基于概率密度分布型变化的突变检测新途径

对于一个稳定的动力系统而言,系统变量的概率密度具有较为稳定的分布型,而当系统的动力学结构发生变化后可能会导致系统变量的分布型发生不同程度的变化.鉴于此,本文从识别系统变量的概率密度分布的微小变化角度出发,将描述时间序列概率分布特征的偏度系数和峰度系数应用于时间序列的突变检测中.数值试验结果表明,偏度系数和峰度系数对突变信号具有很好的识别能力,进而揭示了一条检测突变的新途径.进一步的研究表明,新方法的检测结果对于子序列长度的选择具有较小的依赖性.     

界壳论视野下的天气可预报性

界壳为处在系统外围能卫护系统且与环境进行交换的中介体,它是系统的一部分又和环境相毗邻,因此界壳通常被定义在空间维上.在本文中则从时间维来探讨界壳,基于集合论来论证时间界壳,并由此来阐明天气预报中的初始时刻、预报时段;藉此定义了可预报度,给出了相应的计算公式,并进行了实际计算.所得结果是饶有兴趣的,并与已有的关于天气可预报性的研究结果进行了比较。最令人感兴趣的是天气可预报性竟体现了黄金分割率0.618.     

Spatiotemporal characteristics and water budget of water cycle elements in different seasons in northeast China

In this paper, we study the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitable water, precipitation, evaporation, and water–vapor flux divergence in different seasons over northeast China and the water balance of that area. The data used in this paper is provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF). The results show that the spatial distributions of precipitable water, precipitation, and evaporation feature that the values of elements above in the southeastern area are larger than those in the northwestern area; in summer, much precipitation and evaporation occur in the Changbai Mountain region as a strong moisture convergence region; in spring and autumn, moisture divergence dominates the northeast of China; in winter, the moisture divergence and convergence are weak in this area. From 1979 to 2010, the total precipitation of summer and autumn in northeast China decreased significantly; especially from 1999 to 2010, the summer precipitation always demonstrated negative anomaly. Additionally, other elements in different seasons changed in a truly imperceptible way. In spring, the evaporation exceeded the precipitation in northeast China; in summer, the precipitation was more prominent; in autumn and winter, precipitation played a more dominating role than the evaporation in the northern part of northeast China, while the evaporation exceeded the precipitation in the southern part.The Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis(ERA-Interim) data have properly described the water balance of different seasons in northeast China. Based on ERA-Interim data, the moisture sinks computed through moisture convergence and moisture local variation are quite consistent with those computed through precipitation and evaporation, which proves that ERAInterim data can be used in the research of water balance in northeast China. On a seasonal scale, the moisture convergence has a greater influence than the local moisture variation on a moisture sink, and the latter is variable slightly, generally as a constant. Likewise, in different seasons, the total precipitation has a much greater influence than the evaporation on the moisture sink.     

Lorenz系统的可预报性

定义一个动态窗口，以Lorenz模型为预报方程，通过对落入动态窗口中的粒子数和平均预报X分量随积分时间演化规律的分析，从另一个角度初步研究了Lorenz系统的可预报性问题，并讨论了高斯白噪声对系统可预报性的影响.结果表明，落入动态窗口中的粒子数在一定程度上反映了系统的可预报性，处于不同区域的初值集合预报时限各不相同，且不同区域内的初值对于小扰动的敏感程度不一样；对于不同区域内的初值集合，高斯白噪声对系统的可预报时限的影响各不相同. 关键词： 可预报性 Lorenz 动态窗口     

基于贝叶斯理论的全球海温异常对500 hPa 温度场的影响分析

本文利用经验正交函数(EOF) 将海表温度(SST) 距平场进行分解, 得到一组相互正交的模态构成重构空间, 然后在该空间中展开500 hPa温度场, 进一步借助贝叶斯分析方法定义各个模态对温度场的影响指数, 并研究指数随不同海温分布型(模态) 的变化特征. 结果发现SST场在4-6月份对500 hPa温度场的影响较大, 且气候发生转变后, 不同海温分布型对温度场的影响不同.     

基于近似熵的突变检测新方法

近似熵是一个有效的非线性动力学指数,能够用于表征时间序列的复杂性,通过滑动窗口技术,近似熵对于一维时间序列的动力学结构突变具有一定的识别能力,但其突变检测结果依赖于子序列长度的选择,且不能准确定位突变点.鉴于此,本文提出了一种新的突变检测方法——滑动移除近似熵.测试结果表明,滑动移除近似熵具有检测结果稳定性好、准确性高等特点,明显优于滑动近似熵和Mann-Kendall方法,其在实际观测资料中的应用进一步证实了新方法的可靠性. 关键词： 近似熵 滑动移除近似熵 突变检测     

大尺度环流与中尺度对流的作用研究

气候系统是一个复杂的、开放的非线性系统，具有层次结构. 高层次系统控制着低层次系统的行为，并决定了气候变化的基本形态. 一般地，观测资料或器测资料往往直接记录的是低层次系统的输出结果，它包含了各层次相互作用的信息. 如何从观测资料中提取与分离高层次系统的尺度信息已成为观测资料的非线性时空分布理论和方法的研究热点之一. 目前对气候系统的具体的形式还没有统一的定论. 为了分析问题的方便，引用了一个由Logistic模型与Lorenz模型构建的两层系统模型，在不同的控制参数下，分别应用功率谱分析和小波变换对低层次系统的输出结果进行了分析，进而提取与分离高层次系统的尺度变化信息.     

Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air-sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air-sea system is constructed during the period of 1948-2009.In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift,the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated.Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s,in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately.These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient.Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal values of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height,among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift.We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices.That is to say,abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air-sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices,but also might be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices.Furthermore,at the turning point of 1975,there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific,which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air-sea systems.     

滑动去趋势波动分析与近似熵在动力学结构突变检测中的性能比较

近似熵（ApEn）被认为是一种有效的动力学结构突变检测方法. 将一种新的动力学结构检测方法——滑动去趋势波动分析（MDFA）与ApEn的检测结果进行了比较,检验了新方法的性能. 结果表明,新方法的检测结果几乎不依赖于子序列的长度,而ApEn虽然能在一定程度上识别系统的动力学结构突变,但其检测结果依赖于子序列长度,且不能准确地检测出突变点的位置. 因此,相对于ApEn方法而言,MDFA方法更适合于动力学结构突变检测,其优越性是显而易见的. 关键词： 滑动去趋势波动分析 近似熵 动力学结构突变     

准周期外力驱动下Lorenz系统的动力学行为

本文研究了准周期外力驱动下Lorenz系统的动力学行为，发现当外强迫的振幅达到某一个临界值时，系统的动力学行为将会发生根本性的变化，由此揭示了产生非混沌奇怪吸引子(Strange Nonchaotic Attractor, SNA)的一个新机制：准周期外强迫振幅的加大导致系统由奇怪的混沌吸引子转变为SNA，系统的相空间最终被压缩至一个准周期环上.并且本文的结果表明，外强迫的临界振幅与Lorenz系统Rayleigh数的大小成正比，而其受外强迫频率变化的影响并不大. 关键词： 准周期 Lorenz系统 非混沌奇怪吸引子