强降水持续过程对上海市内交通经济损失评估模型初探

通过探讨极端降水与城市道路交通受灾损失之间的关系确定灾损函数曲线,首先构建城市道路积水排尽模型、积水持续时间模型,以及道路积水的经济损失评估模型等理论模型,再引入与道路抗涝能力相关的社会经济因子,最终构建了一个极端降水对道路交通造成经济损失的估算模型.经检验,该模型具有较好的模拟性能和适用性,且所需输入变量少,计算简便,适合地区经济损失的快速评估.从该模型出发,确定了上海地区逐年极端降水降水强度和总过程降水量的阈值,从而提出一个新的极端降水定义方法——随影响因子变化的固定阈值法,该方法突出了极端降水给社会 关键词： 极端降水 极端降水-经济损失模型 阈值     

全球温度场信息熵的时空特征分析

本文基于信息熵理论定义气象要素信息熵,并运用其分析全球温度场在不同时空尺度上偏离气候态(1971—2000)的不确定性. 研究结果表明:1)温度场气候态信息熵(CE)具有明显的纬向分布特征,总体表现为温度场CE由低纬度地区向中高纬度地区递增,且海陆差异显著,可以较好地区分各个气候带;其垂直变化,在低纬度地区表现为随高度的升高而增加,但在中高纬度地区则以300hPa为界呈准对称分布,在此高度之上其值随高度升高而增加,之下则相反,这一特征在高纬度地区更为明显.2)温度场月信息熵(ME)的季节性差异显著,总体表 关键词： 信息熵 温度场 可预测性     

基于联合熵的旱涝空间场关联性研究

利用一种信息熵空间场相关性测算方法,给出一个具有统计学中相关系数性质的离散空间场相关指数,探讨中国旱涝事件发生的内在规律及其空间分布情况.利用联合熵的概念研究了1470—2000年各年份旱涝分布之间的关联性,通过计算实际和随机旱涝分布场的联合熵的概率密度分布和联合熵矩阵的本征值,发现实际旱涝分布场各年份之间的关联性同随机旱涝分布场相比有明显差别,是非随机的,具有一定的内在相关联系.各年份旱涝分布情况同其余年份之间的平均联合熵,表征了该年份的旱涝分布情况同其他年份旱涝分布之间的关联程度,其值越大,相关越强,反之亦然,气候状态相似程度以1820年为界有明显的准周期特征,周期尺度维持在113年左右,周期强度也较稳定;其后从1820—2000年,准周期的尺度从113年增大至约130年,强度也比前一时期有所下降;对于68年尺度的准周期,在1595—1820年期间比较明显,并且周期尺度从开始的61年上升至81年,周期强度保持稳定,而在其余时期,该尺度均没有明显的准周期特征. 关键词： 旱涝指数 联合熵 空间场相关     

中国近58年温度极端事件的区域特征及其与气候突变的联系

运用动力学自相关因子指数Q分析中国温度的时空变化特征,得到8个不同的动力学温度变化特征区：准噶尔区、 东北区、西北区、西南东区、西南西区、华北区、东南区和中南区.初步讨论了这些特征区的年均温度变化和极端温度年出现天数及其与温度突变的关系,以及不同温度段对中国近58年增暖的可能影响.研究结果表明：（1）准噶尔区、东北区等7个温度特征区近58年的年均温和极端高温的年出现天数均表现为增长趋势,极端低温天数则为降低趋势,极端高温的变化与温度增暖呈正相关,与极端低温则呈负相关.同时,北方涛动、南方涛动 关键词： Q指数')" href="#">Q指数 温度段 极端温度 温度突变     

基于复杂网络研究中国温度变化的区域特征

为分析中国温度变化复杂性的区域特征,利用中国地区435个台站1961—2002年逐日平均温度序列,分别构建温度波动网络,并计算网络拓扑统计性质,给出全国的空间分布图像.顶点RRD,RDD,DRR,DDR,DdR的顶点度异常高,以这些顶点为代表的温度波动模态发生概率较大,对温度变化的趋势预测有一定的指导意义;根据5种顶点的顶点度在全国435个台站中的排行分布,将它们的主要作用区域依次定义为：全国型、次全国型、东部型、西南混合型及混合型.各 关键词： 气候变化 气候复杂网络 拓扑结构 复杂性     

基于二分图的温度网络拓扑性质研究

利用中国地区435个台站1961—2002年逐日平均温度序列,将温度变化发生在9天时间尺度上的特征编码在网络中,通过研究二分图温度网络(BGT网络)中节点与项目的关系,揭示出9天时间尺度上温度变化的特征及其在空间上的拓扑统计性质.网络中各节点RRRD, RrDD, eeed, DRRD, DDRR等所代表的温度波动模态在网络中异常频发,对9天尺度温度变化的预报有一定的指导意义.统计网络的节点度分布,集群系数等拓扑结构特征量,发现BGT网络服从正态分布特征.BGT网络项目内节点度的多样性大体上 关键词： 二分图温度网络 气候系统 拓扑结构     

Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks

A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization （ES）. Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay （1 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay （2 ≤ n ≤ 10）. The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon （EASM） or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years.     

Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific airben sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air-sea system is constructed during the period of 1948-2009. In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift, the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated. Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s, in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately. These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient. Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal values of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height, among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift. We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices. That is to say, abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air-sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices, but also might be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices. Furthermore, at the turning point of 1975, there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific, which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air-sea systems.     

Objective identification research on cold vortex and mid-summer rainy periods in Northeast China

Considering the differences between the Northeast China Cold Vortex(CV) and the Mid-Summer(MS) rainy period and their corresponding atmospheric circulations are comprehensively analyzed, and the objective identification methods of defining the annual beginning and ending dates of Northeast China CV and MS rainy periods are developed respectively.The annual beginning date of the CV(MS) rainy period is as follows. In a period from April to August, if daily regional mean precipitation ryi is larger than yearly regional mean precipitation R(or 2R) on a certain day, the station precipitation rs is larger than the station yearly mean precipitation r(or 2 r) in at least 50% of stations in Northeast China, and this condition is satisfied in the following 2(7) days, then this date is defined as the beginning date of the CV(MS) rainy period.While the definition of the ending date of the MS rainy period shows the opposite process to its beginning date. With this objective identification method, the multi-year average(1981–2010) beginning date of the CV rainy period is May 3, the beginning date of the MS rainy period is June 27, the ending day of the CV rainy period is defined as the day before the beginning date of the MS rainy period, and the ending date of the MS rainy period is August 29. Meanwhile, corresponding anomaly analysis at a 500-h Pa geopotential height, 850-h Pa wind, Omega and relative humidity fields all show that the definitions of the average beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have a certain circulation meaning.Furthermore, the daily evolution of the CV index, meridional and zonal wind index, etc. all show that these objectively defined beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have climate significance.     

自制新型物理实验电路板

本文介绍一种新型电路板的设计、制作和整体安装。该电路板电路原理直观，元件位置分布清晰，外型规范、美观，具有实用推广价值。