A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

Synthesis of methyl ethers of methyl 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside

A convenient method is proposed for the synthesis of all the individual methyl ethers of methyl 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside based on the partial methylation of 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside with dimethyl sulfate in an alkaline medium followed by preparative liquid column chromatography on silica gel of the resulting mixture of methyl ethers.     

On the distribution of the number of real zeros of a random polynomial

In this note, we find the distibution of the number of real zeros of a random polynomial. We also derive a formula for the expected number of complex zeros lying in a given domain of the complex plane. Bibliography: 7 titles. __________ Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov POMI, Vol. 320, 2004, pp. 69–79.     

The matrix equation AX-YB=C and related problems

The main result of the paper is a theorem, using which a new proof of Roth’s theorem is obtained, a new solvability criterion for the matrix equation AX-YB = C is proved, a formula for a particular solution of the latter is derived, and the least of the orders of square nonsingular matrices containing a given rectangular matrix as a submatrix is determined. Bibliography: 5 titles. __________ Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov POMI, Vol. 323, 2005, pp. 15–23.     

Analysis of packing factors of crystalline polymers in terms of the glass transition to melting temperature radio

An expression for the ratio of the glass transition temperature to the melting temperature, T _g/T _m, was derived with allowance for fluctuations of the packing factor in the amorphous state. This relationship made it possible to describe the actual range of variation in T _g/T _m depending on a change in the packing factor in the crystalline state k _{o, cr}. The proposed approach forms the basis for the method of determination of increments in the packing ratio k _{o, cr} and formulation of the principles of selection of experimental data for calculations. The glass transition temperatures in polyethylene depending on the type of unit cell were calculated.     

Definition and properties of characteristic frequencies of a linear equation

The definition of the characteristic frequencies of zeroes and changes of sign for solutions is given. It is equal to the upper medium (with respect to the time half-axis) of their number on the half-interval of length π. We also define the main frequencies for a linear homogeneous equation of order n. These main frequencies for an equation with constant coefficients coincide with the absolute values of the imaginary parts of the roots of the corresponding characteristic polynomial. It is proved that for the second-order equation the main frequencies are the same for all solutions and that they are stable with respect to uniformly small and infinitely small perturbations of the coefficients. For the third-order equation they can be different, and for any of the main frequencies an example of nonstability is given. __________ Translated from Trudy Seminara imeni I. G. Petrovskogo, No. 25, pp. 249–294, 2005.