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171.
A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective. 相似文献
172.
C. Daum L. Hertzberger W. Hoogland R. Jongerius S. Peters P. Van Deurzen V. Chabaud A. Gonzalez-Arroyo B. Hyams H. Tiecke P. Weilhammer A. Dwurazny G. Polok M. Rozanska K. Rybicki M. Turala J. Turnau G. Ascoli H. Backer G. Blanar M. Cerrada H. Dietl J. Gallivan M. Glaubmann R. Klanner E. Lorenz G. Lütjens G. Lutz W. Männer U. Stierlin I. Blakey M. Bowler R. Cashmore J. Loken W. Spalding G. Thompson B. Alper C. Damerell A. Gillman C. Hardwick M. Hotchkiss F. Wickens ACCMOR Collaboration 《Zeitschrift fur Physik C Particles and Fields》1981,10(2):95-100
Muon electron pairs were detected in an Al multiplate spark chamber, exposed to a neutrino beam from the CERN PS. The leptons were not accompanied by other particles, except occasionally by protons. The background came mainly from muon associated π0 production, with one decay gamma lost. It was determined empirically, together with the small contribution from υ e reactions. For electron energies above 2 GeV the background is 5.7±1.5 events, whereas 18 (μe)-candidates have been observed. Hence the effect is established, with a rate of about 10?4 as compared to the muonic reactions above 3 GeV. Charm creation as the origin of this (μe)-production process is excluded; heavy neutral lepton production does not fit the kinematics observed. Instead the events are compatible with the two-body decay of an object with variable invariant mass of order 1 GeV, possibly resulting from axion interactions. 相似文献
173.
Chee Sing Yap 《The Journal of the Operational Research Society》1989,40(7):649-658
This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved. 相似文献
174.
J. Berny 《The Journal of the Operational Research Society》1989,40(12):1121-1127
This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included. 相似文献
175.
176.
177.
We consider the growth of a spherical crystal in a supersaturatedsolution. In the first part, existence and uniqueness resultsfor radially symmetric growth are obtained, provided that thesupersaturation is not too large; conversely, when the far-fieldsupersaturation exceeds a critical value, it is shown that theradially symmetric solution ceases to exist in finite time.In the second part, we examine the linear stability of a radiallysymmetric similarity solution (in which the radius grows ast?) to shape perturbations. The results are compared with previousquasi-static analyses, and, in particular, the critical radiusat which the crystal becomes unstable is found to be largerfor small supersaturations, but smaller for large supersaturations,than those predicted by the quasi-static analysis 相似文献
178.
179.
J. Maul I. Strachnov S. Karpuk P. Bernhard A. Oelsner G. Schönhense G. Huber 《Applied Physics A: Materials Science & Processing》2006,82(1):43-47
We report morphologic changes of metallic surfaces at the onset of ablation, starting from gentle ablation to the emergence of ablation craters. The evolution of both observed melting zones and of ablation craters therein are investigated in dependence of the ablation laser fluence for nanosecond ultraviolet laser pulses. Further, consequences of crater formation for cluster synthesis within the released atomic vapor are pointed out. PACS 52.38.Mf; 79.20.Ds; 65.40.De 相似文献
180.
Marí a J. Martí n Dragan Vukotic 《Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society》2006,134(6):1701-1705
We show that every composition operator which is an isometry of the Dirichlet space is induced by a univalent full map of the disk into itself that fixes the origin. This is an analogue of the Hardy space result for inner functions due to Nordgren. The proof relies on the Stone-Weierstrass theorem and the Riesz representation theorem.