Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

四角晶相HfO2(001)表面原子和电子结构研究

采用基于第一性原理的密度泛函理论研究了四角晶相二氧化铪(t-HfO₂)体相及 其(001)表面的原子几何与电子结构.理论计算结果表明，t-HfO₂(001)表面不会 产生重构现象.与体相电子结构相比, t-HfO₂(001)表面态密度明显高于体相态 密度.其次，表面原子的态密度更靠近费米能级(E_F)，价带往低能量处移动，并 有表面态产生.计算结果表明了t-HfO₂表面禁带宽度明显低于体相的禁带宽度. t-HfO₂(001)的表面态产生以及表面禁带宽度减小是由于Hf原子与O原子的配位 数减少，表面原子周围的环境发生变化而引起的. 关键词： 密度泛函理论 2(001)')" href="#">t-HfO₂(001) 表面电子结构     

轴向流对Z箍缩等离子体稳定性的影响

利用理想磁流体力学(MHD)模型对有轴向流参与的Z箍缩等离子体不稳定性进行了分析.对可压缩平板等离子体模型的色散关系进行了推导,讨论了三种不同等离子体状态下的不稳定性增长率.结果显示,等离子体的可压缩性对磁瑞利-泰勒/开尔文-亥姆霍兹(MRT/KH)杂化不稳定性有抑制作用,改善了轴向剪切流对长波长扰动的影响.分析了不同轴向流速度分布对系统稳定性的影响.结果表明,对于峰值相同的不同轴向流,其对不稳定性的抑制效果只依赖于扰动集中区域内速度剪切的大小,与其他位置的速度剪切无关.     

应力对M-Z型InP/InGaAsP-EAM偏振

采用Agilent 81910A光子全参量测试仪,首次实验研究了InP/In1－xGaxAs1－yPy-MQW（Multiple-Quantum-Well,MQW）材料与衬底间因应力而产生的M-Z型光调制器的PDL影响以及由此引起的由差分群时延(Differential Group Delay,DGD)表征的偏振模色散(Polarization Mode Dispersion,PMD).研究结果表明,半导体MQW光调制器的PDL与DGD是一致的.因此在半导体光器件的制作过程中,应尽可能地减小衬底与波导芯层之间的因残存应力的存在造成对光器件的高速性能的不利影响.     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

980 nm激发下Er3+/Yb3+共掺杂ZrO2-Al2O3粉末的上转换发光特性

通过固相反应法制备了Er3+/Yb3+共掺杂ZrO2-Al2O3粉末的样品,并对样品在980nm激光激发下的上转换发光特性进行了研究.从发射光谱可以发现,在可见光范围内有3个强的发光带,一个位于654nm附近的红光带和两个分别位于545nm、525nm附近的绿光带,分别对应于Er3+离子的以下辐射跃迁:4F9/2→4I15/2、4S3/2→4I15/2、2H11/2→4I15/2.其中又以Er3+离子的4F9/2→4I15/2跃迁产生的红色荧光辐射最强.对其上转换发光机制进行了分析,发现这三个发光过程都是双光子过程.对样品粉末进行了XRD检测,发现ZrO2主要以立方相为主,并且计算得到了这种立方结构的晶格常数.Al2O3固溶于ZrO2中,Al3+嵌入ZrO2后产生氧空位,导致ZrO2晶体的对称性降低,这种结构变化更有利于提高上转换效率,即上转换发光强度增强.