Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models

Forecasting electricity prices in presentday competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naïve and other techniques.     

On deformations of Hamiltonian actions

In this paper we generalize to coisotropic actions of compact Lie groups a theorem of Guillemin on deformations of Hamiltonian structures on compact symplectic manifolds. We show how one can reconstruct from the moment polytope the symplectic form on the manifold. Received: 21 March 2006     

Commutative idempotent residuated lattices

We investigate the variety of residuated lattices with a commutative and idempotent monoid reduct.     

On potentially <Emphasis Type="Italic">H</Emphasis>-graphic sequences

For given a graph H, a graphic sequence π = (d ₁, d ₂,..., d _n) is said to be potentially H-graphic if there is a realization of π containing H as a subgraph. In this paper, we characterize the potentially (K ₅ − e)-positive graphic sequences and give two simple necessary and sufficient conditions for a positive graphic sequence π to be potentially K ₅-graphic, where K _r is a complete graph on r vertices and K _r-e is a graph obtained from K _r by deleting one edge. Moreover, we also give a simple necessary and sufficient condition for a positive graphic sequence π to be potentially K ₆-graphic. Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 10401010).     

The continuity of superposition operators on some sequence spaces defined by moduli

Let λ and μ be solid sequence spaces. For a sequence of modulus functions Φ = (ϕ k) let λ(Φ) = {x = (x _k ): (ϕk(|x _k |)) ∈ λ}. Given another sequence of modulus functions Ψ = (ψ_k), we characterize the continuity of the superposition operators P _f from λ(Φ) into μ (Ψ) for some Banach sequence spaces λ and μ under the assumptions that the moduli ϕk (k ∈ ℕ) are unbounded and the topologies on the sequence spaces λ(Φ) and μ(Ψ) are given by certain F-norms. As applications we consider superposition operators on some multiplier sequence spaces of Maddox type. This research was supported by Estonian Science Foundation Grant 5376.     

Sudoku’s french ancestors

This column is a place for those bits of contagious mathematics that travel from person to person in the community, because they are so elegant, suprising, or appealing that one has an urge to pass them on. Contributions are most welcome.