Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models

Forecasting electricity prices in presentday competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naïve and other techniques.     

Identifying sets of key players in a social network

A procedure is described for finding sets of key players in a social network. A key assumption is that the optimal selection of key players depends on what they are needed for. Accordingly, two generic goals are articulated, called KPP-POS and KPP-NEG. KPP-POS is defined as the identification of key players for the purpose of optimally diffusing something through the network by using the key players as seeds. KPP-NEG is defined as the identification of key players for the purpose of disrupting or fragmenting the network by removing the key nodes. It is found that off-the-shelf centrality measures are not optimal for solving either generic problem, and therefore new measures are presented. Stephen P. Borgatti is Professor of Organization Studies at the Carroll School of Management, Boston College. His research is focused on social networks, social cognition and knowledge management. He is also interested in the application of social network analysis to the solution of managerial problems.     

Complementary spectroscopic techniques to model the association of contaminant uranium with structural surfaces

Contaminant uranium poses unique problems for decontamination of former weapons processing and nuclear power facilities, as well as chemical plants, waste storage sites and former mining facilities. In addition, dealing with the possibility of intentional (i.e., a terrorist act) or accidental release of radioactive material in a populated area requires an accurate understanding of the nature of the association of such material with structural surfaces. These surfaces must also be considered in the context of repeated contamination, and the importance of atmospheric exposure, interaction with other possible contaminants, and corrosion or surface degradation due to such exposure must be taken into account. Complementary spectroscopic techniques, especially surface spectroscopies, are essential in developing models for the interaction of contaminants with surfaces and interfaces. In this review (which also presents new data on uranium association with corroding steel surfaces), we collect models of this association as determined by spectroscopic techniques, assess the important considerations in the development of more accurate models, and address some of the questions which remain.     

On parabolic equations with a small parameter

A singularly perturbed parabolic equation with a nonlinear right-hand side of a special form is examined. A numerical analytical study of such equations is performed.     

Optical properties of Fe-doped silica films on Si

Optical properties of Fe-doped silica films on Si were investigated by ellipsometric technique in the region 1-5 eV. Samples were produced by sol-gel method. Precursors were prepared by mixing tetraethoxysilane (TEOS) solution in ethanol and water with aqueous solution of Fe-chloride or Fe-acetate. The coating solution was deposited on Si substrates by spin on technique. The size of Fe-containing nanometric-sized particles depended on technology and varied from 20 to 100 nm. Optical response of complex hybrid samples SiO₂:Fe/Si was interpreted in a multi-layer model. In the inverse problem, the Maxwell equations were solved by transfer matrix technique. Dielectric function of Fe-doped silica layers was calculated in the model of effective media. Analysis of optical data has shown that various Fe-oxides formed. Experimental data for films obtained from precursors with Fe-acetate and annealed in hydrogen were well described by the model calculations taking into account a small contribution 1-5% of metal Fe imbedded in silica. The Fe/Fe-O contribution to optical response increased for samples grown from FeCl₃-precursor. Ellipsometric data for Fe-doped silica films on Si were interpreted taking into account the structural AFM studies as well as the results of magnetic measurements.     

Effective Mode Volume of Nanoscale Plasmon Cavities

The controlled squeezing of electromagnetic energy into nanometric volumes via surface plasmon-polariton excitations in plasmonic nanoresonators is analyzed using the concept of an effective electromagnetic mode volume V _eff, while taking careful account of the plasmon-polariton dispersion and the electromagnetic energy stored in the metal. Together with the quality factor Q of the cavity resonance, this enables a comparison with dielectric optical cavities, where V _eff is limited by diffraction. For a Fabry–Perot type planar metallic cavity, a one-dimensional analytic model as well as a three-dimensional finite-difference time-domain simulation reveal that V _eff is not bounded by diffraction, and that Q/V _eff increases for decreasing cavity size. In this picture, matter–plasmon interactions can be quantified in terms of Q and V _eff, and a resonant cavity model for the enhancement of spontaneous Raman scattering is presented.     

Efficient multi and single line atomic fluorine lasers

Intense multi- and single-line laser operation is reported from semiconductively preionised atomic fluorine lasers employing an optimised capacitor transfer excitation circuitry. The performance and spectral characteristics of these lasers are discussed and compared to the characteristics of previously described atomic fluorine lasers. The efficiency of one of these lasers described, at optimum conditions, is reaching a value as high as 0.14%. To the best of our knowledge, this is the highest efficiency reported up date, for an atomic fluorine laser.