Operational Research and Regulation: Theory and Practice

In this Blackett Lecture, Professor Littlechild, Director General of Electricity Supply in the UK's Office of Electricity Regulation, renews acquaintance with some models he has developed over the years, introduces some models he has recently met, and discusses models that it would seem to be worthwhile developing. He concludes that for all concerned in the electricity industry, success depends on ever improving decision-making, in which OR has a vital role.     

A study of density in electron-cyclotron-resonance plasma

A theory is developed for the density profile of low temperature plasmas confined by applied magnetic field and an experiment of the electron-cyclotron-resonance (ECR) plasma is conducted to compare the theoretical prediction and experimental measurements. Due to a large electron mobility along the magnetic field, electrons move quickly out of the system, leaving ions behind and building a space charge potential, which leads to the ambipolar diffusion of ions. In a steady-state condition, the plasma generation by ionization of neutral molecules is in balance with plasma loss due to the diffusion, leading to the electron temperature equation, which is expressed in terms of the plasma size, chamber pressure, and the ionization energy and cross section of neutrals. The power balance condition leads to the plasma density equation, which is also expressed in terms of the electron temperature, the input microwave power and the chamber pressure. It is shown that the plasma density increases, reaches its peak and decreases, as the chamber pressure increases from a small value (0.1 mTorr). These simple expressions of electron temperature and density provide a scaling law of ECR plasma in terms of system parameters. After carrying out an experimental observation, it is concluded that the theoretical predictions of the electron temperature and plasma density agree remarkably well with experimental data     

Spin effects in instanton models

Nonperturbative nolocal structure of QCD vacuum is well described by instanton model. Specific helicity and flavor structure of zero modes of quarks, in instanton field allows simultaneously to explain some important features of low-and high-energy hadron phenomemology. The basic characteristics of hadron spectrum, partonic sum rules, heavyquark potential etc within the instanton liquid model are briefly discussed.     

A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

On a stochastic nonlinear equation in one-dimensional viscoelasticity

In this paper we discuss an initial-boundary value problem for a stochastic nonlinear equation arising in one-dimensional viscoelasticity. We propose to use a new direct method to obtain a solution. This method is expected to be applicable to a broad class of nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations.

     

Multicriteria decision making under uncertainty

Formalization for problems of multicriteria decision making under uncertainty is constructed in terms of guaranteed and weak estimates. A relevant definition of the vector maximinimax value is given. Parameterization and approximation of maximum, minimax, and maximinimax values based on the inverse logical convolution are suggested. An application for multicommodity networks is considered. Received: December 13, 2000 / Accepted: August 21, 2001?Published online May 8, 2002     

Molecular mobility in hydrogels based on poly(acrylic acid) and macrodiisocyanates

Partially water-swellable polymer networks were synthesized on the basis of poly(acrylic acid) and various macrodiisocyanates. Hydrophilic and hydrophobic local regions were revealed in swollen networks (hydrogels) by means of the spin probe technique. The local mobility in hydrophobic regions depends on the macrodiisocyanate structure; however, it is substantially lower than that in hydrophilic regions for all gels. It was assumed that the presence of hydrophobic and hydrophilic regions and the difference in their local dynamics must have a substantial effect on the pharmacokinetics of release of drugs immobilized in these hydrogels.