nPa respectively, while the interplanetary magnetic field was northward. The polar ionospheric data observed by the multi-instruments at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica on such special event day was compared with those of the control day (May 14). It was shown that geomagnetic activity was very quiet on May 11 at Zhongshan. The magnetic pulsation, which usually occurred at about magnetic noon, did not appear. The ionosphere was steady and stratified, and the F₂ layer spread very little. The critical frequency of day-side F₂ layer, f₀F₂, was larger than that of control day, and the peak of f₀F₂ appeared 2 hours earlier. The ionospheric drift velocity was less than usual. There were intensive auroral E_s appearing at magnetic noon. All this indicates that the polar ionosphere was extremely quiet and geomagnetic field was much more dipolar on May 11. There were some signatures of auroral substorm before midnight, such as the negative deviation of the geomagnetic H component, accompanied with auroral E_s and weak Pc3 pulsation.

     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Analysis of Aperture Field of Circular Groove Guide Horn Antenna by Using FD-TD Method

This paper presents an instance of using FD-TD method to analyze the aperture field of circular groove guide horn antenna. This process is one part of a hybrid method to solve the radiation field of aperture antenna. To verify the calculated aperture field the radiation pattern is computed from it and compared with the measured one. Good agreement is reached.     

A Language for Teaching Discrete-event Simulation

Courses which teach discrete-event simulation are based on many different simulation languages. The requirements for a language to support teaching simulation are discussed. In particular, it is recommended that such languages separate into distinct modules those aspects of simulation which are taught as separate topics. Implementation of the separation is discussed. The SEESIM language, developed as a teaching aid, is described, and examples of its use are given. Straightforward use of SEESIM can be learned quickly, yet the language provides facilities for a staged introduction to advanced concepts of simulation.     

Application of pressure sensitive paint measurement to a low-solidity cascade diffuser of a transonic centrifugal compressor

A pressure sensitive paint (PSP) measurement has been known as a pressure field measurement technique based on the oxygen quenching phenomenon of luminescence of specific luminophores. A PSP measurement was applied for pressure field measurement in a low-solidity circular cascade diffuser of a single-stage transonic centrifugal compressor with 5 in pressure ratio for HFC134a gas. The oxygen concentration was about 500 ppm. Ru (bath-phen) was adsorbed on a silica-gel thinlayer chromatography sheet, and the sheet was pasted onto the side-wall between the cascade vanes. A drastic change in luminescent intensity was recognized during a surge condition. Also the pressure variations based on luminescent intensity agreed well with the pressure fluctuations measured using a semiconductor pressure sensor with high-frequency-response. It was shown that a PSP measurement worked well to investigate the unsteady pressure fields in a circular cascade diffuser of a transonic centrifugal compressor. Moreover, the time response of PSP becomes clear as a problem to be overcome for the present.