On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Naphthalimide-thiazoles as novel photonucleases: molecular design, synthesis, and evaluation

A new family of photonucleases, naphthalimide-thiazoles was synthesized and evaluated. These compounds intercalated into DNA efficiently and damaged DNA photochemically at concentrations as low as 5 μM. Mechanistic experiment suggests that a novel naphthalimide-thiazole radical produced via an excited triple state might be involved in the DNA photodamage. Different activity may arise from the impact of substituents at 2-phenyl ring of thiazole on the electron population of excited triple state according to AM1 semi-empirical calculation.     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

Synthesis and characterization of a polyfluorene containing carbazole and oxadiazole dipolar pendent groups and its application to electroluminescent devices

We have synthesized a blue‐light‐emitting polyfluorene (PF) derivative ( PF‐CBZ‐OXD ) that presents bulky hole‐transporting carbazole and electron‐transporting oxadiazole pendent groups functionalized at the C‐9 positions of alternating fluorene units. The results from photoluminescence and electrochemical measurements indicate that both the side chains and the PF main chain retain their own electronic characteristics in the copolymer. An electroluminescent device incorporating this polymer as the emitting layer was turned on at 4.5 V; it exhibited a stable blue emission with a maximum external quantum efficiency of 1.1%. Moreover, we doped PF‐CBZ‐OXD and its analogue PF‐TPA‐OXD with a red‐light‐emitting iridium phosphor for use as components of phosphorescent red‐light emitters to investigate the effect of the host's HOMO energy level on the degree of charge trapping and on the electrophosphorescent efficiency. We found that spectral overlap and individual energy level matching between the host and guest were both crucial features affecting the performance of the electroluminescence devices. Atomic force microscopy measurements indicated that the dipolar nature of PF‐CBZ‐OXD , in contrast to the general nonpolarity of polydialkylfluorenes, provided a stabilizing environment that allowed homogeneous dispersion of the polar iridium triplet dopant. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 45: 2925–2937, 2007     

System Identification Models of the Equivalent Permittivity for Rain Medium

The dielectric constant for rain medium is investigated by utilizing the system identification method. The rain rate model and frequency model of permittivity in millimeter waves band for rain medium are presented. The results obtained with models are in very good agreement with references in calculating the attenuation of electromagnetic waves induced by rain, which Shows that the obtained models are valid and practicable. The cross-polar discrimination gotten with rain rate model is in agreement with references.     

具体和抽象统一的原则

学生学习知识,一般来说,是从生动的具体的直观开始的,生动的直观能使学生获得关于事物生动而具体的感性认识。但是,感性认识并没有揭露事物的本质,人们对事物本质的认识要通过一系列的抽象来完成。     

cos πρ theorems for δ-subharmonic functions

For ϕ a δ-subharmonic function, sharp results are obtained that connectA(r, ϕ), B(r, ϕ) andT(r, ϕ), whereA(r, ϕ)=inf_|z|=r ϕ(z),B(r, ϕ)=sup_|z|=r ϕ(z), andT(r, ϕ) is the Nevanlinna characteristics.