A dynamic scorecard for monitoring baseline performance with application to tracking a mortgage portfolio

A principled technique for monitoring the performance of a consumer credit scorecard through time is derived from Kalman filtering. Standard approaches sporadically compare certain characteristics of the new applicants with those predicted from the scorecard. The new approach systematically updates the scorecard combining new applicant information with the previous best estimate. The dynamically updated scorecard is tracked through time and compared to limits calculated by sequential simulation from the baseline scorecard. The observation equation of the Kalman filter is tailored to take the results of fitting local scorecards by logistic regression to batches of new clients that arrive in the current time interval. The states in the Kalman filter represent the true or underlying score for each attribute in the card: the parameters of the logistic regression. Their progress in time is modelled by a random walk and the filter provides the best estimate of the scores using past and present information. We illustrate the technique using a commercial mortgage portfolio and the results indicate significant emerging deficiencies in the baseline scorecard.     

Einstein relation in chemically doped organic semiconductors

Based on the assumption of Gaussian energy distributions of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO) and the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO), analytical expressions of generalized Einstein relation in chemically doped organic semiconductor are developed, by approximation of Coulomb traps with a rectangle potential well. Numerical calculations show that traditional Einstein relations do not hold for chemically doped organic semiconductors. Similar to physical doping, the dependence of diffusion coefficient to mobility D/μ ratio on the carrier concentration has a maximum. An essential difference between chemical doping and physical doping is that, the D/μ ratio in chemically doped organic semiconductors depends not only on carrier concentration and doping concentration, but also on the applied electric field. PACS 71.20.Rv; 72.90.+y; 73.50.-h     

Group-valued measures on coarse-grained quantum logics

In [3] it was shown that a (real) signed measure on a cyclic coarse-grained quantum logic can be extended, as a signed measure, over the entire power algebra. Later ([9]) this result was re-proved (and further improved on) and, moreover, the non-negative measures were shown to allow for extensions as non-negative measures. In both cases the proof technique used was the technique of linear algebra. In this paper we further generalize the results cited by extending group-valued measures on cyclic coarse-grained quantum logics (or non-negative group-valued measures for lattice-ordered groups). Obviously, the proof technique is entirely different from that of the preceding papers. In addition, we provide a new combinatorial argument for describing all atoms of cyclic coarse-grained quantum logics.     

Mixed Elastico-Plasticity Problems with Partially Unknown Boundaries

In this paper,we study mixed elastico-plasticity problems in which part of the boundary is known,while the other part of the boundary is unknown and is a free boundary.Under certain conditions,this problemcan be transformed into a Riemann-Hilbert boundary value problem for analytic functions and a mixed boundaryvalue problem for complex equations.Using the theory of generalized analytic functions,the solvability of theproblem is discussed.     

Property (<Emphasis Type="Italic">T</Emphasis>) and rigidity for actions on Banach spaces

We study property (T) and the fixed-point property for actions on L ^p and other Banach spaces. We show that property (T) holds when L ² is replaced by L ^p (and even a subspace/quotient of L ^p ), and that in fact it is independent of 1≤p<∞. We show that the fixed-point property for L ^p follows from property (T) when 1<p< 2+ε. For simple Lie groups and their lattices, we prove that the fixed-point property for L ^p holds for any 1< p<∞ if and only if the rank is at least two. Finally, we obtain a superrigidity result for actions of irreducible lattices in products of general groups on superreflexive spaces. Bader partially supported by ISF grant 100146; Furman partially supported by NSF grants DMS-0094245 and DMS-0604611; Gelander partially supported by NSF grant DMS-0404557 and BSF grant 2004010; Monod partially supported by FNS (CH) and NSF (US).     

Risk and quality control in a supply chain: competitive and collaborative approaches

This paper provides a quantitative and comparative economic and risk approach to strategic quality control in a supply chain, consisting of one supplier and one producer, using a random payoff game. Such a game is first solved in a risk-neutral framework by assuming that both parties are competing with each other. We show in this case that there may be an interior solution to the inspection game. A similar analysis under a collaborative framework is shown to be trivial and not practical, with a solution to the inspection game being an ‘all or nothing’ solution to one or both the parties involved. For these reasons, the sampling random payoff game is transformed into a Neyman–Pearson risk constraints game, where the parties minimize the expected costs subject to a set of Neyman–Pearson risk (type I and type II) constraints. In this case, the number of potential equilibria can be large. A number of such solutions are developed and a practical (convex) approach is suggested by providing an interior (partial sampling) solution for the collaborative case. Numerical examples are developed to demonstrate the procedure used. Thus, unlike theoretical approaches to the solution of strategic quality control random payoff games, the approach we construct is both practical and consistent with the statistical risk Neyman–Pearson approach.     

A benchmark-learning roadmap for regional sustainable development in China

Journal of the Operational Research Society - Serious environmental problems have accompanied China's remarkable economic growth for decades, which also have direct and indirect impacts on its...     

Properties of<Emphasis Type="Italic">B</Emphasis><Subscript>c</Subscript> meson

The mass spectrum ofcb meson is investigated with an effective quark-antiquark potential of the form -α_c/r +Ar ^νwith ν varying from 0.5 to 2.0. TheS andP-wave masses, pseudoscalar decay constant, weak decay partial widths in spectator model and the lifetime ofB _cmeson are computed. The properties calculated here are found to be in good agreement with other theoretical and experimental values at potential index,ν = 1     

Learning Theory Estimates via Integral Operators and Their Approximations

The regression problem in learning theory is investigated with least square Tikhonov regularization schemes in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). We follow our previous work and apply the sampling operator to the error analysis in both the RKHS norm and the L² norm. The tool for estimating the sample error is a Bennet inequality for random variables with values in Hilbert spaces. By taking the Hilbert space to be the one consisting of Hilbert-Schmidt operators in the RKHS, we improve the error bounds in the L² metric, motivated by an idea of Caponnetto and de Vito. The error bounds we derive in the RKHS norm, together with a Tsybakov function we discuss here, yield interesting applications to the error analysis of the (binary) classification problem, since the RKHS metric controls the one for the uniform convergence.     

OR and the challenge to improve the NHS: modelling for insight and improvement in in-patient flows

This paper considers efforts to improve in-patient flows, a particularly urgent issue in the National Health Service (NHS). The context is described and related to reasons why OR has been making relatively little contribution. The paper argues that large complex models may often be unnecessary and even get in the way of providing clear insight and guidance for problem owners. The importance of understanding the generic working of systems to lead to improvement, and the limitations of simply describing them, is stressed. It is demonstrated that some very simple models can be of significant practical value in understanding and managing complex systems, changing mindsets and driving collection and use of operationally valuable data. Recommendations for more effective engagement with the NHS are offered.