Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models

Forecasting electricity prices in presentday competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naïve and other techniques.     

On deformations of Hamiltonian actions

In this paper we generalize to coisotropic actions of compact Lie groups a theorem of Guillemin on deformations of Hamiltonian structures on compact symplectic manifolds. We show how one can reconstruct from the moment polytope the symplectic form on the manifold. Received: 21 March 2006     

Commutative idempotent residuated lattices

We investigate the variety of residuated lattices with a commutative and idempotent monoid reduct.     

On potentially <Emphasis Type="Italic">H</Emphasis>-graphic sequences

For given a graph H, a graphic sequence π = (d ₁, d ₂,..., d _n) is said to be potentially H-graphic if there is a realization of π containing H as a subgraph. In this paper, we characterize the potentially (K ₅ − e)-positive graphic sequences and give two simple necessary and sufficient conditions for a positive graphic sequence π to be potentially K ₅-graphic, where K _r is a complete graph on r vertices and K _r-e is a graph obtained from K _r by deleting one edge. Moreover, we also give a simple necessary and sufficient condition for a positive graphic sequence π to be potentially K ₆-graphic. Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 10401010).     

Sudoku’s french ancestors

This column is a place for those bits of contagious mathematics that travel from person to person in the community, because they are so elegant, suprising, or appealing that one has an urge to pass them on. Contributions are most welcome.     

Quantization of complex Lagrangian submanifolds

Let Λ be a smooth Lagrangian submanifold of a complex symplectic manifold X. We construct twisted simple holonomic modules along Λ in the stack of deformation-quantization modules on X.     

Multiple Coverings of the Plane with Triangles

We prove that any 43-fold covering of the plane with translates of a triangle can be decomposed into two coverings.