Error analysis: a tool for selecting travel demand models

In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection.     

Correlations between dynamical properties and features of potential energy surfaces for the light atom transfer reactions O+HCl→OH+Cl AND Cl+HCl→ClH+Cl

A three-dimensional quasiclassical trajectory study of the dynamics of the light atom transfer reaction O(³P) + HCl(ν=0)→ OH + Cl was carried out employing two LEPS potential energy surfaces (I and II). Attention was focused mainly on three-dynamical properties; the oscillatory behavior of partial cross sections as a function of collision energy; the rotational excitation of the products; and the influence of reagent rotation on reactivity. Distinct differences were found between surfaces I and II with respect to these properties. The examination of individual trajectories indicated that there is a significant difference in the nature of these surfaces. While surface I is governed by weak repulsive forces, surface II is governed by strong attractive forces which tend to direct the reactants toward a collinear geometry. The present results confirm conclusions reached from an earlier study of the reaction Cl+HCl→ClH+Cl concerning correlations between dynamical properties and features of potential energy surfaces. For surfaces of the type that we termed HREP, since they are of repulsive nature and they lead to highly rotationally excited products, no significant oscillations of partial cross sections are obtained and reagent rotation promotes the reaction. On the other hand, for surfaces of the type that we termed COLD (collinearly directing), since they tend to direct the reactants toward a collinear geometry and form rotationally “cold” products, significant oscillations of partial cross sections are obtained and reagent rotation causes a decline in reactivity.     

The Barnett approximation in the theory of hydrodynamic fluctuations

The Langevin dynamics and fluctuational-dissipative relationships for the hydrodynamic fluctuations for systems which are described in the third Barnett order with respect to the gradients of the hydrodynamic variables are generalized on the basis of a kinetic approach.     

Automatic error correction in inflected languages

Systems for automatic detection and correction of spelling errors in natural language texts are considered. The development of such systems for both English and Russian (and for inflected languages in general, including all Slavic languages) is discussed. An approach associated with morphological analysis of the wordforms in the given text is described. The topics considered in the paper include the main methods of automatic spelling correction, levels of automation of the spelling error correction process, the effect of the type of computer used, the use of spelling error correctors in a stand-alone mode and in combination with word-processing software, and the maintenance of auxiliary dictionaries.Translated from Itogi Nauki i Tekhniki, Seriya Teoriya Veroyatnostei, Matematicheskaya Statistika, Teoreticheskaya Kibernetika, Vol. 28, pp. 111–139, 1988.     

EXPRESSIONS FOR PREDICTING FUNDAMENTAL NATURAL FREQUENCIES OF NON-CYLINDRICAL HELICAL SPRINGS

Numerical and analytical studies are performed for the free vibration analysis of non-cylindrical (conical, barrel and hyperboloidal types) helical springs. The stiffness matrix method is used in the numerical analysis. A total of 12 degrees of freedom (six displacements and six rotations) is described for an element. The exact element stiffness matrix and the exact concentrated element inertia matrix are used in the formulation. The rotary inertia, the shear and extensional deformation effects are considered in the analysis. Comparison of the numerical results with the reported results obtained numerically and experimentally gives satisfactory values. After verification of the numerical frequencies, the non-dimensional fundamental frequencies of fixed-fixed non-cylindrical helical springs with circular section are expressed in a simple formula with a maximum absolute relative error of 5% using those numerical values for the constant helix pitch angles (5°, 10°, and 15°). These expressions restricted to the fundamental frequencies are also verified with ANSYS results.     

A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

Navier-Stokes approximation and problems of the Chapman-Enskog projection for kinetic equations

The purpose of this paper is to investigate problems of the Navier-Stokes approximation to kinetic equations in terms of the so-called Chapman-Enskog projection. One considers properties of the Chapman-Enskog projection for the Cauchy problem for moment approximations of the kinetic equation and primarily the Chapman-Enskog projection for the Boltzmann-Peierls kinetic equation. The existence of the Chapman-Enskog projection for the Cauchy problem is proved for the phase space of conservative variables (phenomena of nonlinear diffusion) and for the phase space of physical variables (the second sound projection). __________ Translated from Trudy Seminara imeni I. G. Petrovskogo, No. 25, pp. 184–225, 2005.     

Infinite paths in planar graphs III, 1‐way infinite paths

An infinite graph is 2‐indivisible if the deletion of any finite set of vertices from the graph results in exactly one infinite component. Let G be a 4‐connected, 2‐indivisible, infinite, plane graph. It is known that G contains a spanning 1‐way infinite path. In this paper, we prove a stronger result by showing that, for any vertex x and any edge e on a facial cycle of G, there is a spanning 1‐way infinite path in G from x and through e. Results will be used in two forthcoming papers to establish a conjecture of Nash‐Williams. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Graph Theory