The flat-maximum effect and generic linear scoring models: a test

Received on 1 July 1991. Predicting human behaviour patterns with linear correlationmodels has absorbed researchers for the past five decades. Althoughmost observers generally concede that humans are inferior tosuch models in combining information, linear scoring modelsare unfortunately, plagued by the flat-maximum effect or the‘curse of insensitivity’. As Lovie & Lovie(1986)observe: ‘The predictive ability of linear models is insensitiveto large variations in the size of regression weights and tothe number of predictors.’ In essence, seemingly differentscoringmodels tend to produce indistinguishable predictive outcomes. Since its demonstration by Dawes & Corrigan (1974), observershave cast the flat maximum in a decidedly negative light. Incontrast, Lovie & Lovie (1986) present a provocatively contrarianview of the flat maximum‘s positive potential. In thissame vein, we examine the predictive power of a generic credit-scoringmodel versus individual empirically derived systems. If, asWainer (1976) noted in regard to the flat maximum, ’itdon‘t make no nevermind’, generic credit-scoringmodels could provide cheaper alternatives to individual empiricallyderived models. During the period 1984–8, a series of linear credit-scoringmodels were developed for ten Southeastern U.S. credit unions.For each credit union, stepwise multiple regression was employedto select a subset of explanatory variables to be used in adiscriminant analysis. A generic credit-scoring equation wasdeveloped from the resulting discriminant analyses using weightedaverage coefficients from five systems. The predictive powerof the generic model was compared to the predictive power ofholdout sample of the five remaining credit-scoring models. In all cases, the generic model's performance was very closeto that of the empirically derived models. Thus, our findingssupport Lovie & Lovie's (1986) challenge to the conventionalwisdom that the flat maximum casts a pall on the successfulmodelling of judgement processes. Indeed, the flat maximum impliesa positive role for simpler, and hence cheaper, generic models.Although further research is needed, it should be possible todevelop hybrid models with generic cores that perform as wellas empirically derived linear models.     

Review of Chemometrics Applied to Spectroscopy: 1985-95, Part 2

INTRODUCTION

Before beginning Part 2 of this review, a caveat noted by Deming and Palasota is brought to the reader's attention: [1] “Press et al. [2] have emphasized that data ‘consist of numbers, of course. But these numbers are fed into the computer, not produced by it. These are numbers to be treated with considerable respect, never to be tampered with, nor subjected to a numerical process whose character you do not completely understand. You are well advised to acquire reverence for data that is rather diferent fiom the “sporty” attitude which is sometimes allowable, or even commendable, in other numerical tasks.’ Yet by and large within chemometrics, preprocessing often seems to be carried out with little understanding of its fundamental efect on the structure of the data.”     

Monomeric platinum(II) hydroxides supported by sterically dominant α-diimine ligands

The use of two new highly sterically bulky α-diimine ligands for the stabilization of neutral, monomeric platinum(II) hydroxo complexes is described. Halide abstraction from LPtCl(2) complexes of these ligands in the presence of water, followed by deprotonation of the cationic aquo complex, leads to LPt(OH)Cl and LPt(OH)(2). The latter can be reprotonated with HNTf(2) to yield a highly fluxional hydroxoaquoplatinum(II) cation.     

Scattering, accommodation, and trapping of HCl in collisions with a hydroxylated self-assembled monolayer

Time-of-flight molecular beam scattering techniques are used to explore the energy exchange, thermal accommodation, and residence time of HCl in collisions with an OH-terminated self-assembled monolayer. The monolayer, consisting of 16-mercapto-1-hexadecanol (HS(CH(2))(16)OH) self-assembled on gold, provides a well-characterized surface containing hydroxyl groups located at the gas-solid interface. Upon colliding with the hydroxylated surface, the gas-phase HCl is found to follow one of three pathways: direct impulsive scattering, thermal accommodation followed by prompt desorption, and temporary trapping through HO--- HCl hydrogen bond formation. For an incident energy of 85 kJ/mol, the HCl transfers the majority, >80%, of its translational energy to the surface. The extensive energy exchange facilitates thermalization, leading to very large accommodation probabilities on the surface. Under the experimental conditions used in this work, over 75% of the HCl approaches thermal equilibrium with the surface before desorption and, for a 6 kJ/mol HCl beam, nearly 100% of the molecules that recoil from the surface can be described by a thermal distribution at the temperature of the surface. For the molecules that reach thermal equilibrium with the surface prior to desorption, a significant fraction appear to form hydrogen bonds with surface hydroxyl groups. The adsorption energy, determined by measuring the HCl residence time as a function of surface temperature, is 24 +/- 2 kJ/mol.     

An Audiotaped Program for Reduction of High School Students' Math Anxiety

This project was designed to develop and test an audiotaped program for the reduction of math anxiety. A tape was developed that uses systematic desensitization as a treatment technique. The taped program contains muscle relaxation exercises and a hierarchy of math-related activities to be visualized while in the relaxed state. Three hundred thirty-six ninth and tenth grade college-bound math students were given two instruments to measure their level of math anxiety as a pretest. Fifty-three measured high and were invited to participate in the treatment; they were given the same instruments as a posttest. Of the twenty who responded, ten completed the treatment and ten did not participate. Those who participated had significant reductions in math anxiety levels. Those who were not treated had math anxiety levels which remained virtually unchanged.     

Thiazolo [3,2-a] pyridinium salts

The sulfides formed by the reaction of α-halo ketones or α-halo acetals with 2-mercaptopyridine may be cyclized in good yield to form thiazolo[3, 2-a]pyridinium salts. The presence of chloro or nitro substituents on the pyridine ring does not interfere with the synthesis. Nitration of 3-methylthiazolo[3, 2-a]pyridinium perchlorate has been found to occur at position 8.     

Deltafunction model for the helium dimer

The helium dimer ⁴He₂ has recently been detected, confirming earlier ab initio predictions of stability for a single bound state with binding energy of 1.310 mK. The predicted potential minimum is at 2.96 Å, with a radial distribution function peaking at 6.96 Å. We model this system using a Dirac bubble potential, which also admits just one bound j = 0 state. With the bubble located at 6.96 Å, an overlap of 0.9994 with the ab initio wave function is obtained. An average internuclear distance of 52.6 Å is calculated, in good agreement with the ab initio result. The root mean square deviation from the mean, 48.0 Å, indicates an enormous spread of the radial wave function. Also consistent with our model is the absence of bound states for the isotopic variants ³He⁴He and ³He₂. Cross sections for helium-helium scattering are also computed, using both a partial-wave expansion and the Born approximation. General trends in the energy dependence of the total cross section are accounted for, in qualitative agreement with experimental results. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

New aromatic systems having a fused thiazolium ring

The method developed for the synthesis of thiazolo[3,2-a]pyridinium salts has been extended to the first synthesis of simple thiazolo[3,2-a]pyrimidinium, thiazolo[3,2-a]-pyrazinium and thiazolo[2, 3-b]benzo[d]thiazolium salts. No method could be found for the cyclization of 4′-bromo-2-(2-benzoxazolylthio)acetophenone to the thiazolo[2,3-b]-benzoxazolium system.     

Performance evaluation of university extension providers: A frontier approach for ordered response data

A frontier model is used to evaluate the performance of extension service providers in the US land grant university system when providing assistance to organic producers. Performance efficiency indicates the effectiveness of extension agents in achieving the highest evaluations from their clientele conditioned on the farm level characteristics and environmental resources and constraints of the organic farmers. Mean performance efficiency of the extension agents is above 0.69 for entire sample with top performing extension service experts outperforming the average providers by about 44%. Performance efficiency, or advisory outcomes that are below the best that extension could provide, are not significantly reduced when extension agents deal with difficult evaluation situations.     

Transient Repetitive Exposure to Low Level Light Therapy Enhances Collateral Blood Vessel Growth in The Ischemic Hindlimb of The Tight Skin Mouse

The tight skin mouse (Tsk^?/+) is a model of scleroderma characterized by impaired vasoreactivity, increased oxidative stress, attenuated angiogenic response to VEGF and production of the angiogenesis inhibitor angiostatin. Low‐level light therapy (LLLT) stimulates angiogenesis in myocardial infarction and chemotherapy‐induced mucositis. We hypothesize that repetitive LLLT restores vessel growth in the ischemic hindlimb of Tsk^?/+ mice by attenuating angiostatin and enhancing angiomotin effects in vivo. C57Bl/6J and Tsk^?/+ mice underwent ligation of the femoral artery. Relative blood flow to the foot was measured using a laser Doppler imager. Tsk^?/+ mice received LLLT (670 nm, 50 mW cm^?2, 30 J cm^?2) for 10 min per day for 14 days. Vascular density was determined using lycopersicom lectin staining. Immunofluorescent labeling, Western blot analysis and immunoprecipitation were used to determine angiostatin and angiomotin expression. Recovery of blood flow to the ischemic limb was reduced in Tsk^?/+ compared with C57Bl/6 mice 2 weeks after surgery. LLLT treatment of Tsk^?/+ mice restored blood flow to levels observed in C57Bl/6 mice. Vascular density was decreased, angiostatin expression was enhanced and angiomotin depressed in the ischemic hindlimb of Tsk^?/+ mice. LLLT treatment reversed these abnormalities. LLLT stimulates angiogenesis by increasing angiomotin and decreasing angiostatin expression in the ischemic hindlimb of Tsk^?/+ mice.