On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

Tomographic reconstruction using heuristic Monte Carlo methods

A tomographic reconstruction method based on Monte Carlo random searching guided by the information contained in the projections of radiographed objects is presented. In order to solve the optimization problem, a multiscale algorithm is proposed to reduce computation. The reconstruction is performed in a coarse-to-fine multigrid scale that initializes each resolution level with the reconstruction of the previous coarser level, which substantially improves the performance. The method was applied to a real case reconstructing the internal structure of a small metallic object with internal components, showing excellent results.     

Electric Instability in <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-CdTe:In Layers with <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-Shaped Voltage-Current Characteristics

A switching of the S-type in the 20–200 μm thick polycrystalline n-CdTe:In layers with resistance of 10³–10⁶ Ω·cm is studied. The electric instability in the layers is found to be due to the electron-thermal breakdown mechanism. The dependence of the switching threshold parameters on the intensity of exposure can be used for fabrication of infrared-radiation controlled electric switches on the basis of n-CdTe:In layers. __________ Translated from Izvestiya Vysshikh Uchebnykh Zavedenii, Fizika, No. 6, pp. 28–30, June, 2005.     

The “corset effect” of spin-lattice relaxation in polymer melts confined in nanoporous media

Linear polyethylene oxides with molecular weightsM _w of 1665 and 10170 confined in pores with variable diameters in a solid methacrylate matrix were studied by proton field-cycling nuclear magnetic resonance relaxometry. The pore diameter was varied in the range of 9–57 nm. In all cases, the spin-lattice relaxation time shows a frequency dependence close toT ₁∞ v^3/4 in the range ofv=3·10^?1-2·10¹ MHz as predicted by the tube-reptation model. This protonT ₁ dispersion essentially reproduces that found in a previous deuteron study (R. Kimmich, R.-O. Seitter, U. Beginn, M. Möller, N. Fatkullin: Chem. Phys. Lett. 307, 147, 1999). As a feature particularly characteristic for reptation, this finding suggests that reptation is the dominating chain dynamics mechanism under pore confinement in the corresponding time range. The absolute values of the spin-lattice relaxation times indicate that the diameter of the effective tubes in which reptation occurs is much smaller than the pore diameters on the time scale of spin-lattice relaxation experimens. An estimation leads to a valued ^*～0.5 nm. The impenetrability of the solid pore walls, the uncrossability of polymer chains (“excluded volume”) and the low value of the compressibility in polymer melts create the “corset effect” which reduces the lateral motions of polymer chains to a microscopic scale of only a few tenths of a nanometer.     

Model spectral function and superconductivity in BaxK1−xBiO3 (x=0.5-0.7)

The Eliashberg spectral density function is constructed for the superconducting compound Ba_xK_1−xBiO₃ with x=0.5, 0.6, 0.7. The functions, besides yielding some prominent structures, show widely spreading spectra that inhibit lattice instability by yielding not too large values of λ(<1.32). The resulting spectral functions show similar shape as other results, where available, and also successfully reproduce the observed critical temperature, isotope exponent, gap ratio and several other parameters.     

Electro-optic size effects and effects of nonlinear saturation in PLZT ceramics

Results of studying electro-optic size effects and nonlinear electro-optic effects in ferroelectric PLZT ceramics are presented. It is established that the presence of electro-optic size effects makes microvolume samples of PLZT ceramics promising for designing efficient modulating devices.     

Fundamentals of the direct measurement of sound intensity and practical applications

Sound intensity is a measure of the magnitude and direction of the flow of sound energy. Developments in sound intensity measurement capabilities in the last quarter century have occurred because of several reasons. The main ones include the derivation of the cross-spectral formulation for sound intensity and developments in digital signal processing. This paper begins with a brief historical introduction of sound intensity measurements. Then elementary theory for sound intensity is presented. A section on sound intensity measurements is then included. The next section of the paper discusses sources of measurement error; the major sources of error are described in some detail. The paper continues with a discussion of the main applications of sound intensity measurements: sound power determination, noise source identification, and transmission loss measurements. The paper concludes with a discussion of ISO and ANSI intensity related standards and relevant references.