Error analysis: a tool for selecting travel demand models

In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection.     

THE QUALITATIVE CONTENT OF RENEWABLE RESOURCE MODELS

This paper analyzes the extent to which standard dynamic renewable resource models possess refutable implications. Both the steady state comparative static and local comparative dynamic properties of the standard model are studied. A unified framework is developed which enables one to analyze the qualitative properties of any standard renewable resource model. This is achieved by explicitly linking the local stability, steady state comparative static, and local comparative dynamic properties of the model.     

Gluon jets from quarkonia

A detailed analysis is made within perturbative QCD of the decays into gluon jets of P-wave and S-wave quarkonia (J^PC = 0⁺⁺, 1⁺⁺, 2⁺⁺, 1^+? and 0^?+, 1^??). For all those states we compute to leading non-trivial order in α_s the conventional fraction f(?, δ) of the jet-like hadronic final states, characterized by the back-to-back cone of half angle δ, in which all but a small fraction ? of the total energy is emitted. To the same order we give also the average values of thrust momenta and spherocity distributions.     

Lateral interactions in the thermal desorption of H2 from clean Cu/Ni(110) alloy surfaces

The adsorption of hydrogen on a clean Cu10%/Ni90% (110) alloy single crystal was studied using flash desorption spectroscopy (FDS), Auger electron spectroscopy (AES), and work function measurements. Surface compositions were varied from 100% Ni to 35% Ni. The hydrogen chemisorption on a-surface of 100% nickel revealed strong attractive interactions between the hydrogen atoms in accordance with previous work on Ni(100). Three desorption states (β₁, β₂ and α) appeared in the desorption spectra. The highest temperature (α) state was occupied only after the initial population of the β₂-state. As the amount of copper was increased in the nickel substrate, desorption from the higher energy binding α-state was reduced, indicating a decrease in the attractive interactions among hydrogen atoms. The hydrogen coverage at saturation was not affected by the addition of copper to the nickel substrate until the copper concentration was greater than 25% at which a sharp reduction in saturation coverage occurred. This phenomenon was apparently due to the adsorption of hydrogen on Ni atoms followed by occupation of NiNi and CuNi bridged adsorption sites, while occupation of CuCu sites was restricted due to an energy barrier to migration.     

Rb saturation spectroscopy with an optically narrowed FM diode laser

A fast-frequency modulated (FM) diode laser has been optically narrowed using the technique of resonant optical feedback, to provide linewidths in each FM mode of ≈ 200 kHz peak-to-peak. With a drive frequency of 50 MHz and modulation index of 0.2, the FM laser has been used for the first time to obtain Doppler-free FM spectra of the Rb D₁ line at 795 nm. The potential use of this system for laser frequency stabilisation is discussed.     

Hydromagnetic instability of streaming fluids in porous medium

The instability of the plane interface between two uniform, superposed, electrically conducting and counter-streaming fluids through a porous medium is considered in the presence of a horizontal magnetic field. In the absence of surface tension, perturbations transverse to the direction of streaming are found to be unaffected by the presence of streaming if perturbations in the direction of streaming are ignored. For perturbations in all other directions there exists instability for a certain wavenumber range. The instability of this system is postponed by the presence of magnetic field. The magnetic field and surface tension are able to suppress this Kelvin-Helmholtz instability for small wavelength perturbations and the medium porosity reduces the stability range given in terms of a difference between the streaming velocities and the Alfvén velocity.This research forms a part of the research project awarded to the first author (R.C.S.) by the University Grants Commission.     

A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

Miscibility of bisphenol-A polycarbonate with poly(methyl methacrylate)

The miscibility of bisphenol-A polycarbonate (PC) with poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) has been reexamined using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and optical indications for phase separation on heating, i.e., lower critical solution temperature (LCST) behavior. Various methods have been used to prepare the blends including methylene chloride (CH₂Cl₂) and tetrahydrofuran (THF) solution casting, melt mixing, and precipitation of PC and PMMA simultaneously from THF solution by using the nonsolvents methanol and heptane. It is shown that the resulting phase behavior for PC/PMMA blends is strongly affected by the blend preparation method. However, these blends are miscible over the whole blend composition range (unambiguous single composition-dependent T_g's and LCST behavior) when prepared by precipitation from solution using heptane as the nonsolvent. To the contrary, solution-cast and melt-mixed PC/PMMA blends were all phase separated, which may be attributed to the “solvent” effect and LCST behavior, respectively, not discovered in previous reports. Methanol precipitation does not lead to fully mixed blends, which demonstrates the importance of the choice of nonsolvent when using the precipitation method.     

Coherence properties of the supercontinuum source

Mutual–temporal coherence of the supercontinuum (SC) generation has been experimentally investigated using a diffraction grating based interferometer. A broadband SC generation was produced in a pyrex glass plate with a 1.6-μm coherence length at 550-nm center wavelength. The degree of mutual coherence of 0.34 was measured for a wavefront shift for zero and first diffraction orders of half of the beam diameter. A design of SC source with the capability of manipulating the amplitudes and phases of optical frequency components within the SC pulse is presented for coherence applications.