Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Study of the charge-exchange reactions\pi ^ - p \to (\pi ^0 ,\eta ,\eta \prime )n at 63 GeV

Muon electron pairs were detected in an Al multiplate spark chamber, exposed to a neutrino beam from the CERN PS. The leptons were not accompanied by other particles, except occasionally by protons. The background came mainly from muon associated π⁰ production, with one decay gamma lost. It was determined empirically, together with the small contribution from υ _e reactions. For electron energies above 2 GeV the background is 5.7±1.5 events, whereas 18 (μe)-candidates have been observed. Hence the effect is established, with a rate of about 10^?4 as compared to the muonic reactions above 3 GeV. Charm creation as the origin of this (μe)-production process is excluded; heavy neutral lepton production does not fit the kinematics observed. Instead the events are compatible with the two-body decay of an object with variable invariant mass of order 1 GeV, possibly resulting from axion interactions.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

Estimation of multivariate binary density using orthogonal functions

In this paper, the authors studied certain properties of the estimate of Liang and Krishnaiah (1985, J. Multivariate Anal. 16, 162–172) for multivariate binary density. An alternative shrinkage estimate is also obtained. The above results are generalized to general orthonormal systems.     

Existence and Stability for Spherical Crystals Growing in a Supersaturated Solution

We consider the growth of a spherical crystal in a supersaturatedsolution. In the first part, existence and uniqueness resultsfor radially symmetric growth are obtained, provided that thesupersaturation is not too large; conversely, when the far-fieldsupersaturation exceeds a critical value, it is shown that theradially symmetric solution ceases to exist in finite time.In the second part, we examine the linear stability of a radiallysymmetric similarity solution (in which the radius grows ast?) to shape perturbations. The results are compared with previousquasi-static analyses, and, in particular, the critical radiusat which the crystal becomes unstable is found to be largerfor small supersaturations, but smaller for large supersaturations,than those predicted by the quasi-static analysis     

Electric generators of singlet delta oxygen for an oxygen-iodine laser

Experimental and theoretical research into electric generators of singlet delta oxygen (SDO) for an oxygen-iodine laser made at the Lebedev Physics Institute and TRINITI is discussed. Breakdown and current-voltage characteristics of self-sustained electric discharge in SDO were studied both experimentally and theoretically, indicating that SDO and pure oxygen have quite different electric features. The electric properties and spectroscopy of an e-beam sustained discharge (EBSD) in oxygen and oxygen gas mixtures were experimentally studied. A comprehensive numerical model describing SDO kinetics in different kinds of discharge was developed. The pulsed EBSD in pure oxygen and its mixtures with noble gases was shown to be very unstable and characterized by low input energy. When adding small amounts of carbon monoxide or hydrogen, the electric stability of the EBSD increases, the specific input energy (SIE) per molecular component being more than order of magnitude higher and coming to 6.5 kJ/(l atm(O₂ + CO)) for the gas mixture O₂: Ar: CO = 1: 1: 0.1. Theoretical calculations demonstrated that, for an SIE of 6.5 kJ/(l atm), the SDO yield may reach ∼20%, exceeding its threshold value needed for oxygen-iodine laser operation at room temperature. The calibration of the optical scheme for measuring the SDO absolute concentration and yield using the detection of luminescence of the SDO going from a chemical SDO generator was performed. The measurement of the SDO yield demonstrated that it was ∼10.5% for an SIE of ∼3.0 kJ/(l atm(O2 + CO)), which is about 1.5 times less than the results of theoretical calculations for such an SIE. SDO production in RF slab discharge ignited in oxygen gas mixtures was experimentally studied, experimental SDO yield being about 10%. The choice of electrode material was demonstrated to be very important. Original Text ? Astro, Ltd., 2006.     

Gauge-Related Deformations of Ordinary Linear Differential Operators with Constant Coefficients

Relations between the coefficients of gauge-related deformations and the solutions of a certain system of ordinary nonlinear differential equations are studied. These coefficients are found in an explicit form. Bibliography: 14 titles. Dedicated to P. V. Krauklis on the occasion of his seventieth birthday __________ Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov POMI, Vol. 308, 2004, pp. 235–251.     

Onset of crater formation during short pulse laser ablation

We report morphologic changes of metallic surfaces at the onset of ablation, starting from gentle ablation to the emergence of ablation craters. The evolution of both observed melting zones and of ablation craters therein are investigated in dependence of the ablation laser fluence for nanosecond ultraviolet laser pulses. Further, consequences of crater formation for cluster synthesis within the released atomic vapor are pointed out. PACS 52.38.Mf; 79.20.Ds; 65.40.De