Assessing financial distress where bankruptcy is not an option: An alternative approach for local municipalities

The goal of this paper is to build an operational model for evaluating the financial viability of local municipalities in Greece. For this purpose, a multicriteria methodology is implemented combining a simulation analysis approach (stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis) with a disaggregation technique. In particular, an evaluation model is developed on the basis of accrual financial data from 360 Greek municipalities for 2007. A set of customized to the local government context financial ratios is defined that rate municipalities and distinguish those with good financial condition from those experiencing financial problems. The model’s results are analyzed on the 2007 data as well as on a subsample of 100 local governments in 2009. The model succeeded in correctly classifying distressed municipalities according to a benchmark set by the central government in 2010. Such a model and methodology could be particularly useful for performance assessment in the context of several European Union countries that have a similar local government framework to the Greek one and apply accrual accounting techniques.     

Mutual funds performance appraisal using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis

Mutual fund investors are concerned with the selection of the best fund in terms of performance among the set of alternative funds. This paper proposes an innovative mutual funds performance evaluation measure in the context of multicriteria decision making. We implement a multicriteria methodology using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis, on Greek domestic equity funds for the period 2000-2009. Combining a unique dataset of risk-adjusted returns such as Carhart’s alpha with funds’ cost variables, we obtain a multicriteria performance evaluation and ranking of the mutual funds, by means of an additive value function model. The main conclusion is that among employed variables, the sophisticated Carhart’s alpha plays the most important role in determining fund rankings. On the other hand, funds’ rankings are affected only marginally by operational attributes. We believe that our results could have serious implications either in terms of a fund rating system or for constructing optimal combinations of portfolios.     

A multicriteria approach for rating the credit risk of financial institutions

Within the new bank regulatory context, the assessment of the credit risk of financial institutions is an important issue for supervising authorities and investors. This study explores the possibility of a developing risk assessment model for financial institutions using a multicriteria classification method. The analysis is based on publicly available financial data for UK firms. The results indicate that the proposed multicriteria methodology provides promising results compared to well known statistical methods.     

Generating interest rate scenarios for bank asset liability management

Over the last years the Second European Directive on Banking and Financial services demand that financial institutions develop asset liability management tools to identify and measure the various financial risks they encounter. The present paper develops a goal programming ALM model with a simulation analysis, to assist a commercial bank in managing its exposure to interest rate risk taking into account a duration gap framework. An application of the ALM model takes place on a large commercial bank of Greece.     

Regularized estimation for preference disaggregation in multiple criteria decision making

Disaggregation methods have been extensively used in multiple criteria decision making to infer preferential information from reference examples, using linear programming techniques. This paper proposes simple extensions of existing formulations, based on the concept of regularization which has been introduced within the context of the statistical learning theory. The properties of the resulting new formulations are analyzed for both ranking and classification problems and experimental results are presented demonstrating the improved performance of the proposed formulations over the ones traditionally used in preference disaggregation analysis.     

Optimization of nearest neighbor classifiers via metaheuristic algorithms for credit risk assessment

The classification problem consists of using some known objects, usually described by a large vector of features, to induce a model that classifies others into known classes. The present paper deals with the optimization of Nearest Neighbor Classifiers via Metaheuristic Algorithms. The Metaheuristic Algorithms used include tabu search, genetic algorithms and ant colony optimization. The performance of the proposed algorithms is tested using data from 1411 firms derived from the loan portfolio of a leading Greek Commercial Bank in order to classify the firms in different groups representing different levels of credit risk. Also, a comparison of the algorithm with other methods such as UTADIS, SVM, CART, and other classification methods is performed using these data.     

Preface: Regression methods based on OR techniques and computational aspects in management,economics and finance

Annals of Operations Research -     

An evolutionary approach to construction of outranking models for multicriteria classification: The case of the ELECTRE TRI method

Outranking methods constitute an important class of multicriteria classification models. Often, however, their implementation is cumbersome, due to the large number of parameters that the decision maker must specify. Past studies tried to address this issue using linear and nonlinear programming, to elicit the necessary preferential information from assignment examples. In this study, an evolutionary approach, based on the differential evolution algorithm, is proposed in the context of the ELECTRE TRI method. Computational results are given to test the effectiveness of the methodology and the quality of the obtained models.