Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

四角晶相HfO2(001)表面原子和电子结构研究

采用基于第一性原理的密度泛函理论研究了四角晶相二氧化铪(t-HfO₂)体相及 其(001)表面的原子几何与电子结构.理论计算结果表明，t-HfO₂(001)表面不会 产生重构现象.与体相电子结构相比, t-HfO₂(001)表面态密度明显高于体相态 密度.其次，表面原子的态密度更靠近费米能级(E_F)，价带往低能量处移动，并 有表面态产生.计算结果表明了t-HfO₂表面禁带宽度明显低于体相的禁带宽度. t-HfO₂(001)的表面态产生以及表面禁带宽度减小是由于Hf原子与O原子的配位 数减少，表面原子周围的环境发生变化而引起的. 关键词： 密度泛函理论 2(001)')" href="#">t-HfO₂(001) 表面电子结构     

利用杨辉三角形对称性推导高阶运动微分方程

利用Mathematica数学软件计算函数r=r(q(t),t)各变量之间偏导和高阶导数的关系，发现具有杨辉三角形对称性.结合杨辉三角形的对称性规律和牛顿第二定律推导出了高阶运动微分方程，并讨论了理想约束系统下的高阶运动微分方程. 关键词： 杨辉三角形 牛顿第二定律 高阶运动微分方程 高阶力变率 高阶速度能量 理想约束     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

A Language for Teaching Discrete-event Simulation

Courses which teach discrete-event simulation are based on many different simulation languages. The requirements for a language to support teaching simulation are discussed. In particular, it is recommended that such languages separate into distinct modules those aspects of simulation which are taught as separate topics. Implementation of the separation is discussed. The SEESIM language, developed as a teaching aid, is described, and examples of its use are given. Straightforward use of SEESIM can be learned quickly, yet the language provides facilities for a staged introduction to advanced concepts of simulation.