Error analysis: a tool for selecting travel demand models

In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection.     

On the variational representation of solutions to some quasilinear equations and systems of hyperbolic type on the basis of potential theory

We demonstrate a method that permits to obtain generalized solutions for some quasilinear equations and systems of hyperbolic type. The corresponding variational principle is constructed using the theory of equilibrium of a potential in an external field. Dedicated to the memory of B. M. Levitan Supported by RFBR grants Nos. 05-01-00522 and NSh-1551.2003.1, by Program No. 1 of the Branch of Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, and by INTAS project No. 03-51-6637.     

On construction of symmetries from integrals of hyperbolic partial differential systems

An algorithm is proposed which allows one to construct higher symmetries of arbitrary order for some special classes of hyperbolic systems possessing integrals. The Pohlmeyer-Lund-Regge system and the open two-dimensional Toda lattices are shown to belong to the class of systems where our algorithm is applicable. __________ Translated from Fundamental’naya i Prikladnaya Matematika (Fundamental and Applied Mathematics), Vol. 10, No. 1, Geometry of Integrable Models, 2004.     

A study of structural, compositional and optical properties of spray-deposited non-stoichiometric (Zn,Fe)S thin films

Non-stoichiometric ternary chalcogenides (Zn,Fe)S were prepared in the film form by pyrolytic spray deposition technique, using air/nitrogen as the carrier gas. The precursor solution comprised of ZnCl₂, FeCl₂ and thiourea. The depositions were carried out under optimum conditions of experimental parameters viz. carrier gas (air/nitrogen) flow rate, concentration of precursor constituents, nozzle substrate distance and temperature of quartz substrate. The deposited thin films were later sintered in argon at 1073 K for 120 min.The structural, compositional and optical properties of the sintered thin films were studied. X-ray diffraction studies of the thin films indicated the presence of (Zn,Fe)S solid solution with prominent cubic sphalerite phase while surface morphology as determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed a granular structure.The chemical composition of the resulting thin films as analyzed by energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDAX) reflected the composition of the precursor solutions from which the depositions were carried out with Fe at% values ranging from 0.4 up to 33.SEM micrographs of thin films reveal that the grain sizes of the thin films prepared using air as carrier gas and N₂ as carrier gas are in the vicinity of 300 and 150 nm, respectively.The diffuse transmittance measurements for thin films, as a function of wavelength reveal the dependence of direct optical band gap on Fe content and type of phase.     

Study of thermal currents in powder β-spodumene ceramics doped with Cuo, FeO and TiO2

Ternary-phase ceramic system of Li₂O Al₂O₃ 4SiO₂ doped with CuO, FeO and TiO₂ has been prepared and subjected to dc electrical conductivity and thermally stimulated depolarization current (TSDC) measurements as a function of temperature (30-250 °C) and field strength. The electrical conductivity results are explained by assuming both ionic and electronic conduction mechanisms coexist with different contributions over the whole temperature range of experiments. TSDC spectra have been found to be characterized by a broad intense relaxation peak, which can be attributed to an ionic charge polarization. The broad relaxation transitions are apparently a result of the nonuniform nature of this process. Activation energies are calculated for both dc electrical conductivity and TSDC according to Arrhenius equation and initial rise method, respectively.     

A study of formation of solid ionic conductors in the mixed system (CdI2)b[(Ag2O)·(CrO3)]100-b (20≤b≤80)

Using Wagner's polarization technique and EMF method the joinic and silver ionic transport number measurements of various compositions of the mixed system CdI₂-Ag₂O-CrO₃ have been made. The presence of AgI in these materials has been inferred from the typical β → α phase transition of AgI, which is characterized by an endothermic peak at around 420 K in the DSC traces of these specimens. While the structural analysis performed by means of powder X-ray diffraction has revealed the formation of ionic phases involving polycrystalline compounds, the Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic results have indicated the presence of ionic species thus confirming the ionic nature of the products. The complex impedance studies carried out in the frequency range 20 Hz - 1 MHz and over the temperature range 294 – 442 K have revealed that the best conducting composition, namely 55%(CdI₂) – 45%(Ag₂O·CrO₃), would exhibit a silver ionic conductivity of 1.3×10⁻⁵Scm⁻¹ at 294 K.     

Portable and Automatic Mössbauer Analysis

A portable Mössbauer spectrometer, developed for extraterrestrial applications, opens up new industrial applications of MBS. But for industrial applications, an available tool for fast data analysis is also required, and it should be easy to handle. The analysis of Mössbauer spectra and their parameters is a barrier for the popularity of this wide-applicable spectroscopic technique in industry. Based on experience, the analysis of a Mössbauer spectrum is time-consuming and requires the dedication of a specialist. However, the analysis of Mössbauer spectra, from the fitting to the identification of the sample phases, can be faster using by genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks. Industrial applications are very specific ones and the data analysis can be performed using these algorithms. In combination with an automatic analysis, the Mössbauer spectrometer can be used as a probe instrument which covers the main industrial needs for an on-line monitoring of its products, processes and case studies. Some of these real industrial applications will be discussed.