On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

The Heat Equation with Initial Data Corrupted by Measurement Error and Missing Data

In this work the Cauchy problem for the one-dimensional heat equation is considered. In contrast to existing literature it is assumed that the initial state f is unknown and that information regarding f is obtained by some process of measurement. To enhance realism, both measurement errors and missing data are allowed for. Under assumptions on f in the Fourier-domain first an approximation to f is derived from the data by means of a novel uncertainty principle. Then, it is studied how this perturbation in the initial state propagates with time.      

Tomographic reconstruction using heuristic Monte Carlo methods

A tomographic reconstruction method based on Monte Carlo random searching guided by the information contained in the projections of radiographed objects is presented. In order to solve the optimization problem, a multiscale algorithm is proposed to reduce computation. The reconstruction is performed in a coarse-to-fine multigrid scale that initializes each resolution level with the reconstruction of the previous coarser level, which substantially improves the performance. The method was applied to a real case reconstructing the internal structure of a small metallic object with internal components, showing excellent results.     

Polyaniline/12-phosphotungstic acid/V<Subscript>2</Subscript>O<Subscript>5</Subscript> nanocomposite and its platinum analog as oxygen reduction electrocatalysts

A guest-host nanocomposite based on electroconducting polyaniline doped with 12-phosphotungstic acid and V₂O₅ as well as its bifunctional analog containing not more than 5 mass% nanosized platinum were obtained. A study was carried out on the structure of these nanocomposites, their redox characteristics, and electrocatalytic activity in the reduction of oxygen. These nanocomposites were found to display catalytic properties in the electrochemical reduction of oxygen, while the presence of even a slight amount of nanosized platinum in the bifunctional composite leads to a significant increase in its electrocatalytic activity. __________ Translated from Teoreticheskaya i éksperimental’naya Khimiya, Vol. 43, No. 5, pp. 307–314, September–October, 2007.     

Exciton Molecules in Quantum Wells: Influence of the Well Width Fluctuations

The influence of the well width fluctuations on the dependence of the binding energy of excitonic complexes in quantum wells is studied by using the path-integral Monte-Carlo technique. The results are compared with available experimental data and a good agreement is found.Postdoctoral researcher of FWO-Vlaanderen     

ESR studies on calcite encrustation on Fili neotectonic fault, Greece

Electron spin resonance (ESR) study was done on calcite encrustation on Fili neotectonic fault surface, Greece. Normally such calcite encrustations on fault surfaces are not observed. Significantly, the ESR study has detected the presence of nitrate NO₃²⁻ radical in this calcite encrustation, havingg _⊥=2.0063±0.0001 and hyperfine coupling constantA _⊥=3.44 mT, the second such detection of nitrate NO₃²⁻ radical following a sample from Scott Glacier, Antarctica. From isochronal thermal annealing measurement the NO₃²⁻ radical was found to be quite stable, only fully annealed at 475°C. This study also shows that the ESR, as a tool, can be suitably applied to date the age of formation of the calcite encrustation with SO₃⁻ as an ESR dating signal by additive γ-ray irradiation. A preliminary estimation indicates the age of formation of calcite precipitation at Fili fault, Greece to be about 5600 years.