A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

Synthesis of methyl ethers of methyl 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside

A convenient method is proposed for the synthesis of all the individual methyl ethers of methyl 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside based on the partial methylation of 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside with dimethyl sulfate in an alkaline medium followed by preparative liquid column chromatography on silica gel of the resulting mixture of methyl ethers.     

An approach to triquinane synthesis using the Pauson-Khand reaction

Tricyclic skeletons have been generated from acyclic enyne precursors by using an intramolecular Pauson-Khand reaction in combination with aldol, Michael and alkylation reactions.     

Isotopic families of contact manifolds for elliptic PDE

A test for a function to be a solution of an elliptic PDE is given in terms of extensions, as solutions, from the boundaries inside the domains belonging to an isotopic family. It generalizes a result of Ehrenpreis for spheres moved along a straight line.

     

CONCEPTUAL DESIGN STUDIES OF AN 84 GHz, 500 kW, CW GYROTRON

The feasibility of an 84 GHz, 500 kW, CW gyrotron for ECRH on an experimental tokamak will be presented in this paper. Mode competition and mode selection procedures are carefully investigated by considering various candidate modes and the TE_10,4 mode is chosen as the operating mode. A conventional cylindrical cavity resonator with weak input and output tapers and parabolic roundings is considered for interaction studies. Self-consistent, both single mode and time-dependent, calculations are carried out and power and efficiencies are computed for a typical set of beam parameters. The results show that an output power of well over 500 kW, CW and efficiency around 40% can be reached without a depressed collector.     

Mass Power Spectrum in a Universe Dominated by the Chaplygin Gas

The mass power spectrum for a Universe dominated by the Chaplygin gas is evaluated numerically from scales of the order of the Hubble horizon to 100 Mpc. The results are compared with a pure baryonic Universe and a cosmological constant model. In all three cases, the spectrum increases with k, the wavenumber of the perturbations. The slope of the spectrum is higher for the baryonic model and smaller for the cosmological constant model, the Chaplygin gas interpolating these two models. The results are analyzed in terms of the sound velocity of the Chaplygin gas and the moment the Universe begins to accelerate.     

Multicriteria decision making under uncertainty

Formalization for problems of multicriteria decision making under uncertainty is constructed in terms of guaranteed and weak estimates. A relevant definition of the vector maximinimax value is given. Parameterization and approximation of maximum, minimax, and maximinimax values based on the inverse logical convolution are suggested. An application for multicommodity networks is considered. Received: December 13, 2000 / Accepted: August 21, 2001?Published online May 8, 2002     

Studies on amine hydrothiocyanates. IV. Thermal decomposition studies using TG

The thermal decomposition of piperidine hydrothiocyanate, piperazine hydrothiocyanate, and the dihydrothiocyanates of ethylenediamine and 1,3-diaminopropane has been studied using TG. Piperidine hydrothiocyanate decomposes in a single step while the dihydrothiocyanates follow more complicated decomposition patterns yielding H₂S and half of the organic moiety first. The second step involves the loss of H₂S and the remainder of the organic moiety. In each case, complex polymeric materials result. Piperazine hydrothiocyanate also decomposes in two steps, the first involving the loss of half of the piperazine and the second involving the loss of piperazine and H₂S. Kinetic parameters have been determined for all these reactions.